Internet环境下的网络教学

Internet环境下的网络教学已成为人类进行终身教育和创新教育的最佳平台。文章着重论述了Internet环境下的多模式教学———讲授模式、个别辅导模式、讨论学习模式、探索学习模式、协作学习模式     

中小企业成长的社会网络解释与分析

中小企业成长依赖于外部资源获取,而资源获取渠道又通常产自于由各种社会关系构成的社会网络。本文针对中小企业成长的独特轨迹,认为社会网络理论在中小企业资源获取及在此基础上的持续成长方面具有独到的解释与分析力度。此外,对社会网络的演进模式及其在中小企业资源获取与成长过程中发挥的作用进行了分析。最后,对社会网络理论在中小企业成长方面可能的具体研究应用领域进行了探讨。     

论加强青少年心理健康教育

青少年心理健康教育不容忽视。由于学习压力大,人际交往空间逼仄,存在着严重的心理问题,耐挫能力差。为此,必须通过学校、家庭、社会和学生自我教育四条途径同时进行。     

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for the Evaluation of a Website

Consider a website and the surfers visiting its pages. A typical issue of interest, for example while monitoring an advertising campaign, concerns whether a specific page has been designed successfully, i.e. is able to attract surfers or address them to other pages within the site. We assume that the surfing behaviour is fully described by the transition probabilities from one page to another, so that a clickstream (sequence of consecutively visited pages) can be viewed as a finite-state-space Markov chain. We then implement a variety of hierarchical prior distributions on the multivariate logits of the transition probabilities and define, for each page, a content effect and a link effect. The former measures the attractiveness of the page due to its contents, while the latter signals its ability to suggest further interesting links within the site. Moreover, we define an additional effect, representing overall page success, which incorporates both effects previously described. Using WinBUGS, we provide estimates and credible intervals for each of the above effects and rank pages accordingly.     

论网络资源“电子期刊化”的可持续发展——河北省网络新闻媒介融合发展策略之一

根据对中国电子期刊发展的现状以及河北网络新闻媒体进行电子期刊化发展中的内外部环境、存在的壁垒及对策的分析，并结合电子期刊网上随机抽样调查，探讨网络资源电子期刊化的可持续发展。认为电子期刊已经成为网络新的生力军和新的经济增长点，河北省网络新闻媒体“电子期刊化”发展具有丰富的新闻资源、人力资源和品牌资源，努力突破自身的行业壁垒和技术壁垒，以开放的思想，整合各种资源发行具有河北地方特色的电子期刊，将成为河北网络新闻媒介新的起跑点和新的经济增长点优势。     

对理论联系实际学风发展的历史回顾及现实思考

理论联系实际是我们党的优良学风,是马列主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想一贯坚持的原则。我们党的理论联系实际的优良学风是在党的光辉历程中,在正反两方面经验教训的基础上逐渐形成并发扬光大。大力弘扬理论联系实际的马克思主义优良学风,既是现阶段社会发展的需要,也是党的建设工作客观实际的要求,具有非常重要的实践意义。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

基于旅西日本游客旅游选择行为的西安旅游市场分析

根据在全国六大旅游热点城市所做的旅游市场调查的数据结果，对旅西日本游客的旅游选择行为进行了研究，同时进一步有针对性地对西安日本客源市场进行了SWOT分析，在此基础上，对西安旅游业的发展提出了相关对策建议。     

潜在客户资产测量研究

客户资产由当前客户资产和潜在客户资产两部分组成，对潜在客户资产测量问题尚未有系统的研究。在客户购买行为建模研究的基础上，提出由客户获取预测分析、客户购买行为分析和客户费用分析组成的潜在客户资产测量方法框架，总结了可用的模型，并用实证案例说明；提出利用当前潜在客户资产分析矩阵分析指导投资和管理决策的方法。     

中国节节麦的细胞遗传学研究及有关问题探讨

应用染色体组分析法,对新疆节节麦、黄河流域节节麦、伊朗节节麦和中东节节麦的D染色体组进行了较系统的比较分析,结果表明:新疆节节麦与伊朗、中东两地节节麦在染色体组水平上无明显差异,其差异仅体现在染色体的细微结构组成上;臂内倒位是引起染色体结构组成上细微分化的主要原因。黄河流域节节麦与新疆节节麦的染色体组极为相近;其D组染色体无论在染色体组水平上,还是在染色体细微结构组成上均无差异。本文还就中国节节麦与中国特有六倍体普通小麦的起源演化,中国节节麦种质资源在现代小麦育种中的应用等问题进行了讨论。