Nonparametric estimation of discrete hazard functions

A smoothing procedure for discrete time failure data is proposed which allows for the inclusion of covariates. This purely nonparametric method is based on discrete or continuous kernel smoothing techniques that gives a compromise between the data and smoothness. The method may be used as an exploratory tool to uncover the underlying structure or as an alternative to parametric methods when prediction is the primary objective. Confidence intervals are considered and alternative techniques of cross validation based choices of smoothing parameters are investigated.     

The Effects of Divorce on Men’s Employment and Social Security Histories

Analyses of the economic consequences of divorce have emphasized the negative effect of divorce for women. For men, consequences of divorce are most often believed to be social or psychological. This is not consistent with an economic literature showing the positive effects of marriage on men’s wages. Using a nationally representative life-history survey among men in the Netherlands, this paper reanalyzes the possible negative effects of a divorce for the careers of men. Complete life histories provide information on upward and downward occupational mobility as well as on unemployment and disability. Multivariate event history models show that after divorce, men experience an increased chance of becoming downwardly mobile, an increased chance of becoming unemployed, and an increased chance of becoming disabled. Additional analyses are done to assess whether these effects are spurious, due to the influence of earlier problems that men experienced in their lives, as measured by indicators of employment problems, health problems, and problems in social relationships. While these variables have an effect on the future career, they are not strong enough to eliminate the divorce effect. Implications are discussed for different theoretical hypotheses about the importance of marriage and divorce for men’s employment. Kalmijn, M., 2005, Les effects du divorce sur les histoires professionnelle et socio-médicale des hommes, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 347–366.     

绩效考核对高校教师工作满意度的影响:职业压力的中介作用

在中国高校全面实施校内岗位津贴及配套政策的情境下,探讨绩效考核对教师工 作满意度的影响。大样本调查结果显示,绩效考核对工作满意度的影响有3条路径：绩效考核对工作满意度直接的积极影响;绩效考核通过职业压力的中介作用,间接影响工作满意度;绩效考核通过考核认知的中介作用,影响职业压力,进而影响工作满意度,其中第1条路径的影响最强,第2条路径的影响相对较弱。高校教师这一职业存在高职业满意度、低薪酬满意度并存的现象。     

论社会转型期图书编辑的职业意识

目前,我国正处于社会转型期和信息化高度发达的时代,作为内容产业之一的图书出版行业,面对过分强调出版的产业功能和经济功能,过分强调自然科学的重要性,过分强调“个人英雄主义”,过分强调速度和效率的氛围,图书编辑必须具有较强的职业意识。图书编辑应强化政治责任意识,具有不断提高民族人文素质的意识,加强协作意识,强化精品意识和创新意识。     

Mexican American Fathers' Occupational Conditions: Links to Family Members' Psychological Adjustment

To examine the implications of fathers' occupational conditions (i.e., income, work hours, shift work, pressure, workplace racism, and underemployment) for family members' psychological adjustment, home interviews were conducted with fathers, mothers, and two adolescent offspring in each of 218 Mexican American families. Results underscored the importance of acculturation as a moderator. Fathers' income was negatively associated with depressive symptoms in highly acculturated families but not in less acculturated families. In contrast, fathers' reports of workplace racism were positively associated with depressive symptoms in less acculturated families but not in more acculturated family contexts. These findings were consistent across all 4 family members, suggesting that the "long arm" of the jobs held by Mexican American fathers extends to mothers and adolescent offspring.     

基于教师职业倦怠视角的学校体育教学效果分析

本文从教师自身出发,通过主动调节来缓解和抵制职业倦怠的不利影响,从四个方面来提高高校体育教学效果:明确学校人才培养目标,树立体育信心;坚定教育信念;进一步挖掘学校体育的价值内涵,提高师生对体育的价值认同;通过体育这一载体开展感恩教育。     

农民专业合作社参与新型职业农民培育研究

新型职业农民培育是当前政府的一项重要工作。将农民专业合作社纳入到新型职业农民培育体系当中,可以充分发挥其既联系农民又参与市场运作的优势,提高新兴职业农民培育的实效性。但农民专业合作社参与新型职业农民培育也存在着农户覆盖率低、成员文化水平低、运作不规范等方面的制约因素。最后提出通过政府、农业教学科研单位的支持,农民专业合作社自身规范化建设等方面的努力来推动农民专业合作社参与新兴职业农民培育工作。     

中小型钢铁贸易企业的融资问题

随着中小型钢铁贸易企业融资问题的日益突出,与其密切相关的融资风险问题逐步成为业界关注的热点。中小型钢铁贸易企业由于受各种因素影响,面临融资难的困境:中小型钢铁贸易企业融资需求大,上游钢厂的垄断性较高,下游企业议价能力强;中小型钢铁贸易企业融资难,银行授信难度大,多层次资本市场尚未形成,自身管理存在缺陷。融资风险是中小型钢铁贸易企业筹集资金时所面临的一大难题,融资风险产生的原因有很多:从内因上看,融资结构比例失调,融资的时机和方式选择不当,筹集的资金缺乏有效的管理和运用;从外因上看,包括政策性风险和金融市场风险等。对中小型钢铁贸易企业进行融资风险评估后发现:负债规模普遍过高、担保能力不强,中小型钢铁贸易企业实力较弱,抵质押物补偿性偏弱,经营风险大。对于中小型钢铁贸易企业,争取最大程度的融资并且合理控制融资风险,需要做好以下几个方面:针对行业特点制定稳健的金融决策;优化客户结构;认真做好贷前检查;加强中小型钢铁贸易企业的信贷管理。     

农业区域生产专业化、劳动分工与职业分化——源自茂名市化州杨梅镇浪山村的证据

单家独户或小范围的农业专业化生产可以提高劳动生产率,但必然会受农业分工的有限性制约,影响农村劳动力的劳动分工深化与职业分化。只有在农业区域生产专业化条件下,生产效率提高、交易成本降低、劳动者从中得到的收益增加,才会激励劳动者主动参与到分工与合作的进程中来。浪山村经验表明,当一个地区农业生产形成专业化,主导产业选择正确,规模报酬递增得以实现,＂斯密猜想＂的困境就可能缓解,其潜在的收益会激励劳动者进行劳动分工;而生产专业化的同时,也需要农户之间进行合作来降低交易成本,这必然导致农民职业进一步分化。劳动分工与职业分化水平提升反过来可以集中投资,促进技术发展和人力资本积累,进一步提高专业化水平,由此形成一个良性循环过程。     

多元化选择:业务纵向整合的优势与风险分析

进入21世纪,以信息、资金、技术的跨国界流动为特征的全球化的趋势日益明显。伴随着中国加入WTO,我国市场的对外开放程度逐渐加大,国外企业纷纷进入。在这样一个充满竞争的市场中,没有一个行业可以持续地维持高额利润,也没有哪个企业能够轻易保持持续的竞争优势。这就迫使我国企业要在自己的主营业务稳定增长的基础上积极寻求企业的新的发展空间,多元化经营成为可选择的竞争战略之一。基于对众多国内外案例的研究,本文论述了企业多元化经营过程中业务纵向整合的优势与风险,对于我国企业的多元化决策,有一定的参考价值。