Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Estimation under modified Weibull distribution based on right censored generalized order statistics

In this paper, the maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayes, by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), methods are considered to estimate the parameters of three-parameter modified Weibull distribution (MWD(β, τ, λ)) based on a right censored sample of generalized order statistics (gos). Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methods. Some comparisons are carried out between the ML and Bayes methods by computing the mean squared errors (MSEs), Akaike's information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of the estimates to illustrate the paper. Three real data sets from Weibull(α, β) distribution are introduced and analyzed using the MWD(β, τ, λ) and also using the Weibull(α, β) distribution. A comparison is carried out between the mentioned models based on the corresponding Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test statistic, {AIC and BIC} to emphasize that the MWD(β, τ, λ) fits the data better than the other distribution. All parameters are estimated based on type-II censored sample, censored upper record values and progressively type-II censored sample which are generated from the real data sets.     

Electronic monitoring,an alternative way of preventing aggression and helping social rehabilitation

Abstract

It has been said that Criminal Law is violence not only because of what it punishes, but also because of the way it does it. Violence is present in all human relationships, and as such, it is consubstantial to every system of social control. Despite this, the failure of imprisonment has not been its severity, but its inefficiency regarding social rehabilitation. This lack of efficiency can be palliated through the use of alternative systems of electronic monitoring in the penitentiary context. These alternative systems will not only enable an effective solution to the problem of overcrowded prisons, but will also mitigate the harmful effects of prison. Moreover, these alternative systems represent a good method to prevent future aggressions as well as to facilitate the offender's social rehabilitation. From this point of view, we will first explain the programs of electronic monitoring in Spain and second we will evaluate them in terms of social rehabilitation, cost-benefit analysis, human rights restrictions, privatization and overcrowding in prisons.     

Illustrating Risk: Anaphylaxis Through the Eyes of the Food‐Allergic Child

The risk perception research is widely focused on children as targets of risk. To date, very few studies have consulted with the impacted group to assess the perceptions of risk associated with the exposures of interest. Much less research has investigated the experiences of children at risk for anaphylaxis, their concerns, and the psychosocial stresses associated with risk. The present study explores the perceptions and experiences of Ontario students with anaphylaxis, and their parents regarding school as a safe place in order to inform school policy around risk management and coping. A “child‐centered” analytical framework incorporating illustrative techniques within interpretative analysis is outlined. Five prominent themes: (a) social and environmental barriers to safety, (b) coping strategies, (c) emotional burden of responsibility, (d) balance of responsibility (transitions), and (e) redefining “normal” are discussed. Results found that “child‐centered” techniques empowered children in a process that is meaningful and relevant to their lives. A preliminary framework for understanding what risk means to children highlighted the differences in how they cope in the public sphere of school.     

SERIES REPRESENTATION OF DOUBLY NONCENTRAL t DISTRIBUTION BY USE OF THE MELLIN INTEGRAL TRANSFORM

ABSTRACT

The Mellin integral transform is widely used to find the distributions of products and quotients of independent random variables defined over the positive domain. But it is hardly used to derive the distributions defined over both positive and negative values of the random variables. In this paper, the Mellin integral transform is applied to obtain the doubly noncentral t density and its distribution function in convergent series forms.     

Point estimation of lower quantiles based on two-sampling scheme

ABSTRACT

Consider a two-sampling scheme in which an initial sample is first taken from the underlying population and then by assuming a suitable restriction on this sample, some more data points are observed as a new restricted sample. This sampling scheme is used to do inference about the lower quantiles of the underlying distribution. The results are compared with those of simple random sampling in view of mean squared error and Pitman’s measure of closeness criteria for exponential and uniform distributions. It will be shown that the proposed sampling scheme would improve the performance of the point estimators of the lower quantiles of the population.     

The role of market-oriented relations in public relations: The differing perspectives of managers and practitioners in the U.S. and Taiwan

This study explored the role of market-oriented public relations. The study involved two surveys; one explored the perspectives of business managers and another of the perspectives of public relations practitioners, and compared their views concerning market-oriented and non-market-oriented relations. While business managers and public relations practitioners of non-market-oriented relations valued the contribution of market-oriented public relations to organizational effectiveness in terms of revenue generation and cost reduction, practitioners of market-oriented public relations ascribed their contribution to organizational effectiveness in terms of media publicity and exposure. This paper concludes with a discussion of practical applications and theoretical implications.     

我国高校外语教学的集约化初探

长期以来，我国对专业外语的忽视，使得外语教育形成了起点与终点基本均为公共外语的这种粗放的教育模式，教育目的主要是为了应试而非国际竞争与交流。从外语教育的最终目的来看，在高级公共外语基础上乘势继续专业外语教育，才能从根本上解决我国外语教育集约化问题。就目前而言。培养合格的专业外语的师资不是技术问题、它需要高校前瞻性认识及优惠的政策。     

非单调二元非线性算子方程组的迭代求解

利用锥与半序理论和混合单调算子理论 ,讨论 Banach空间中非单调二元非线性算子方程组解的存在性与唯一性 ,并给出收敛于方程组解的迭代序列和误差估计 ,改进和推广了混合单调算子方程和一元算子方程的某些相应结果 .     

发展中的国际成人环境教育

本文回顾了国际成人环境教育方面的一些主要活动 ,并分析了发展趋势