基于主体不平等的跨国界河流水资源分配的破产博弈研究

基于破产理论和讨价还价博弈,构建水资源分配的破产博弈模型。借鉴国际水法,构建主体在水资源分配谈判中的议价能力评价指标体系,将议价能力运用到破产博弈模型中,突出主体在水资源分配中的不平等性,减少水资源分配量与贡献、需求量和对水资源依赖程度的非对称性;结合主体的谈判破裂点,根据主体满意度函数的联动函数寻找水资源分配的最优解,使分配能同时满足个体理性和集体理性,并对澜沧江-湄公河流域进行实例研究。     

论社会主义市场经济的三个根本问题

坚持和发展社会主义市场经济,必须紧紧抓住和解决好基本制度、生产目的和资源配置这三个根本问题.这三个根本问题也构成了中国特色社会主义政治经济学的核心内容.在基本制度方面,必须坚持公有制主体地位不能动摇,国有经济主导作用不能动摇;坚持按劳分配为主体、使改革发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民.在生产目的上,要满足广大人民日益增长、不断升级和个性化的物质文化和生态环境需要.在解放和发展生产力的同时,保证被解放和发展了的生产力归人民所有,走可持续发展道路.在资源配置方面,社会主义国家由于有公有制经济的全力配合,政府对资源配置才能真正发挥“看得见的手”的作用,当然其效果如何还得看这只手有没有遵循经济发展的客观规律.中国特色社会主义追求的是共同富裕,公有制的存在和发展保证了经济发展成果由人民群众共享,从而中国特色社会主义的效率必然是也必须是最广大人民群众的效率,从而这个效率必然是与公平一致的.     

身份与功能交互下的民间信仰景观——以青海西宁湟中县扎麻隆凤凰山为例

改革开放以后,特别是21世纪以来,“文化带动旅游,旅游搞活经济”的模式在全国已经成为常见的经济形态。在这样的大背景下,许多新建的、基于神话和民间信仰打造的旅游景观,与当地居民及海内外香客对民间信仰宗教化的理解,以及国家的宗教政策形成了一种微妙的平衡。作为一处旅游景观,扎麻隆凤凰山的九天圣都筹建于20世纪末,现已成为区域内闻名的民间信仰道场。扎麻隆凤凰山身份与功能的交互与矛盾,以及扎麻隆村权力格局对其影响无疑是值得关注和研究的现象。     

Prediction intervals for future Weibull residual data

In reliability theory, risk analysis, renewal processes and actuarial studies, the residual lifetimes data play an important essential role in studying the conditional tail of the lifetime data. In this paper, based on some observed ordered residual Weibull data, we introduce different prediction methods for obtaining prediction intervals (PIs) of future residual lifetimes including likelihood, Wald, moments, parametric bootstrap, and highest conditional methods. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the so obtained PIs and one data analysis is performed for illustration purposes.     

On a system of nonhomogeneous components sharing a common frailty

The components of a reliability system subjected to a common random environment usually have dependent lifetimes. This paper studies the stochastic properties of such a system with lifetimes of the components following multivariate frailty models and multivariate mixed proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR) models, respectively. Through doing stochastic comparison, we devote to throwing a new light on how the random environment affects the number of working components of a reliability system and on assessing the performance of a k-out-of-n system.     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.     

关于对贞卜辞同字异形判定的三个问题

对贞卜辞是甲骨文中有特色的文例形式，我们从对贞卜辞的判定、同字异形现象的判定以及两条卜辞刻写先后顺序的判定三个方面来细致研究对贞卜辞，进而为下一步的研究打下基础。     

Hazard rate ordering of the second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR samples

In this paper, we compare the hazard rate functions of the second-order statistics arising from two sets of independent multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates (PHR) samples. It is proved that the submajorization order between the sample size vectors together with the supermajorization order between the hazard rate vectors imply the hazard rate ordering between the corresponding second-order statistics from multiple-outlier PHR random variables. The results established here provide theoretical guidance both for the winner's price for the bid in the second-price reverse auction in auction theory and fail-safe system design in reliability. Some numerical examples are also provided for illustration.     

Modern likelihood inference for the maximum/minimum of a bivariate normal vector

ABSTRACT

We consider the use of modern likelihood asymptotics in the construction of confidence intervals for the parameter which determines the skewness of the distribution of the maximum/minimum of an exchangeable bivariate normal random vector. Simulation studies were conducted to investigate the accuracy of the proposed methods and to compare them to available alternatives. Accuracy is evaluated in terms of both coverage probability and expected length of the interval. We furthermore illustrate the suitability of our proposals by means of two data sets, consisting of, respectively, measurements taken on the brains of 10 mono-zygotic twins and measurements of mineral content of bones in the dominant and non-dominant arms for 25 elderly women.     

Points System:An Universal Beneficial System with Multiple Objectives of Reform on Household Registration System

Reform of China's Household Registration system(HRS) has been entering a new stage and deserves us to research.The paper argues that reform of HRS should have multiple objectives.It examines various local efforts and practices of the reform and claims that the point system is one of the most feasible alternative systems for the HRS that can fit those multiple reform objectives.The system could also be treated as the new institutional basic for public welfare provision and rights allocation,and a new governance means for population issues as well in China's transitional period.