中国粮食生产潜能分析：一个基于“俱乐部 收敛”的视点

我国的粮食单产存在显著的地区差异,不同地区粮食单产的收敛分析有助于预测粮食生产潜能。对1980年至2012年全国30个省区市稻谷、玉米、小麦三种主粮单产数据的收敛分析发现,传统收敛β收敛与σ收敛的分析结果相互冲突,并且与现实不符。而俱乐部收敛分析发现,稻谷单产全国范围内趋于收敛;玉米单产同样在全国范围内收敛;但小麦单产则不存在总体收敛趋势,而是收敛于三个不同的俱乐部。进一步以“俱乐部”内最高单产为参照测算三种主粮历年的生产潜能,预测结果显示,实际产量与潜在产量的差距在不断缩小;三种主粮在2012年的潜在总产量为6.6万亿吨,仍比实际产量高26%;初步估计,未来10—20年之内,三种主粮的增产潜能会保持在10%以上。     

天然气经济评价中应注意的问题及解决方法

我国天然气发展进入开发高潮,在通过对处在蓬勃发展的天然气工业的分析,针对不同类型气藏进行合理地经济评价,应结合天然气田开发的一般规律和效益变化特点,研究不同类型气田不同开发阶段的经济效益分析方法,建立不同的指标预测的数学模型,为气田开发规划制定提供依据。论证了为天然气的开发决策服务,提高气田开发经济效益要注意考虑的四个问题:勘探投资、采气成本、经济产量和气价。     

国内外自然文化遗产保护与开发比较分析

国家重点风景名胜区是国家乃至人类的自然文化遗产资源,必须通过严格的保护和合理的开发,使其世代传承、永续利用。发达国家对自然文化遗产的保护与发展经过长时间的探索,取得了很多的经验;中国的遗产保护事业起步较晚,与世界上先进国家相比有很大差距。国内外遗产资源保护和开发问题理论和实践的分析,对中国科学保护和合理开发遗产资源多有启示。     

Moving On From Supportive Housing (MOSH): Development and evaluation of a transitional skill-building curriculum for providers helping residents exit homeless services

This article describes the development and evaluation of MOSH (Moving On From Supportive Housing), a transitional skill-building curriculum for providers helping residents exit homeless services to mainstream housing without embedded supports. In this evaluation, we assess the feasibility, acceptability, fit, and potential efficacy of the MOSH curriculum to improve proximal provider-level outcomes, including self-efficacy to provide MOSH-related independent living skills and supports. Homeless-services providers (N = 49) from a range of programs and settings participated in the training. Findings from focus groups and pre- and posttest surveys indicate high levels of overall satisfaction with the training. The majority of trainees perceived the training to be useful to their work and potentially useful for service recipients, felt the training would fit well within their existing day-to-day work, and said they were very likely to use MOSH skills in such work. Statistically significant improvements in self-efficacy regarding all skills but one were also found. MOSH holds promise as an intervention that can enhance provider practice and promotion of independent living skills in homeless services. Although these initial findings on MOSH are encouraging, further research will be needed to evaluate provider knowledge gains and effective use of these skills in practice.     

基于系统动力学的普惠性学前教育服务监管研究

随着国家对于二孩、三孩生育政策的放开,提升普惠性学前教育服务的质量,加强普惠性学前教育服务的监管显得尤为重要。文章建构了普惠性幼儿园、政府和入园幼儿家庭三方参与的演化博弈模型,并结合系统动力学方法进行仿真分析,解析各参与主体的动态演化过程及相关变量因素对演化策略的影响。研究表明：在普惠性学前教育服务监管中,演化系统最终会实现(政府积极监管、普惠性幼儿园自律、入园幼儿家庭监督)均衡状态,多个外部变量的共同作用决定着三方参与主体的策略选择;在博弈过程中,政府发挥着显著的主导作用,普惠性幼儿园和入园幼儿家庭的策略选择明显受到政府影响,入园幼儿家庭监督对普惠性幼儿园的策略选择存在明显的间接影响。之后从提升政府的监管效能、建立科学合理的激励与惩罚机制、重视入园幼儿家庭的监督等层面给出了对策建议。     

论外语教学中语言输出的客观标准

语言输出的客观标准是准确与流利,准确与流利的关系问题是外语教学的重要课题.以翻译法为代表的传统教学法强调准确性,创建于20世纪70年代的交际教学法则强调流利性.不同的教学流派对学生学习语言过程中出现错误的态度亦不同,双方各有所长,寻求其可行的最佳平衡点,是外语教学必须面对的现实.     

国际教育服务贸易:我国的对外贸易地位与对策

近年来国际教育服务贸易的发展呈现出了贸易额增长迅速、留学服务成为国际教育服务的主要提供方式、发达国家在国际教育服务贸易领域占据巨大优势和主导地位、高等教育日益国际化等特点。这对我国教育产业面临严峻的挑战,我国教育产业应正视挑战参与国际竞争。     

上海社工职业化模式问题与展望

上海社会经济的发展需要职业化和专业化的社会工作。20世纪90年代中期以来,上海一直在稳步推进社会工作职业化。以授权为特征的职业化的主要内容包括:政府购买服务,民间组织经营,行业自律与管理,注册社工提供专业化服务。在职业化的过程中,上海社会工作在性质定位、需求定位、非政府参与和制度框架等方面还存在一些问题。面向新世纪,上海社会工作职业化需要全面拓展,走近百姓,广泛参与,规范运作。     

Delaying factors for maternal health service utilization in eastern Ethiopia: A qualitative exploratory study

BackgroundIn Ethiopia, maternal health service utilization is still unacceptably low. The societal and cultural factors that constrain women from attending these services have not yet been sufficiently explored. Using qualitative methods, we aimed to explore the factors that delay maternal health service utilization in eastern Ethiopia.MethodA total of 13 audio-recorded focus group discussions were conducted comprising 88 participants. We conducted separate group discussions with reproductive aged women, mothers-in-law, traditional birth attendants, husbands, and Health Extension Workers to capture their knowledge, practices, feelings, thoughts and attitudes towards maternal health service utilization. The recorded sessions were transcribed into the local language and then translated into English for analysis.ResultThe study identified a number of factors that may delay maternal health service utilization. Factors were grouped using the Three Delays model as a framework. Low level of awareness regarding need, poor involvement of husband, perceived absence of health problems, social power, community misperceptions and cultural restrictions, negative attitudes towards male midwives, acceptance of traditional birth attendants and poor social networking were Delay One factors. Lack of physical accessibility and high transportation costs were categorised as Delay Two factors for skilled birth care attendance. Perceived or experienced poor quality of care were categorised as Delay Three factors for both skilled birth and postnatal care utilization.ConclusionDespite the ongoing government measures to improve maternal health service utilization in Ethiopia, numerous factors continue to contribute to delays in service use, which in turn contribute to high maternal mortality.     

Analyzing free-text survey responses: An accessible strategy for developing patient-centered programs and program evaluation

Despite widespread availability of yoga in the Veterans Health Administration (VA), it remains unclear how to best evaluate yoga programs. This is particularly problematic for programs aimed at veterans with mental health concerns, as evaluation typically focuses narrowly upon mental health symptom severity, even though program participants may have other health-related priorities. We analyzed responses to free-text questions on 237 surveys completed by veterans with mental health concerns enrolled in a yoga program at six VA clinics in Louisiana to characterize veteran participants’ experiences with yoga. Qualitative analysis resulted in 15 domains reflecting veterans’ individual health-related values and priorities. We use results to illustrate the potential for analysis of free-text responses to reveal valuable insights into patient experiences, demonstrating how these data can inform patient-centered program evaluation. The approach we present is more accessible to those responsible for decision-making about local programs than conventional methods of analyzing qualitive evaluation data.