Studiengebühren und Matchingqualität

Zusammenfassung  Obwohl Studiengebühren an staatlichen Universit?ten in einigen Bundesl?ndern in Deutschland bereits eingeführt wurden, ist bislang unklar, ob Studiengebühren als Signalling-und Screening-Instrument Informationsasymmetrien auf Hochschulm?rkten verringern k?nnen. Basierend auf einem Modell von Bac (2002) wird die Studienplatzvergabe als einmaliges, nicht-kooperatives Matching-Spiel modelliert. Entgegen der allgemeinen Vermutung wird deutlich, dass die Einführung von Studiengebühren keinesfalls immer zu einer Verbesserung des Matchings zwischen Studienbewerbern und Universit?ten unterschiedlicher Qualit?t führen muss, selbst eine Verschlechterung ist denkbar. Die Betrachtung realer Bildungssysteme mit variablen Studiengebühren gibt Hinweise darauf, dass sich in der Realit?t tats?chlich unterschiedliche Gleichgewichte unterschiedlicher Effizienz eingestellt haben: W?hrend sich die Bildungssysteme Italiens und Portugals in einem effizienten Separating/Screening-Gleichgewicht befinden dürften, wurde in den Bildungssystemen Spaniens und der Schweiz offenbar ein Separating/Semiscreening-Gleichgewicht erreicht. In Gro?britannien scheint sich hingegen ein Pooling/Nonscreening-Gleichgewicht eingestellt zu haben. Für Deutschland lie?e sich nach Einführung variabler Studiengebühren ein Separating/Semiscreening-oder ein Separating/Screening-Gleichgewicht II erwarten.

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Tuition fees and matching quality

Summary  Even though tuition fees in German public universities are started to be introduced, it is not yet clear in how far they may indeed help to overcome the informational asymmetries in higher education and serve as a signalling and screening device. Based on a model by Bac (2002), we analyze the application process of university applicants to universities and the subsequent allocation of university places as a non-cooperative matching game. Unlike the regular supposition, the introduction of tuition fees may not necessarily enhance, but may also worsen the matching between students and faculties of differing quality. Our empirical analysis of different European systems of higher education reveals that — for the case of economics — the Italian and Portuguese systems seem to be in an efficient separating/screening equilibrium while the higher education systems of Switzerland and Spain are more likely to find themselves in a separating/semiscreening equilibrium. In Great Britain, however, we have evidence of a pooling/nonscreening equilibrium. For Germany, following the introduction of variable tuition fees, we would expect a separating/ semiscreening or separating/screening equilibrium II.

Arbeitsgebiete: International vergleichende Personal-und Organisations?konomik, Bildungs-und Hochschul?konomik     

政府与铁路客运市场的关系

目前铁路客运市场价格机制和运行机制是扭曲的 ,但这种扭曲又是必要的 ,合理的。铁路客运市场的改革不能只着眼于市场本身 ,而要从整个国民经济配套改革的角度来看。政府应从总体社会经济效益最大化的原则出发 ,决定铁路企业市场化改革在经济体制改革序列中的时间表。     

Sensitivity Analysis to Evaluate the Impact of Uncertain Factors in a Scenario Tree Model for Classical Swine Fever Introduction

Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters influence model results most. Group screening combined with the statistical techniques of design of experiments and meta-modeling was applied to detect the most important uncertain input parameters among a total of 257 parameters. The response variable chosen was the annual P(CSFV) into the Netherlands. Only 128 scenario calculations were needed to specify the final meta-model. A consecutive one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis was performed with the main effects of this meta-model to explore their impact on the ranking of risk factors contributing most to the annual P(CSFV). The results indicated that model outcome is most sensitive to the uncertain input parameters concerning the expected number of classical swine fever epidemics in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom and the probability that CSFV survives in an empty livestock truck traveling over a distance of 0-900 km.     

Incremental and Average Cost‐Effectiveness Ratios: Will Physicians Make a Distinction?

Physicians are increasingly asked to use cost-effectiveness information when evaluating alternative health care interventions. Little is known about how the way such information is presented can influence medical decision making. We presented physicians with hypothetical screening scenarios with multiple options, varying the type of cost-effectiveness ratios provided as well as whether the scenarios described cancer screening settings that were familiar or unfamiliar. Half the scenarios used average cost-effectiveness ratios, as commonly reported, calculating benefits and costs relative to a no-screening option. The other half used the preferred incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, with each option's benefits and costs calculated relative to the next best alternative. Relative to average cost-effectiveness ratios, incremental cost-effectiveness information significantly reduced preference for the most expensive screening strategies in two of three unfamiliar scenarios. No such difference was found for familiar scenarios, for which physicians likely have established practice patterns. These results suggest that, in unfamiliar settings, average cost-effectiveness ratios as reported in many analyses reported in the literature can hide the often high price for achieving incremental health care goals, potentially causing physicians to choose interventions with poor cost effectiveness.     

基于二次分解策略和模糊时间序列模型的航空客运需求预测研究

提高航空客运需求预测的准确性对于航空公司以及整个航空运输系统的发展都具有重要的现实意义。以往研究普遍采用单一分解策略去处理航空客运需求时序中存在的复杂特征,以此提升组合模型的预测性能。然而传统的分解策略存在着特征提取不完全、分解方法带有固有缺陷等问题,导致组合模型预测效果不能得到充分的提升。为此,本文提出一种基于二次分解策略和模糊时间序列模型的航空客运需求预测方法。该方法首先利用季节调整模型(X12-ARIMA)将原始时序分解成季节成分序列与季节调整后序列,继而利用改进的自适应噪声集成经验模态分解方法(ICEEMDAN)将季节调整后序列分解成一系列不同时间尺度的本征模态函数(IMF)和残差序列(Residue)。然后使用基于模糊C均值算法(FCM)划分论域区间的FTS模型对季节成分序列、各IMF分量以及残差序列分别进行预测。最后将各分量序列的预测结果进行集成,重构出航空客运需求的预测值。实证结果表明,本文所提出的二次分解策略表现显著优于传统的分解策略,并且本文所提出模型对于航空客运需求预测有着较高的准确性。     

基于GLM的贝叶斯变量与模型选择

针对非正态响应的部分因子试验,当筛选试验所涉及的因子数目较大时,提出了基于广义线性模型(generalized linear models,GLM)的贝叶斯变量与模型选择方法.首先,针对模型参数的不确定性,选择了经验贝叶斯先验.其次,在广义线性模型的线性预测器中对每个变量设置了二元变量指示器,并建立起变量指示器与模型指示器之间的转换关系.然后,利用变量指示器与模型指示器的后验概率来识别显著性因子与选择最佳模型.最后,以实际的工业案例说明此方法能够有效地识别非正态响应部分因子试验的显著性因子.     

Are midwifery clients in Ontario making informed choices about prenatal screening?

BackgroundInformed choice is often lacking in women's decisions about prenatal screening.AimThe aim of this study is to evaluate how well midwives in Ontario, Canada are facilitating informed choice in this area.MethodsAn Internet-based survey was used to investigate 171 midwifery clients’ knowledge, attitude towards and experience of prenatal genetic screening tests, and to determine the proportion of study participants who made an informed choice about prenatal screening.FindingsAll participants demonstrated adequate knowledge of prenatal screening. The vast majority (93.0%) of participants made an informed choice. Participants who chose to screen had lower knowledge scores than those who opted out of screening. Client satisfaction rates in regard to care received in this area ranged from 97% to 100%.ConclusionsResults of this study suggest that Ontario midwives are effective in conveying information on prenatal genetic screening, contributing to high levels of client knowledge and satisfaction in comparison to similar studies in other jurisdictions.     

Health Care and Female Survivors of Childhood Sexual Abuse: Health Professionals' Perspectives

The present study explored health professionals' experiences with adult survivors of child sexual abuse in New Zealand. Face-to-face, semistructured interviews of up to an hour took place with 13 health professionals. The participants were asked about training, screening practices, their response to disclosures, and advice to other health professionals. A model—transition to ethical practice—emerged from the data, where delivering more sensitive health care to child sexual abuse survivors sits on a continuum from lack of awareness of child sexual abuse to delivery of care where all patients are comfortable. We recommend making sensitive care for all as the standard care of practice and providing training for health professionals on how to deal with disclosures.     

Another Way of Talking About Substance Abuse: Substance Abuse Screening and Brief Intervention in a Mental Health Clinic

This article provides experiential evidence on the transportability of the Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) screening tool and brief intervention in a mental health clinic. There is very little published information on implementing screening and brief intervention (SBI) in a mental health setting. Moreover, few SBI projects have reported on clinicians' experiences using the ASSIST. The article documents a successful attempt at implementing the ASSIST and discusses the benefits and challenges of doing SBI in a mental health setting.     

Men,Masculinity, and Cancer: Risk-factor Behaviors,Early Detection,and Psychosocial Adaptation

Abstract

Men and women experience cancer differently. More men than women get cancer, more men than women die from cancer, and men usually adapt less well than women after a cancer diagnosis. In this article, the author suggests that the consequences of male gender-role socialization may explain some of these differences. The focus of the article is on (a) cancer risk-factor behaviors; (b) screening, early detection, symptom recognition, and help seeking; and (c) psychosocial adaptation. Research that has identified gender differences is reviewed and the impact of male gender-role socialization is offered as a potential explanation for these differences. In addition, practice implications for college health professionals are offered.