Modelling heterogeneous space–time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis

Summary. Earthquake intensities are modelled as a function of previous activity whose specific form is based on established empirical laws in seismology, but whose parameter values can vary from place to place. This model is used for characterizing regional features of seismic activities in and around Japan, and also for exploring regions where the actual seismicity rate systematically deviates from that of the modelled rate.     

先进制造业基本特征刍议

本文结合当今先进制造业已具备的几个基本特征分析了我国制造业发展中存在的一些问题 ,并对如何解决这些问题提出了自己的观点与见解     

基于核心能力的企业过程再造

阐述了企业过程再造(BPR)和核心能力的内涵及本质,分析了核心过程与核心能力二者之间的关系,指出企业过程再造不能脱离核心能力这一本质,BPR本质上应该是基于核心能力的再造。给出了基于核心能力实施BPR的6个具体步骤:即识别核心能力,识别核心过程,定义经营业绩,找出问题,确定方案和实施方案。     

非典与中国的电子商务

探讨了非典对于中国电子商务的影响以及电子商务在此期间发挥出的作用、存在的不足，进而提出了关于如何促进中国电子商务进一步发展的思考和建议．     

如何行成关系数据模型到面向对象数据模型的映射

关系数据模型是基于记录的基本数据模型;面向对象数据模型是基于对象的基本数据模型;两种数据模型在某种程度上应存在相互映射和相互转变的可能性,它们的相互映射和相互转变将使关系数据库和面向对象数据库之间的转变成为可能。     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

名词性复合词的意义建构诸理论述评

名词性复合词的意义建构是一个看似简单,实际上非常复杂的过程。传统语法把这一意义建构过程简单化,认为名词性复合词的意义等于各组成部分名词的意义总和。转换生成语言学家 意义特征理论学家也都提出了各自的理论解释,但都有很大的缺陷。概念合成语言学理论对名词性复合词的意义建构做出了比较完整的理论解释,但也有待于进一步的改进。     

中国电子商务的社会环境分析

近十年来,电子商务在全球范围内取得了巨大的发展,逐渐成为一种新型的商务模式,中国的电子商务在经历了一段时间的发展之后,已具备了一定的基础设施环境和技术环境,但在社会环境方面十分薄弱,文章分析了中国在政策和法规、网络消费习惯、信用体系等社会环境方面的现状,指出了目前中国电子商务发展在人才、管理、国民的知识素质、网络消费意识和企业、个人、社会信用等方面的制约因素,最终提出了相应的对策建议。     

Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

中小企业CRM系统的OLAP设计与实现

根据中小企业CRM发展需求,构建了OLAP分析模型,为企业提供决策支持.