Influence diagnostics for the Weibull-Negative-Binomial regression model with cure rate under latent failure causes

In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data.     

Bayesian estimation and influence diagnostics of generalized partially linear mixed-effects models for longitudinal data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to obtain the joint estimates of unknown parameters, nonparametric functions and random effects in generalized partially linear mixed models (GPLMMs), and presents three case deletion influence measures to identify influential observations based on the φ-divergence, Cook's posterior mean distance and Cook's posterior mode distance of parameters. Fisher's iterative scoring algorithm is developed to evaluate the posterior modes of parameters in GPLMMs. The first-order approximation to Cook's posterior mode distance is presented. The computationally feasible formulae for the φ-divergence diagnostic and Cook's posterior mean distance are given. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate our proposed methodologies.     

Diagnostics in elliptical regression models with stochastic restrictions applied to econometrics

We propose an influence diagnostic methodology for linear regression models with stochastic restrictions and errors following elliptically contoured distributions. We study how a perturbation may impact on the mixed estimation procedure of parameters in the model. Normal curvatures and slopes for assessing influence under usual schemes are derived, including perturbations of case-weight, response variable, and explanatory variable. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology. An example with real-world economy data is presented as an illustration.     

粤港澳大湾区背景下珠三角城市群经济一体化与城市关联分析

为研究粤港澳大湾区背景下珠三角经济区各城市区经济之间的联系程度及变化情况,探究广州和深圳两大中心城市在整个珠三角城市群发展过程扮演的角色,选取珠三角九大城市2000～2016年相关经济数据,一方面从GDP、劳动和资本3个方面运用KLD散度对珠三角城市群的经济一体化程度进行测算;另一方面结合引力模型和ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验以及Granger因果关系等分析方法对珠三角城市群内经济体之间的经济关联性进行实证分析。研究认为,珠三角城市群经济一体化程度呈现两阶段发展特征,在2013年之前呈逐渐加强趋势,但随后不断减弱;劳动和资本一体化程度整体上远高于GDP一体化程度,经济发展不平衡对珠三角城市群经济一体化程度影响较大;广州经济发展的虹吸效应明显,深圳经济发展的独立性较强,两大中心城市对城市群内部其他经济体经济发展的拉动作用有待加强。广州要继续发挥服务和教育产业优势,积极寻求与其经济合作潜力较大的城市探索互利共赢的交流模式;深圳应积极探寻与其他地区供求互补产业之间的合作可能性;调动具有较高经济合作潜力但不存在双向因果关系或任何经济发展联系的城市组合,探索适合彼此经济发展的合作途径;积极推进粤港澳大湾区建设,加强珠三角资源配置范围,积极探索与香港、澳门合作机会,实现湾区内产业互动发展。     

论浅阅读时代报纸影响力面临的挑战与对策

多元传媒的崛起催生了浅阅读时代的到来,受众阅读方式的改变与更新使作为传统媒介的报纸影响力面临着前所未有的挑战.因此,报纸传媒要提高自己的影响力,就须在提高传播力、公信力和整合力等方面下功夫,以提高自己的信息服务价值,使社会交流更加有效和通畅.     

明朝对中朝朝贡的组织管理及其影响

朝贡的组织与管理是明朝朝贡制度完善的具体体现,从中央到地方,都有专门的机构和人员负责朝贡事务,不仅设置完备的机构,在朝贡的组织过程中也有条不紊,有章可循.对朝鲜的特例,使明朝与朝鲜的朝贡关系比其他朝贡国更为密切,给两国之间的政治、经济、文化发展带来了深刻的影响.     

An Experiment on the Social Facilitation of Gambling Behavior

Research and theory regarding the social facilitation effect generates the expectation that the presence of other gamblers (or co-actors) in a gaming venue is likely to intensify individual gambling behavior and magnify losses. Fifty male and 66 female participants (116 total) played a computer-simulated electronic gaming machine with a fixed winning sequence, followed by an indefinite losing sequence. Measures of the intensity of gambling behavior included the final payout (a direct measure of losses), average bet-size, number of trials played, and the speed of play. Some participants received false feedback from the computer designed to suggest that other gamers in adjacent rooms were playing and sometimes winning at the same game. Persons who received both sight and sound information, including winning bells and instant messages regarding the wins of other (fake) players, placed more bets and lost more money compared to the other conditions with less information.     

论金评本《西厢记》对朝鲜半岛汉文小说的影响——以汉文小说《广寒楼记》为例

金评本《西厢记》对朝鲜半岛汉文小说产生的影响,以《广寒楼记》为最。《广寒楼记》从小说的结构布局、手法和语言风格等方面都从《西厢记》中吸取有益的成分,或直接征引,或化用,对丰富小说人物起了一定的作用,然亦有生搬硬套的毛病。由于《广寒楼记》是在中国古代小说普遍传播朝鲜半岛、并形成巨大影响的情况下接受金评本《西厢记》的,所以,它的接受更加全面地吸收了中国文学中有益的成分,拓宽了朝鲜汉文小说的表现空间,为朝鲜本民族的文学和文化积淀作出了不可磨灭的贡献。     

网络传播对大学生思想道德的影响

网络传播就像一把双刃剑,它既有利于大学生增强主体意识,形成开放的精神,更新学习观念,增强自主学习能力,推动大学生的社会化进程,也容易使大学生的民族认同感弱化,形成思维惰性,模糊大学生的道德评价标准,影响其自律意识的形成。论题分析了网络传播对大学生思想道德的影响,提出了相应的对策与建议。     

网络的外部性分析

以网络外部性来作为分析网络经济效果的切入点 ,不但能清楚了解网络的特性与优势 ,更能对网络优势与其所造成的冲击进行经济分析。无排他性与普遍性是网络最重要也最特殊的特性 ,网络外部性有互依性与非补偿性两项重要的特性。网络的供需调整方式与传统一般产业的供需均衡分析有着很大的差异