Risk of Extreme Events in Multiobjective Decision Trees Part 1. Severe Events

Earlier work with decision trees identified nonseparability as an obstacle to minimizing the conditional expected value, a measure of the risk of extreme events, by the well-known method of averaging out and folding back. This first of two companion papers addresses the conditional expected value that is defined as the expected outcome assuming the exceedance of a threshold β, where β is preselected by the decision maker. An approach is proposed to overcome the need to evaluate all policies in order to identify the optimal policy. The approach is based on the insight that the conditional expected value is separable into two constituent elements of risk and can thus be optimized along with other objectives, including the unconditional expected value of the outcome, by using a multiobjective decision tree. An example of sequential decision making for improving highway capacity is given.     

论我国古代少数民族政权改革的特征

我国古代少数民族政权改革的特征是：学习汉族的先进化、重用汉族知识分子、迁都而治、改革获得成功，这些改革在中华民族化建设方面都起了伟大作用。     

完善无形资产会计核算方法的理论探讨

无形资产管理是企业资产管理的一个重要内容,而无形资产的独特性征给其管理带来了很大难度.本文从无形资产确认理论入手,分析了现行无形资产会计核算方法中存在的主要问题,提出了完善方法,并为企业无形资产的价值管理实践提供了建议.     

Preventing Elder Abuse and Neglect Through Advance Legal Planning

Recent trends in adult protective service literature and legislation reflect a growing interest in advance planning to prevent elder abuse and neglect. This article provides basic planning guidelines and discusses in general terms the most important legal planning documents: the living will, the durable power of attorney for health care, the durable power of attorney, and the last will and testament. It also presents in general terms potential legal, medical, and financial planning tools that may function as alternatives to guardianship. Both the benefits and limitation of these documents and tools are discussed.     

Some sampling effects of pairwise correlated observations on likelihood ratio tests for the difference between two means

We study the effects of the inclusion of pairs of correlated observations in a sample on likelihood ratio tests for the difference in two means. In particular, we assess how the inclusion of correlated data pairs (e.g., such as data inadvertently collected from sib-pairs) affects the sample size requirements necessary for the implementation of a Likelihood Ratio (LR) test for the difference between two means. Our results suggest that correlated data pairs beneficially or adversely effect sample size requirements for an LR test to a degree functionally related to the mixture parameters dictating their relative frequencies in the larger sample on which the test will be performed, the strength of the correlation between the observations, and the size of imbalances in the sample with respect to the number of observations in each group. The relevance and implications of the results for genetic and epidemiologic research are discussed.     

博弈树中结点权值设定方法

博弈树的求解现在都依据结点的权值设定把问题简化。本文就权值设定问题提出一种实现方法，并证明在某些具体问题上能够降低问题求解的复杂度。     

经营性水电站PROT项目资本结构研究

提出用PROT创新项目融资模式解决目前经营性中小水电站存在的一系列问题，提出了资本结构是影响项目成功与否的重要因素；介绍了PROT水电站开发创新模式及资本结构的理论内涵，分析了PROT水电项目中合理的资本结构对项目价值的影响及在PROT水电项目资本结构决策中的影响因素，构建了水电站PROT最佳资本结构模型以降低PROT项目财务风险，获得最大投资回报，从而提高项目价值，为水电站PROT项目创新模式的成功运行提供保障。     

从大学校训看中西方价值诉求的特点

不同民族的价值诉求都具有本民族的精神文化特征。在中西方大学校训中亦如此。中西方大学校训既有共同性的价值诉求,也存在着明显的差异性,从跨文化比较的角度揭示中西方大学校训的异中之同和同中之异,对于推进跨文化交际研究和充分借鉴西方大学校训的优点,以加强我国的校训文化建设,都有很重要的理论和实际意义。     

Seasonal Time Series and Transfer Function Modeling

A simple modification is suggested for the construction of transfer function models relating an output variable Y_t to an input variable X_t when the model for X_t contains operators that cancel out. In addition, the evaluation of transfer function models is discussed by comparing the forecasts with the actual observations.     

低渗储层应力敏感评价方法探讨

应力敏感评价是储层保护以及油气井产能评价的重要依据，尤其对低渗储层更显意义重大。目前国内对油气储层的应力敏感评价方法及标准尚存在争议,通过对国内外曾提出的应力敏感评价