论高校突发事件中辅导员的心理素质

高校突发事件频繁发生,给学生带来不同程度的心理伤害,考量着辅导员的素质和能力。辅导员良好的个性心理品质、有效的心理健康知识、较强的心理教育能力有助于高校突发事件的预防和处置。     

杂合灰色聚类与变精度粗糙模糊集的概率决策方法及应用

在基于粗糙集理论或扩展粗糙集理论的不确定性决策中,仅由数据集无法获得决策表,同时由于决策属性呈现模糊性,以致于难以获取概率决策规则。针对这一类决策问题,基于灰色定权聚类与优势粗糙集变精度方法,本文构建了一种的杂合决策方法。该方法首先利用中心点三角白化权函数的灰色定权聚类方法将包含不同量纲指标的知识表示系统生成多属性决策表,而后运用变精度粗糙模糊集进行决策分析,生成概率决策规则,最后以区域关键技术的选择为例,表明该模型的可行性与实用性。     

Quantifying Potential Human Health Impacts of Animal Antibiotic Use: Enrofloxacin and Macrolides in Chickens

Use of similar or identical antibiotics in both human and veterinary medicine has come under increasing scrutiny by regulators concerned that bacteria resistant to animal antibiotics will infect people and resist treatment with similar human antibiotics, leading to excess illnesses and deaths. Scientists, regulators, and interest groups in the United States and Europe have urged bans on nontherapeutic and some therapeutic uses of animal antibiotics to protect human health. Many regulators and public health experts have also expressed dissatisfaction with the perceived limitations of quantitative risk assessment and have proposed alternative qualitative and judgmental approaches ranging from "attributable fraction" estimates to risk management recommendations based on the precautionary principle or on expert judgments about the importance of classes of compounds in human medicine. This article presents a more traditional quantitative risk assessment of the likely human health impacts of continuing versus withdrawing use of fluoroquinolones and macrolides in production of broiler chickens in the United States. An analytic framework is developed and applied to available data. It indicates that withdrawing animal antibiotics can cause far more human illness-days than it would prevent: the estimated human BENEFIT:RISK health ratio for human health impacts of continued animal antibiotic use exceeds 1,000:1 in many cases. This conclusion is driven by a hypothesized causal sequence in which withdrawing animal antibiotic use increases illnesses rates in animals, microbial loads in servings from the affected animals, and hence human health risks. This potentially important aspect of human health risk assessment for animal antibiotics has not previously been quantified.     

关于几个组合恒等式的证明

利用组合的意义以及通过构造概率模型,证明了几个组合恒等式。     

The predictive distributions of thinning‐based count processes

This paper shows that the term structure of conditional (i.e. predictive) distributions allows for closed form expression in a large family of (possibly higher order or infinite order) thinning‐based count processes such as INAR(p), INARCH(p), NBAR(p), and INGARCH(1,1). Such predictive distributions are currently often deemed intractable by the literature and existing approximation methods are usually time consuming and induce approximation errors. In this paper, we propose a Taylor's expansion algorithm for these predictive distributions, which is both exact and fast. Through extensive simulation exercises, we demonstrate its advantages with respect to existing methods in terms of the computational gain and/or precision.     

Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems

When viewed at a high level, performance assessments (PAs) for complex systems involve two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty, which arises because the system under study can behave in many different ways, and subjective uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge about quantities required within the computational implementation of the PA. Stochastic uncertainty is typically incorporated into a PA with an experimental design based on importance sampling and leads to the final results of the PA being expressed as a complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Subjective uncertainty is usually treated with Monte Carlo techniques and leads to a distribution of CCDFs. This presentation discusses the use of the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk in maintaining a distinction between stochastic and subjective uncertainty in PAs for complex systems. The topics discussed include (1) the definition of scenarios and the calculation of scenario probabilities and consequences, (2) the separation of subjective and stochastic uncertainties, (3) the construction of CCDFs required in comparisons with regulatory standards (e.g., 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the disposal of radioactive waste), and (4) the performance of uncertainty and sensitivity studies. Results obtained in a preliminary PA for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the MACCS reactor accident consequence analysis model, and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessments are used for illustration.     

A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

非阿基米德Menger概率度量空间中算子方程组的解及其对参数的连续性

在非阿基米德Menger概率度量空间中讨论了一类新的类型的算子方程组(以分段不减函数作为比较尺度函数)的解及其关于参数γ的连续依赖性.在此基础上又给出了若干不动点定理.     

Predator-prey system structure in patchy and ephemeral phytotelmata: Aquatic communities in small aroid axils

Mechanisms allowing the persistence of an aquatic predator-prey system in tiny pools (the mean ca. 0.5 ml) held by taro axils were analyzed from the viewpoint of temporal and spatial patterns of habitat use. Predatory larvae of a mosquitoTopomyia tipuliformis concentrated in young axils, while 9 other taxa utilized both young and old axils or concentrated more in older axils. The total prey density was lower in axils with the predator but the density of each prey taxon (except for a few cases) and the number of prey taxa did not differ between axils with and without predators. This indicates thatT. tipuliformis is a general predator and does not influence prey community organization through selective removal of particular prey taxa. Inter-axil distribution ofT. tipuliformis was aggregated in the first instar but uniform in the third and fourth instars due to intraspecific cannibalism, which assures the survival of a single individual under short food supply. Distributions of prey taxa were mostly aggregated, fitting the negative binomial distribution. Thirty seven out of 45 associations of 10 taxa were independent with 3 negative (between the predator and some late-colonizing prey) and 5 positive (between some prey taxa) associations. Probabilistic refuges (produced by independent aggregated distributions) reduced interspecific encounters which may result in competition and predation, and thus probably facilitated prey coexistence. There was no evidence for the importance of predation in structuring the prey community. This system may be prey-dominated in that predator persistence depends on prey community existence but prey community structure depends less on predation.     

Nuclear Plant PRA: How Far Has It Come?

Nearly ten years have passed since the publication in August 1974 of the draft Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400), the first detailed attempt to apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to estimate the public risks posed by commercial nuclear power plants. Now is an opportune time to look back and see how PRA has fared over these ten years. We will not attempt to pass judgement on how the Reactor Safety Study report itself has withstood the test of time, as that task is best left to others less directly involved in preparing the report. Instead, we will examine advances in the understanding, acceptance, and utilization of PRA techniques, as well as technical advances in PRA methods. Some of the significant insights gained from PRAs will be discussed. Finally, some observations on the future of PRA will be offered.