Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

汉口租界的报刊与传播控制

近代汉口新闻事业之发端与繁荣,与租界及租界特殊的传播环境有密切关系。开埠以来,外侨与国人在汉口的五国租界里创办了近百种报刊。租界内的新闻传播受到多方面控制:汉口租界当局的基本章程中有关于新闻传播管理的条例;满清与北洋政府从多方面对租界内的报刊进行钳制;军阀势力与帝国主义列强亦常插手干涉。与上海租界相较,汉口租界的媒介与传播环境仍有自己的特色。     

经济适用住房成本控制体系问题及对策

本文从总结现阶段经济适用房建设的基本模式入手,分析了经济适用房建设中住房成本控制体系中存在的主要问题及其原因,最后提出了若干对策。     

失控的政府与政府的失控

凡立宪国家,不管民主政治发展的实际程度如何,一般都采用分权制衡的权力结构模式,即国家的立法、行政和司法权都由不同的机构来行使。二战后,权力结构的重心不断向行政方面转移,原有的三权分立制衡机制失衡,使得行政权失去应有的制约,导致出现失控的政府;失控的政府致使行政权呈现无限扩大的趋势,导致政府失控。政府失控所带来的政治和社会问题,成为现代各国的一大难题。     

SBR工艺特点及SBR脱氮除磷技术

介绍了序批式活性污泥法(Sequencing Batch Reactor,简称SBR)工艺的产生、发展和特点以及目前脱氮除磷研究的主要进展。     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

大学生网络交往调查研究

网络交往一直深受大学生青睐。笔者就此对266名大学生进行了访谈研究和问卷调研。问卷结构包括:上网时点分布、网名使用情况、交友方式及其发展、E交友积极与消极观念四大因素。基于数理统计结果,提出大学生E交友的八大心理特征。     

司法现代化在我国农村的困境及出路

司法现代化在农村正遭遇着种种困境,这有其深刻的历史背景和现实基础。实现农村的司法现代化,一方面要对传统法律文化进行认真彻底的反思,肃清沿袭至今的消极影响;另一方面则应从制度上保障司法的公正性,在司法领域树立法律的权威。     

论政治运行的协调稳定机制

政治运行过程由政治决策、政治执行、政治协调、政治参与、政治监督等环节组成,可能出现良性、中性或恶性三种不同的结果状态。政治良性运行即政治的协调稳定发展。实现政治的协调稳定发展,社会必须为之提供必要的外部保障,但最根本的途径是要加强政治运行过程各环节的综合建设。     

Statistical Analyses and Modelling of the Mixing Process of Euro Coins in Germany and Europe

This paper reports on the mixing of Euro coins from different countries of origin in Europe, which started on 1 January 2002. There is an interesting conclusion: that the mobility of small and large denominations is different. The long‐term behaviour of the mixing process is studied using a simple deterministic model and data from Germany, France and the Netherlands. The analysis leads to predictions about the future progress of the mixing process.