Local polynomial estimation of Poisson intensities in the presence of reporting delays

Summary.  The system for monitoring suicides in Hong Kong has considerable delays in reporting as the cause of death needs to be determined by a coroner's investigation. However, timely estimates of suicide rates are desirable to assist in the formulation of public health policies. This motivated us to develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the intensity function of a Poisson process in the presence of reporting delays. We give closed form estimators of the Poisson intensity and the delay distribution, conduct simulation studies to evaluate the method proposed and derive their asymptotic properties. The method proposed is applied to estimate the intensity of suicide in Hong Kong.     

世界教育信息化发展及其经验

教育信息化是战后教育发展的最重要发展方向之一。世界教育信息化的发展经历了发端、进一步推进和迅速高涨的发展时期;在每一个阶段各国推进教育信息化的政策、措施和特点等方面都呈现出一些独自的特征。总结世界各国推进教育信息化的经验对我国教育信息化的发展具有重要的启发意义。     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

新农村建设类设计的重要源泉——解读传统徽派建筑聚落空间的创作手法

通过深层次地解读传统徽派建筑聚落空间的几点重要创作手法,强调了保存和发展传统建筑文化的重要性,并认为具有乡土价值的空间创作手法可以成为新农村建设类设计的重要源泉。     

D-efficient window experimental designs

In the paper we present a new method of calculating sampling intervals, so-called windows, allowing an experimenter some flexibility in timing the sample collection, while a minimum required design efficiency for parameter estimation is assured. The method is based on the Equivalence Theorem for D-optimality what makes the length of each window related to the parameter sensitivities. An example of calculating the windows in a pharmacokinetic study is presented. Some other methods of calculating efficient sampling windows are briefly discussed.     

浅析雅俗观在设计创作中的体现

“雅”文化与“俗”文化是组成我国传统艺术中不可或缺的部分,雅俗的观念一直随着社会经济的发展和民间艺术的繁荣而进行着转变。雅俗观通过具体艺术元素的表现同样也体现在设计创作之中。正确地看待雅与俗在设计创作中的体现,它应当是设计师对民族文化理解后的一种自然的情感流露。“雅”文化与“俗”文化在设计中所起的作用都是我们应该重视的,在设计中体现文化内涵,追求“雅俗共赏”。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

建筑与城市设计中的时间观

时间与形式、功能、空间四要素完备才能组成一个完整的建筑 ,运用时间设计的概念 ,分析和解决当今建筑界和城市规划出现的问题是现实的需要     

服装制板、打板在实践应用中的探索

从服装企业生产的角度,阐述了服装制板、打板在生产实践中的具体应用。并结合实践经验,分析总结了针对不同情况与要求如何快速、准确、合理地制板、打板,以便为服装生产企业提供优质、方便、快捷的技术服务,促进服装企业的快速发展。     

上市公司综合评价研究

客观合理地评价上市公司,是投资者、上市公司以及监管机构都非常关注的问题,也是规范发展证券市场的一个重要方面。基于平衡记分卡的原理,提出了我国上市公司的评价指标体系。财务层面的评价采用因子分析法;客户层面、内部层面、学习与创新层面以及综合评价,则是根据模糊三角数的概念构造判断矩阵,利用模糊三角数比较大小的原理进行排序。