全国及省际人力资本水平存量估算

估算全国和省际人力资本水平是经济增长研究所不能回避的问题。当前的研究主要采用教育年限法、物质投入法、生产函数法、人力资本回报法、人力资本特征与收入法和J-F终生收入法等六种方法。多角度比较和判别,可以验证生产函数法测算的各年相对人力资本水平较为可靠。使用生产函数法估算全国和各省的1952-2008年的人力资本存量,可刻画统一单位衡量的全国和各省人力资本水平。总体来说,全国和各省人力资本水平呈增长状态,各省人力资本存量以及增长速度存在明显差异。     

山东抗日根据地的灾荒与救济

抗战时期,山东根据地遭受了严重的天灾敌祸,由此而产生了极大的荒情。根据地党和政府及时采取了多项有力措施:一方面大力放赈救急,另一方面领导根据地军民扩大生产,增加财富。根据地的救荒运动不但为战胜灾荒、争取抗战胜利奠定了基础,而且也推动了社会进步。     

人类学视角中的荣昌陶艺——关于荣昌陶艺的田野调查

荣昌陶器技艺是中国传统陶器技艺的重要组织部分，因其历史悠久、工艺精湛而久负盛名，与江苏宜兴陶、云南建水陶、广西钦州陶并称为中国四大名陶，荣昌又与广东佛山、江苏宜兴一起被誉为中国“三大陶都”。在千百年的传承和发展过程中，荣昌陶器为巴蜀地区人民的生产和生活曾做出过重要贡献。在非物质文化遗产保护热兴起的今天，重新梳理荣昌陶器技艺产生和发展的场境，发掘潜藏在陶器技艺背后的经济和文化动因，能够使我们在文化生态和生产条件发生巨大变化的今天更好地保护、传承和发展荣昌陶艺。     

修正衰减曲线法在低渗气藏动态分析中的应用

摘要：压力是气井和气藏生产动态分析的灵魂，很多动态分析方法都与压力有着直接的联系。然而，由于致密低渗透气藏产量低、压力下降快、关井压力恢复缓慢等生产特征，以及生产方式的限制，在生产过程中很难获得气井或气藏地层压力资料。压降法、产量不稳定分析法和产量递减曲线分析方法是气藏常用的气井生产动态分析方法，但由于地层压力资料缺乏，压降法和产量不稳定分析法也都受到了很大的限制，在衰减递减曲线分析方法的基础上对其进行修正，摆脱了压力资料的限制，通过和压降法对比分析，验证了修正衰减曲线分析方法在生产动态分析中的可靠性。     

Taking Stock of Neighbourhood Planning in England 2011–2016

Neighbourhood planning (NP) as enabled by the 2011 Localism Act in England has precipitated a considerable literature discussing its potential, limitations and likely shortcomings referenced against government rhetoric and the reporting of initial experiences of the process. This paper provides an overview of the current literature on neighbourhood planning and sets out how it has been received and practised across England drawing on empirical evidence. The extent of take-up and the experience of those involved in the first five years of neighbourhood planning is used to consider how community-led planning may be designed and used following operational principles of inclusivity, capacity-building and adding value.     

园林景观规划设计与地域文化

地域文化的缺失导致园林景观规划设计及其实施效果呈现雷同的趋势,通过提出规划设计中地域文化的范畴和意义,强调了体现地域文化在规划设计中的重要性。借助三个实际的规划设计案例从宏观角度提出规划概念应与地域自然特点、人文特点等要素有机结合,从而从微观角度提出设计可采用保留、抽取、融合、再现等手法来体现地域文化。此外,在规划设计中运用地域文化应该注意契合性、创新性、烂漫性及可实施性等的几个方面的问题。     

Joint product assortment,inventory and price optimization to attract loyal and non-loyal customers

In this paper, we analyze the emerging retail practice of carrying a combined product assortment consisting of both regular “standard” products and more fashionable and short-lived “special” products. The purpose of this practice is to increase store traffic by attracting heterogeneous classes of customers, which drives up sales of standard products due to the potential cross-selling effect. Customers who are primarily attracted by special products will also buy some standard products. In this context, we analyze three decisions that are crucial for a retailer׳s commercial success: the product assortment, the inventory levels and the pricing. We propose an optimization model and an iterative heuristic to analyze the trade-offs between the combined product assortment, the inventory level and the price per product when there is limited shelf space. Using numerical experiments, we show that our heuristic can be trusted and that its accuracy improves when the number of products increases. Our findings indicate that to attract more customers for standard products, a retailer may benefit from carrying low priced special products which, if considered in isolation, would be non-profitable. As the cross-selling effect decreases, a retailer should focus more on the standard assortment by increasing its size and decreasing the prices. However, introducing special products and ignoring the cross-selling effect may decrease a retailer׳s profitability. We show that the introduction of special products involves more than just choosing the right specials for non-loyal customers but impacts the global assortment planning, the standard products and the products pricing.     

Tactical production and distribution planning with dependency issues on the production process

Tactical production-distribution planning models have attracted a great deal of attention in the past decades. In these models, production and distribution decisions are considered simultaneously such that the combined plans are more advantageous than the plans resolved in a hierarchical planning process. We consider a two-stage production process, where in the first stage raw materials are transformed into continuous resources that feed the discrete production of end products in the second stage. Moreover, the setup times and costs of resources depend on the sequence in which they are processed in the first stage. The minimum scheduling unit is the product family which consists of products sharing common resources and manufacturing processes. Based on different mathematical modelling approaches to the production in the first stage, we develop a sequence-oriented formulation and a product-oriented formulation, and propose decomposition-based heuristics to solve this problem efficiently. By considering these dependencies arising in practical production processes, our model can be applied to various industrial cases, such as the beverage industry or the steel industry. Computation tests on instances from an industrial application are provided at the end of the paper.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

基于分权视角的城市规划管理体制模式及改革建议

关于我国的城市规划管理权限一直存在＂集中＂与＂放权＂的讨论,并且城市规划管理体制也存在差异。通过对全国部分城市的规划管理体制进行梳理,从市、区（县、市）两级分权视角总结出我国城市规划管理体制中的＂垂直型＂、＂半垂直型＂和＂非垂直型＂三种典型模式,分别以南京、北京和上海为案例分析三种规划管理体制典型模式的主要特点和事权划分,并对其各自的优缺点进行比较,最后提出我国城市规划管理体制改革的若干建议,包括将规划决策权＂上收＂与实施管理重心＂下移＂、建立＂市—区—镇（街）＂三级规划管理机构体系、整合市区两级规划部门内部机构设置形成＂大处室＂和＂大科室＂以及完善城市规划委员会制度等。