Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System

This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.     

碳交易政策下多式联运路径选择问题的鲁棒优化研究

针对碳交易政策下的多式联运路径选择问题,考虑运输时间和单位运费率不确定且其概率分布未知的情况,引入鲁棒优化建模方法对其进行研究。首先利用box不确定集合刻画分布未知的运输时间和运费率,然后在碳交易政策下确定模型的基础上,构建鲁棒性可调节的多式联运路径选择模型,并通过对偶转化得到相对易求解的鲁棒等价模型。实例分析表明,鲁棒模型能较好地处理参数概率分布未知的多式联运路径选择问题,方便决策者根据偏好调整不确定预算水平进行决策。运输时间和单位运费率的不确定性都会影响多式联运路径决策,但是作用机理有所不同。将上述碳交易政策下的模型拓展到其他低碳政策,结果表明多种低碳政策的组合能更好实现多式联运减排。     

资金约束下损失规避零售商的订购和广告协同策略

在损失规避下,探讨了零售商的订购和广告协同决策问题。零售商的初始资金状态存在三种情形：资金充足、资金相对短缺（不需融资）、资金短缺（对外融资）,分别在三种情形下刻画了零售商的最优运营策略,结果表明：零售商用于商品采购和广告的资金产生的边际效用与边际负效用之比相等,且介于1与单位融资资金的使用成本之间;用于两项活动的最后一单位资金产生的边际效用相等。探讨了损失规避、初始资金、融资利率、商品价格及广告促销的敏感性对运营策略的影响：在资金充足或资金短缺下,商品订购量和广告强度随影响因素的变动方向通常相同;在资金相对短缺下,商品订购量和广告强度随影响因素的变动方向则相反。讨论中揭示了一些管理启示。     

On the number of local minima for the multidimensional assignment problem

The Multidimensional Assignment Problem (MAP) is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem occurring in many applications, such as data association, target tracking, and resource planning. As many solution approaches to this problem rely, at least partly, on local neighborhood search algorithms, the number of local minima affects solution difficulty for these algorithms. This paper investigates the expected number of local minima in randomly generated instances of the MAP. Lower and upper bounds are developed for the expected number of local minima, E[M], in an MAP with iid standard normal coefficients. In a special case of the MAP, a closed-form expression for E[M] is obtained when costs are iid continuous random variables. These results imply that the expected number of local minima is exponential in the number of dimensions of the MAP. Our numerical experiments indicate that larger numbers of local minima have a statistically significant negative effect on the quality of solutions produced by several heuristic algorithms that involve local neighborhood search.Partially supported by the NSF grant DMI-0457473.     

基于遗传算法的具有主次仓库的企业资源供应链管理模型研究

本文研究如何在有容量限制的主次仓库间分配客户需求的企业资源供应链管理问题,当主仓库不能满足客户需求时,通过一个次仓库弥补主仓库的不足。首先把该问题构造成一个整数规划模型,其次,运用遗传算法加以解决,实际应用和数值分析说明了该遗传算法在解决这类问题中的有效性和实用生。     

管理行为中的距离难题及距离管理思维

本研究的目的在于对管理行为中的距离难题进行基本的描述,为行为距离提供一种可行的度量方法,并提出相应的距离管理思维。鉴于泛函分析在距离空间描述上有一套较为科学的方法,引用了泛函分析思想来描述距离难题;考虑到行为距离影响因素的模糊性,采用了模糊评价原理来对行为距离进行度量。根据距离难题的模型描述,提出了通过认识和改变人的行为模式来根本解决距离难题的距离管理思维。     

Attacking the Market Split Problem with Lattice Point Enumeration

The market split problem was proposed by Cornuéjols and Dawande as benchmark problem for algorithms solving linear systems with 0/1 variables. Here, we present an algorithm for the more general problem A · x = b with arbitrary lower and upper bound on the variables. The algorithm consists of exhaustive enumeration of all points of a suitable lattice which are contained in a given polyhedron. We present results for the feasibility version as well as for the integer programming version of the market split problem which indicate that the algorithm outperforms the previously published approaches to this problems considerably.     

组合拍卖竞胜标确定问题的混沌搜索算法

组合拍卖能够提高拍卖的效率,还能降低竞标人的风险. 但竞胜标确定问题是一个NP 难题. 在分析该问题特性的基础上,设计了一种嵌入优先适合启发式规则的混沌搜索算法. 与 传统算法相比,该算法具有实现方便,寻优效果好的优点. 实例计算结果表明了算法在解决该 问题的有效性和广阔的应用前景.     

易逝性高新技术产品在衰退期的收入管理问题

通过对处于衰退期的高新技术产品的分析,指出高新技术产品的易逝性现象,并将收入 管理原则运用于衰退期中高新技术产品的价格策略. 针对此类产品的易逝性和需求的随机 性,提出对价格和生产规模进行综合控制的数学模型并给出求解的方法. 算例表明,使用收入 管理方法可以显著提高销售收入,增加企业经济效益.     

中部地区人口对生态环境的影响分析

中部地区包括山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南六省,地处我国内陆腹地,具有承东启西、连接南北的区位优势,在我国经济社会发展格局中占有重要地位。当前中部地区面临着诸多制约其长远发展的矛盾和问题,其中人口与生态环境和谐发展是中部地区面临的一个重要挑战。因此,统筹解决区域人口问题,将人口压力转变为人力资源优势,为区域经济发展提供良好的人口环境和生态环境,对促进中部地区崛起,推动我国区域协调发展具有重要的现实意义。