中国经济平稳增长的总需求结构分析

总需求管理虽是短期性问题,但如果需求结构严重失衡可能带来不利的长期性影响,进而影响到长期供给潜力的实现。从国际比较来看,中国当前的最终消费需求、投资需求和进出口之间不协调。这种不协调会产生许多负面影响。为了保证中国经济的长期平稳增长,需要对这种需求结构进行调整。     

基于BP人工神经网络模型的东盟自由贸易区人才需求趋势预测——兼议云南省的应对措施

随着东盟自由贸易区的快速发展,东盟自由贸易区对人才需求量也将大大增加,因此对东盟自由贸易区人才需求趋势预测就具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文选取影响东盟自由贸易区人才需求数量的几个变量,运用BP人工神经网络模型对东盟自由贸易区人才需求趋势进行预测,并在人才需求预测结果的基础上提出云南省应对措施。     

基于回归分析的国内天然橡胶需求预测分析

依据国内1991-2010年天然橡胶消费量、天然橡胶进口金额、天然橡胶进口量、轮胎销售额、天然橡胶单产的数据,利用EVIEWS3.1软件建立国内天然橡胶需求、供给模型.根据模型使用时间序列分析预测方法,预测未来10年中国天然橡胶的需求趋势.     

Confidence Sets for Cointegrating Coefficients Based on Stationarity Tests

Standard methods for inference in cointegrating systems require all the variables to have exact unit roots and are not at all robust even to slight violations of this condition. In this article, I consider an alternative approach to inference in a cointegrating system. This involves testing the hypothesis that a cointegrating vector takes on a specified value by testing for the stationarity of the associated residual. Confidence sets for the cointegrating vector can be constructed by exploiting the equivalence between tests and confidence sets. This method has the advantage that it remains valid even if the regressors have roots that are not exactly equal to unity.     

随机需求条件下的P2P网络借贷拍卖机制

在P2P网络借贷契约中，提供了一种关于随机借款需求的两阶段关闭式降价拍卖，并构成了借款人的一个最优机制。对此，首先设计借贷契约以确定初始借款需求；随后以事前对称贷款人为基准建立相应的拍卖模型，并进行一次标准的关闭式降价拍卖，再从中标贷款人中获得一个额外的借款需求；最后将这个机制拓展到事前非对称贷款人的情形，以分析非对称情形下的拍卖过程，并通过算例加以说明。这个机制对借款人是最优的，而且借款人和贷款人都比较熟悉这种简单拍卖，因此可以用于改进中国P2P网络借贷市场的交易机制。     

中国城镇居民肉类需求的单位价值弹性估计偏差研究

当前,对中国居民肉类需求的价格弹性估计多是利用汇总数据和用单位价值替代市场价格进行估计,而产品质量变化会导致用单位价值估计的价格弹性有偏。鉴此,利用全国984个样本汇总数据,估计城镇居民对猪牛羊禽肉的各种弹性,并且对利用单位价值估计的单位价值弹性和真实的价格弹性之间的偏差进行估计。结论显示:通过单位价值估计的价格弹性(单位价值弹性)高估了真实的价格弹性;随着收入水平的提高城镇居民对肉类质量水平需求会不断提高,通过单位价值高估的价格弹性程度将更强,因此对单位价值弹性偏差的衡量越发重要。     

Consumer Preferences and Demand for Annuities: Evidence From Hong Kong

Retirees without annuities in Hong Kong confront longevity and investment risks. Despite these risks, there is very limited uptake of annuities. This study identifies product and consumer characteristics that are associated with the demand for annuities in Hong Kong. We conduct a discrete choice experiment and distribute a consumer survey among two independent representative samples of workers aged between 40 and 64. Results suggest that a fixed monthly income and a 10-year guarantee period are two significant product characteristics, while a bequest motive, being married, and an understanding of the annuity are consumer characteristics that are associated with the demand for annuities. Being presented the optimal hypothetical annuity product, approximately one-third of middle-aged workers choose to annuitize their retirement savings. The findings and methods of this study can be applied for designing annuity products in other contexts.     

Exact Estimation of Demand Functions under Block-Rate Pricing

This article proposes an exact estimation of demand functions under block-rate pricing by focusing on increasing block-rate pricing. This is the first study that explicitly considers the separability condition which has been ignored in previous literature. Under this pricing structure, the price changes when consumption exceeds a certain threshold and the consumer faces a utility maximization problem subject to a piecewise-linear budget constraint. Solving this maximization problem leads to a statistical model in which model parameters are strongly restricted by the separability condition. In this article, by taking a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to properly estimate the demand function. We find, however, that the convergence of the distribution of simulated samples to the posterior distribution is slow, requiring an additional scale transformation step for parameters to the Gibbs sampler. These proposed methods are then applied to estimate the Japanese residential water demand function.     

Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area

The recent crisis in some euro area countries is intensively fueling the political and economic policy debate about the effectiveness of the applied adjustment programs. This paper aims to contribute to explaining why the results of these programs could be different across countries, flagging the crucial role of exports. In view of recent economic literature about substitution between domestic and foreign sales, helping exports when domestic demand is adjusting, this paper uses panel data techniques to assess the role of the export structure in explaining this substitution effect in the euro area countries. Building a novel indicator for product concentration, the results suggest that domestic demand developments are more relevant to explaining exports in countries with a lower product concentration index (that is, more diversified exports). This contributes to explain why euro area countries under stress registered different economic performance, in particular the clearly less favorable behavior of Greece, where exports structure is concentrated more strongly in some goods and services than in other euro area countries. With different export behavior the final evaluation of the Greek adjustment would be certainly different. These results suggest that export structure should be taken into consideration when designing or evaluating this type of adjustment programs.     

Dynamic Asymptotically Ideal Models and Finite Approximation

We extend Barnett and Jonas's asymptotically ideal model (AIM) to model for the possibility that the data were generated by a dynamic process. Prediction errors for dynamic and static AIM models are compared for various simulated datasets. Monetary data are also used to evaluate the AIM specifications. There is substantial evidence that an AR(1) correction considerably improves the quality of low-order finite approximations of AIM with the cost of estimating only one additional parameter. Furthermore, restricting a dynamic AIM to approximate only linear homogenous functions often results in severe misspecification.