Corrected confidence intervals for adaptive nonlinear regression models

A nonlinear regression model is considered in which the design variable may be a function of the previous responses. The aim is to construct confidence intervals for the parameter which are asymptotically valid to a high order. This is accomplished by using a tilting argument to construct a first approximation to a pivotal quantity, and then by using a version of Stein's identity and very weak expansions to determine the correction terms. The accuracy of the approximations is assessed by simulation for two well-known nonlinear regression models—the first-order growth or decay model and the Michaelis–Menten model, when one of the two parameters is known. Detailed proofs of the expansions are given.     

湖南省入境旅游流流量与流质的时空变化研究

以1999-2013年湖南省及其各市州入境旅游流流量和流质的相关数据为基础,分析了15年来湖南入境旅游流流量规模和流质的历时性变化,结果表明：15年来,湖南入境旅游流流量逐年上升,平均增速达28.1%;湖南入境旅游流流质指数自2003年开始从优质旅游流水平下跌至低质旅游流水平,随后呈现逐年不断下降的态势;湖南省各市州入境旅游发展除长沙、张家界、岳阳外大都低质低量。总体看来,湖南省入境旅游还处于由粗放型向集约型的转型阶段,其未来的发展任重而道远。     

情绪表达性量表的质量分析

主要对由Krings,mith和Neale(1994)编制,陈会昌等译定的情绪表达性量表的信度和效度进行分析,结果显示,该量表的信度较高,共分离出三个因子:抑制情绪;乐于表达情绪;情绪表达不适。     

数量象似性在广告语言中的修辞效果

数量象似性在广告语言中的修辞效果主要通过表达较复杂的概念意义或较简洁的概念意义取得。前者如冗言、重复、排比、委婉语、夸张、双关等,后者如简单句、祈使句,省略句等。创作者可遵循或违反该原则以达到特定的文体效果。     

钢铁行业节能降耗对全社会用电量的影响

采用比较研究法和灰色关联分析法,找出钢铁行业节能潜力的主要影响因子,建立解释吨钢电耗的计量模型,并采用情景分析法预测钢铁行业未来的耗电情况。在预测钢铁行业产量的基础上,计算钢铁行业节能降耗对全社会用电量的影响,指出如能及时采取加大科技投入力度、增加钢铁行业固定资产投资和稳步提高工业电价等措施,预计2020年钢铁行业可实现节电1 430亿度,约占当年全社会用电量的1.88%。     

论量观念在《现代汉语》教材编写中的重要性

汉语教材中的知识内容按其数量可分为开放性的和封闭性的两类,教材在介绍它们时所采用的对应方法一般是举例法和穷尽法。但是通行《现代汉语》教材存在忽视量观念的倾向,在介绍许多封闭性的知识内容时一味采用举例法,这使学生读者误把封闭性的知识内容当作开放性的知识内容,其后果是严重的。克服这一方法论缺点,可使教材质量大大提高。     

Optimizing Customer Forecasts for Forecast‐Commitment Contracts

We study a “Forecast‐Commitment” contract motivated by a manufacturer's desire to provide good service in the form of delivery commitments in exchange for reasonable forecasts and a purchase commitment from the customer. The customer provides a forecast for a future order and a guarantee to purchase a portion of it. In return, the supplier commits to satisfy some or all of the forecast. The supplier pays penalties for shortfalls of the commitment quantity from the forecast, and for shortfalls of the delivered quantity from the customer's final order (not exceeding the commitment quantity). These penalties allow differential service among customers. In Durango‐Cohen and Yano (2006), we analyzed the supplier's problem for a given customer forecast. In this paper, we analyze the customer's problem under symmetric information, both when the customer is honest and when he strategically orders more than his demand when doing so is advantageous. We show that the customer gains little from lying, so the supplier can use his control over the contract parameters to encourage honesty. When the customer is honest, the contract achieves (near‐)coordination of the supply chain in a great majority of instances, and thus provides both excellent performance and flexibility in structuring contracts.     

Confidence Intervals of Performance Measures for an M/G/1 Queueing System

In this article, we discuss constructing confidence intervals (CIs) of performance measures for an M/G/1 queueing system. Fiducial empirical distribution is applied to estimate the service time distribution. We construct fiducial empirical quantities (FEQs) for the performance measures. The relationship between generalized pivotal quantity and fiducial empirical quantity is illustrated. We also present numerical examples to show that the FEQs can yield new CIs dominate the bootstrap CIs in relative coverage (defined as the ratio of coverage probability to average length of CI) for performance measures of an M/G/1 queueing system in most of the cases.     

Inference Based on Order Statistics from the Generalized Pareto Distribution and Application

ABSTRACT

In this article, we derive exact explicit expressions for the single, double, triple, and quadruple moments of order statistics from the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Also, we obtain the best linear unbiased estimates of the location and scale parameters (BLUE's) of the GPD. We then use these results to determine the mean, variance, and coefficients of skewness and kurtosis of certain linear functions of order statistics. These are then utilized to develop approximate confidence intervals for the generalized Pareto parameters using Edgeworth approximation and compare them with those based on Monte Carlo simulations. To show the usefulness of our results, we also present a numerical example. Finally, we give an application to real data.     

Exact Inference for the pth-Quantile and the Reliability of the Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution with Singly Type II Censoring: A Standard Approach

Starting from a standard pivot, exact inference for the pth-quantile and for the reliability of the two-parameter exponential distribution in case of singly Type II censored samples is developed in this article. Fernandez (2007 Fernandez , A. J. ( 2007 ). On calculating generalized confidence intervals for the two-parameter exponential reliability function . Statistics 41 : 129 – 135 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) first obtained some of the results proposed in this article, but, differently from what are proposed here, and developed his theory starting from a generalized pivot. An illustrative example shows that, with the expressions proposed in this article, it is also possible to overcome some shortcomings raising from the formulas by Fernandez (2007 Fernandez , A. J. ( 2007 ). On calculating generalized confidence intervals for the two-parameter exponential reliability function . Statistics 41 : 129 – 135 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Finally, a new expression for the moments of the pivot is obtained.