指数级数的增长性和值分布

本文研究了随机狄里克莱级数 在随机变量序列{Xn}独立（可不同分布）以及满足等条件时的增长性以及值分布,得到了一些新的结果.     

论列强对洪宪帝制的态度及影响

帝制初起时 ,一战方酣 ,西方列强无暇东顾 ,对华政策大多以日本的意志为意志 ,为了争得对袁世凯政府的控制 ,列强争相怂恿袁世凯称帝。当袁世凯称帝之事呼之欲出、反对之声叠起时 ,日本为了乘中国国体变动之机扰乱中国以达其侵略之目的 ,联合西方列强出面干涉 ,劝告袁世凯延缓帝制 ,煽动中国内部叛乱 ,并对袁世凯施加经济压力。以日本为首的列强的出尔反尔是袁世凯政权走向灭亡的关键性因素之一。     

A Bayesian Adjustment for Covariate Misclassification with Correlated Binary Outcome Data

Estimated associations between an outcome variable and misclassified covariates tend to be biased when the methods of estimation that ignore the classification error are applied. Available methods to account for misclassification often require the use of a validation sample (i.e. a gold standard). In practice, however, such a gold standard may be unavailable or impractical. We propose a Bayesian approach to adjust for misclassification in a binary covariate in the random effect logistic model when a gold standard is not available. This Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach uses two imperfect measures of a dichotomous exposure under the assumptions of conditional independence and non-differential misclassification. A simulated numerical example and a real clinical example are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Our results suggest that the estimated log odds of inpatient care and the corresponding standard deviation are much larger in our proposed method compared with the models ignoring misclassification. Ignoring misclassification produces downwardly biased estimates and underestimate uncertainty.     

Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.     

论政府在社会主义市场经济中的职能定位问题

政府在社会主义市场经济中如何定位一直是理论界争论的焦点之一。通过对市场与政府的关系分析,指出在中国市场和政府结合的最佳途径是以市场为基础,将政府职能转化为以建设公共服务型为重点。     

跨文化交际中的非语言语用失误

非语言交际是交际的一种重要形式。跨文化非语言交际语用失误包括体态语、副语言、客体语和环境语的语用失误。这些失误主要是由于交际双方不同的文化背景和社会环境,以及对认知语境的失误判断引起的。     

The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.     

故障诊断技术的应用

介绍了在工程界已广泛应用的信号分析诊断及尚停留在实验室探索的裂纹分析诊断,模糊分析诊断的工作原理和应用实例。     

WEIGHTED SUMS OF NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED RANDOM VARIABLES

In this paper, we establish strong laws for weighted sums of negatively associated (NA) random variables which have a higher‐order moment condition. Some results of Bai Z.D. & Cheng P.E. (2000) [Marcinkiewicz strong laws for linear statistics. Statist. and Probab. Lett. 43, 105–112,] and Sung S.K. (2001) [Strong laws for weighted sums of i.i.d. random variables, Statist. and Probab. Lett. 52, 413–419] are sharpened and extended from the independent identically distributed case to the NA setting. Also, one of the results of Li D.L. et al. (1995) [Complete convergence and almost sure convergence of weighted sums of random variables. J. Theoret. Probab. 8, 49–76,] is complemented and extended.