试论市场经济下政府的适度规模--兼论我国"吃饭财政"与"建设财政"之争

首先分析了市场经济下政府与市场内在的统一关系 :伴随着公共产品论的提出 ,“私人品”与“公共品”统一于边际效用理论。由于缺乏市场价格引导的政府偏好以更大的规模提供过度的公共品 ,甚至在过大的规模下提供不足的公共品 ,从而出现“政府失灵”。最后分析了我国政府规模的现状及其原因 ,指出我国“吃饭财政”的迅速增长严重挤占了“建设财政”,这正是政府规模低效率膨胀的结果     

李渔剧论的观众立场及其贡献

本文以为李渔戏剧理论的中心是观众 ,围绕观众来探讨剧本的创作、演出、戏剧的功能及其发展等是李渔剧论的最大特色。文章指出 :李渔从观众立场出发提出了“机趣”的戏剧功能观 ,并揭示了观众对戏剧艺术发展负有不可推卸的责任。     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.     

Hypothesis Testing of Hazard Ratio Parameters in Marginal Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data

Marginal hazard models for multivariate failure time data have been studied extensively in recent literature. However, standard hypothesis test statistics based on the likelihood method are not exactly appropriate for this kind of model. In this paper, extensions of the three commonly used likelihood hypothesis test statistics are discussed. Generalized Wald, generalized score and generalized likelihood ratio tests for hazard ratio parameters in a marginal hazard model for multivariate failure time data are proposed and their asymptotic distributions examined. The finite sample properties of these statistics are studied through simulations. The proposed method is applied to data from Busselton Population Health Surveys.     

关于微机应用于教学实习的探讨

本文指出了学生在微机教学实习中出现的若干问题，探讨了解决这些问题的方法。     

我国行政伦理失范成因的社会文化环境分析

当前我国行政伦理失范的重要成因之一是几千年来我国传统文化对人们私人选择和公共选择行为的作用。文章试图通过对中国传统文化中的"官本位"、"人伦文化"以及"非规则化的规则化"3个部分来解释当前行政人员伦理失范行为的文化基础,指出正确地认识社会文化环境在当前发挥的强大惯性和运作基础,对于我国行政伦理的重构具有重要的现实意义。     

Covariates and Random Effects in a Gamma Process Model with Application to Degradation and Failure

The gamma process is a natural model for degradation processes in which deterioration is supposed to take place gradually over time in a sequence of tiny increments. When units or individuals are observed over time it is often apparent that they degrade at different rates, even though no differences in treatment or environment are present. Thus, in applying gamma-process models to such data, it is necessary to allow for such unexplained differences. In the present paper this is accomplished by constructing a tractable gamma-process model incorporating a random effect. The model is fitted to some data on crack growth and corresponding goodness-of-fit tests are carried out. Prediction calculations for failure times defined in terms of degradation level passages are developed and illustrated.     

On rates of convergence to infinitely divisible laws for dependent random variables

Large O and small o approximations of the expected value of a class of functions (modified K-functional and Lipschitz class) of the normalized partial sums of dependent random variables by the expectation of the corresponding functions of infinitely divisible random variables have been established. As a special case, we have obtained rates of convergence to the Stable Limit Laws and to the Weak Laws of Large Numbers. The technique used is the conditional version of the operator method of Trotter and the Taylor expansion.     

Choice of Parametric Accelerated Life and Proportional Hazards Models for Survival Data: Asymptotic Results

We discuss the impact of misspecifying fully parametric proportional hazards and accelerated life models. For the uncensored case, misspecified accelerated life models give asymptotically unbiased estimates of covariate effect, but the shape and scale parameters depend on the misspecification. The covariate, shape and scale parameters differ in the censored case. Parametric proportional hazards models do not have a sound justification for general use: estimates from misspecified models can be very biased, and misleading results for the shape of the hazard function can arise. Misspecified survival functions are more biased at the extremes than the centre. Asymptotic and first order results are compared. If a model is misspecified, the size of Wald tests will be underestimated. Use of the sandwich estimator of standard error gives tests of the correct size, but misspecification leads to a loss of power. Accelerated life models are more robust to misspecification because of their log-linear form. In preliminary data analysis, practitioners should investigate proportional hazards and accelerated life models; software is readily available for several such models.     

Semiparametric Inference Methods for General Time Scale Models

In this paper we consider semiparametric inference methods for the time scale parameters in general time scale models (Oakes, 1995, Duchesne and Lawless, 2000). We use the results of Robins and Tsiatis (1992) and Lin and Ying (1995) to derive a rank-based estimator that is more efficient and robust than the traditional minimum coefficient of variation (min CV) estimator of Kordonsky and Gerstbakh (1993) for many underlying models. Moreover, our estimator can readily handle censored samples, which is not the case with the min CV method.