Effect of systematic sampling on arima models

Given a general homogeneous non-stationary autoregressive integrated moving average process ARIMA(p,d,q), the corresponding model for the subseries obtained by a systematic sampling is derived. The article then shows that the sampled subseries approaches approximately to an integrated moving average process IMA(d,l), l≤(d-l), regardless of the autoregressive and moving average structures in the original series. In particular, the sampled subseries from an ARIMA (p,l,q) process approaches approximately to a simple random walk model.     

Matrix-analytic Models and their Analysis

We survey phase-type distributions and Markovian point processes, aspects of how to use such models in applied probability calculations and how to fit them to observed data. A phase-type distribution is defined as the time to absorption in a finite continuous time Markov process with one absorbing state. This class of distributions is dense and contains many standard examples like all combinations of exponential in series/parallel. A Markovian point process is governed by a finite continuous time Markov process (typically ergodic), such that points are generated at a Poisson intensity depending on the underlying state and at transitions; a main special case is a Markov-modulated Poisson process. In both cases, the analytic formulas typically contain matrix-exponentials, and the matrix formalism carried over when the models are used in applied probability calculations as in problems in renewal theory, random walks and queueing. The statistical analysis is typically based upon the EM algorithm, viewing the whole sample path of the background Markov process as the latent variable.     

Likelihood Inference for Unions of Interacting Discs

Abstract. This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ‐grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation‐based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models.     

On designing an acceptance sampling plan for the Pareto lifetime model

In this paper, the design of reliability sampling plans for the Pareto lifetime model under progressive Type-II right censoring is considered. Sampling plans are derived using the decision theoretic approach with a suitable loss or cost function that consists of sampling cost, rejection cost, and acceptance cost. The decision rule is based on the estimated reliability function. Plans are constructed within the Bayesian context using the natural conjugate prior. Simulations for evaluating the Bayes risk are carried out and the optimal sampling plans are reported for various sample sizes, observed number of failures and removal probabilities.     

On Non-parametric Estimation of the Survival Function with Competing Risks

The non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are derived for survival functions associated with individual risks or system components in a reliability framework. Lifetimes are observed for systems that contain one or more of those components. Analogous to a competing risks model, the system is assumed to fail upon the first instance of any component failure; i.e. the system is configured in series. For any given risk or component type, the asymptotic distribution is shown to depend explicitly on the unknown survival function of the other risks, as well as the censoring distribution. Survival functions with increasing failure rate are investigated as a special case. The order restricted MLE is shown to be consistent under mild assumptions of the underlying component lifetime distributions.     

Estimation of parameters of mixed failure time distribution

The problem of estimation of parameters of a mixture of degenerate and exponential distributions is considered. A new sampling scheme is proposed and the exact bias and the mean square error (MSE) of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters is derived. Moment estimators, their approximate biases and the MSE are obtained. Asymptotic distributions of the estimators are also obtained for both the cases.     

Bayes prediction of number of failures in weibull samples

This work is concerned with the Bayesian prediction problem of the number of components which will fail in a future time interval, when the failure times are Weibull distributed. Both the 1-sample and the 2-sample prediction problems are dealed with, and some choices of the prior densities on the distribution parameters are discussed which are relatively easy to work with and allow different degrees of knowledge on the failure mechanism to be incorporated in the predictive procedure. Useful relations between the predictive distribution on the number of future failures and the predictive distribution on the future failure times are derived. Numerical examples are also given.     

Maximal inequalities for partial sums of independent random vectors with multi dimensional time parameters

We obtain upper and lower bounds on the distribution of the partial sums constructed from a multi-dimensional array of independent random vectors. These bounds include, among others, generalizations of some of the well known classical inequalities such as the converse Kolmogorov and the Skorokhod-Ottaviani maximal inequalities.     

跨文化交际中的语用失误及策略研究

随着跨国交际日益增多,跨文化交际中的语用失误问题突显,由于思维方向不同,文化背景差异、母语负迁移等原因造成交际的冲突和失败。跨文化交际的语用失误需要依靠交际双方的顺应和宽容,提高对目的语文化的领悟力和敏感性去解决。     

三牙轮钻头滑动轴承失效分析

三牙轮钻头轴承的使用寿命直接决定了钻头的寿命。为了弄清三牙轮钻头轴承的失效形式、原因及机理，进一步提高三牙轮钻头轴承的寿命，分别对现场失效的三牙轮钻头轴承进行宏观和微观分析。结果表明，密封系统失效是轴承失效的主要原因之一。同时，轴承所受载荷过大且分布不均，温度过高导致材料表面金属强度和耐磨性降低，以及轴承与牙轮之间配合间隙过大，工作时晃动导致受力不均等原因也是造成牙轮钻头轴承的快速失效的主要原因。