Reliability Research of Dependent Failure Systems Using Copula

The computation of reliability characteristics of a system that consists of dependent components sometimes becomes difficult, especially when a specific type of dependence is not identified. In this paper, some systems with arbitrary dependent components are studied using copula. In the system, the components are dependent on each other and the dependent relations may be either linear or nonlinear correlation. The efficient formulas are presented to compute the reliability characteristics, such as reliability function, failure rate and meantime to failure of series, parallel and k-out-of-n systems. The reliability functions of dependant systems are compared with independent system. At last, the numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results obtained in this paper.     

A class of semiparametric transormation frailty models with application to estimating treatment effects and heterogenity in aids clinical traials

Muitivariate failure time data are common in medical research; com¬monly used statistical models for such correlated failure-time data include frailty and marginal models. Both types of models most often assume pro¬portional hazards (Cox, 1972); but the Cox model may not fit the data well This article presents a class of linear transformation frailty models that in¬cludes, as a special case, the proportional hazards model with frailty. We then propose approximate procedures to derive the best linear unbiased es¬timates and predictors of the regression parameters and frailties. We apply the proposed methods to analyze results of a clinical trial of different dose levels of didansine (ddl) among HIV-infected patients who were intolerant of zidovudine (ZDV). These methods yield estimates of treatment effects and of frailties corresponding to patient groups defined by clinical history prior to entry into the trial.     

On the moment generating functions for integer valued random variables

Abstract

In this note, we give explicit expressions of moment generating functions for integer valued random variables in both univariate and multivariate cases, which extend the results obtained by Nadarajah and Mitov [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 32, 2003, 47–60] and more recently by Chakraborti, Jardim and Epprecht [The American Statistician, 2017], Kwong and Nadarajah [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 2017]. Some examples are also discussed.     

对学生学业成绩实施标准分处理与定比例淘汰制初探

根据教育统计学的思想 ,改革现行的学生学业成绩管理办法 ,将竞争激励机制引入教学管理过程中 ,提出了对学生学业成绩实施标准分处理与定比例淘汰的新的成绩管理模式 ,从而使长期以来形成的“60分万岁”的不良现象 ,基本上得到了解决。     

Adaptive Estimation of the Integral of Squared Regression Derivatives

A problem of estimating the integral of a squared regression function and of its squared derivatives has been addressed in a number of papers. For the case of a heteroscedastic model where smoothness of the underlying regression function, the design density, and the variance of errors are known, the asymptotically sharp minimax lower bound and a sharp estimator were found in Pastuchova & Khasminski (1989). However, there are apparently no results on the either rate optimal or sharp optimal adaptive, or data-driven, estimation when neither the degree of regression function smoothness nor design density, scale function and distribution of errors are known. After a brief review of main developments in non-parametric estimation of non-linear functionals, we suggest a simple adaptive estimator for the integral of a squared regression function and its derivatives and prove that it is sharp-optimal whenever the estimated derivative is sufficiently smooth.     

FPK法在集总参数系统随机温度研究中的应用

应用FPK法研究了集总参数系统在对流和辐射环境下温度随机变化的规律。设激励是均值为0的白噪声且系统参数为常量，在与环境对流换热时，系统随机温度的均值不变，方差与系统时间常数的平方根成反比；在与环境辐射换热时，系统随机温度一般不呈正态分布，其中均值，均方值还与系统确定性温度有关，由此可知，当存在随机激励时，用有热惯性的测温系统精确测定动态温度是不可能的。     

随机-无标度统一混合演化网络模型

根据实际网络的特点,提出了一个随机-无标度统一混合演化网络模型.通过引入一个调节参数p将随机演化网络与(Barabási-Albert)无标度网络统一起来.理论计算和计算机模拟表明,当调节参数p从1变化到0时,网络结构实现了从随机演化网络到BA无标度网络的连续过渡.     

Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high-risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.     

关于岩石破碎的三角形效应研究

本文从分形几何学的角度研究了岩石的断裂规律，从理论上论述了岩石破碎的三角形效应，并给出了一般岩石破碎的数学模型．     

一种定量敏感性问题的随机化调查方法

在敏感性问题的随机化调查中,既有调查个体是否具有敏感属性的二值敏感性问题,即属性特征问题,又有调查特定人群中敏感指标量的“多少”问题,即定量特征敏感性问题.对于定量特征敏感性问题的调查,E ichhorn,H aryre于1983年提出了一种随机化调查方法,并给出了定量敏感问题指标量均值的一个无偏估计.本文提出一种定量特征敏感性问题的随机化调查方法,得到的结果表明,本文提出的方法优于E ichhorn,H aryre(1983)提出的方法.