一种新的两参数威布尔分布的点估值方法

威布尔分布是可靠性学科中的一个重要分布。本文利用灰色系统理论中的方法,提出了一种新的两参数威布尔分布的点估值方法,该方法使用累加生成技术,对累积失效率函数的原始试验数据进行处理,建立了估值公式。该方法简单实用,不需查表或作图,其估值精度满足工程应用的要求,可以得到比较满意的结果.     

Subexponential Distributions — Large Deviations with Applications to Insurance and Queueing Models

This paper presents a fine large‐deviations theory for heavy‐tailed distributions whose tails are heavier than exp(?√t and have finite second moment. Asymptotics for first passage times are derived. The results are applied to estimate the finite time ruin probabilities in insurance as well as the busy period in a GI/G/1 queueing model.     

The multitype branching random walk,I

The limiting behaviour of the multitype branching random walk is studied. A limit theorem is proven for the supercritical process. Steady-state distributions are shown to exist for the subcritical process with immigration, and for the critical transient process beginning with Poisson random fields. An analogue of the exponential limit law is proven for the critical process whose migration process is Brownian motion in two dimensions.     

Variability of Travel Time,Congestion, and the Cost of Travel

The variability of travel time modifies the rush hour traffic and the cost of commuting. The bottleneck model of road congestion with fixed peak-load demand is augmented of an additive random delay. When individuals have (α-β-γ) preferences, there exists a unique Nash equilibrium. The variability of travel time leads to departure rates that are spread more evenly over the rush hour than when travel times are deterministic. This equilibrium mechanism mitigates both congestion and the cost of unreliability. This implies that “single-traveler models,” which treat congestion as an exogenous phenomenon, overestimate the value of reliability for the rush hour. The application with the uniform or with the exponential distribution helps appraise the overestimation.     

市场失灵与政府失灵:民间金融监管的“马歇尔困局”

在民间金融市场中,利率形成机制不畅导致高利贷盛行,融资行为具有典型的投机性和庞氏融资特征,交易合约的成立和执行具有典型的"圈层社会"特征,这些因素导致民间金融市场存在市场失灵现象,需要国家干预以恢复市场效率。然而,现有的监管制度偏离了民间金融风险特质、高涨的民间融资需求和投资人法益保护,与社会认同之间存在着巨大鸿沟,致使监管失灵。只有以商事性民间金融交易行为为监管界限,合理保护适度的融资自由,建立差别化的市场准入制度,将高利贷纳入刑法制裁,完善风险监管配套制度,才能矫正双重失灵现象。     

服务补救研究综述

本文从服务补救的内涵、对顾客感知和行为的影响以及维度、策略等几个方面对服务补救的研究状况进行了分析,探讨了相关的文献研究,并提出了服务补救后续研究的问题和方向。     

双层失灵的必然性与“第三种力量”的现实关照——兼论社会改革视野下的收入分配改革

毋庸讳言,收入分配改革已经成为当前全社会关注的焦点,也引起了学界的高度关注。综观当前学界对于收入分配思路的讨论,主要局限于市场逻辑、政府逻辑和市场与政府结合逻辑的研究范畴中,而或多或少地忽视了收入分配改革作为整体性社会改革系统层面组成部分的重要属性。在市场和政府调节可能呈现同时失灵的局面下,将解决收入分配问题视角移位于社会,借助"第三种力量"的催化效应,使社会各方都有机会分享发展成果,则可能实现收入的优化分配。     

Framing Child Sexual Abuse: A Longitudinal Content Analysis of Newspaper and Television Coverage, 2002–2012

ABSTRACT

The way in which the news media frame child sexual abuse can influence public perception. This content analysis of the child sexual abuse coverage of eight national news organizations in the United States from 2002 to 2012 includes the two dominant events of the Catholic Church and Pennsylvania State University child sexual abuse scandals. Census and systematic stratified sampling techniques were applied to articles obtained from the Lexis/Nexis Academic database, resulting in a sample of 503 articles. Intercoder reliability was ensured by double coding a randomly selected sample. Study findings indicate a shift in the attribution of responsibility of child sexual abuse among news organizations over the past decade from an individual-level problem with individual-level solutions to a societal-level problem with institutional culpability. Nevertheless, individual-level solutions continue to be framed as the best possible solution.     

Suffering in Silence: Child Sexual Molestation and the Black Church: If God Don’t Help Me Who Can I Turn To?

The invasion by another of a child’s inner self causes greater damage to the soul than perhaps any other type of abuse. Each year an estimated 90,000 children are victims of child sexual abuse. Many social institutions that are designed to help in healthy child development have failed to protect children from sexual abuse. The Black church is a major institution within the African American community that provides a plethora of supports for the community. However, it has also come under recent scrutiny for its failure to protect its children from sexual predators from within. The authors of this article discuss the role of the Black church, give theories to explain child sexual molestation, and make recommendations to church leaders and others for prevention and intervention of this problem. Implications for churches, human service providers, and research are also discussed.     

Testosterone deficiency in male heart failure patients and its effect on endothelial progenitor cells

Background: Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are thought to contribute to reendothelialization and neoangiogenesis. Since it is known that EPCs express a testosterone receptor, we wanted to assess the prevalence of testosterone deficiency in patients with CHF and its impact on circulating EPCs. Methods: 137 male patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) were included (age 61?±?13 years; BMI 29?±?5?kg/m²; New York Heart Association classification (NYHA) I: n = 47, NYHA II: n = 51, NYHA III: n = 39). Numbers of different populations of circulating EPCs were quantified using flow cytometry. Levels of free testosterone and EPC-regulating cytokines were determined using ELISA. Results: The prevalence of testosterone deficiency in our University CHF clinic was 39%. However, there was no difference between patients with and without testosterone deficiency regarding their levels of EPCs. Testosterone levels were inversely correlated with age (R² = ?0.32, p = 0.001) and NYHA status (R² = 0.28, p = 0.001) and correlated with cardiorespiratory capacity (R² = 0.26, p = 0.03). Conclusion: Testosterone deficiency is frequent in male patients with CHF but does not appear to impact the regenerative EPCs.