公民诚信、公共信任、信用评价与“道德银行”

诚信与信任具有语词的“家族相似性”和文化同源性。在传统社会,诚信与信任相关,但并不必然导致信任。在现代社会,公民诚信呈现出伦理复杂性,而与之相连的公共信任要么建立在纯粹预期之上,要么建立在利他主义价值观基础上,二者之间存在着巨大的鸿沟。信用既非诚信,也非信任,但又与二者关系密切,信用评价既能反映公民诚信状况,又能为公共信任提供制度保障。“道德银行”以信用评价为公民诚信与公共信任创建了沟通机制和反馈机制,深入挖掘“道德银行”有助于理解三个概念之间的微妙联系与区别。     

组合评价方法的相对有效性分析及应用

Although it is an etfctive method for combination evaluation to solve the inconsistency from dif ferent evaluation conlcusions,different results will still be caused汕en adopting different combination evaluation methods,and this is a new inconsistency.On the basis of introducing the definition of validity and four assumptions,the paper shows an idea comparing different combination evaluation methods.validity through an example,and provides a way to solve the new inconsistency mentioned above.     

高科技中小企业信用风险指标体系及其评价方法

以高科技中小型企业为研究对象,在总结前人的研究成果基础上,结合目前我国高科技中小型企业的自身发展特点,构建了高科技中小型企业的信用风险评价指标体系。通过专家咨询法和文献学习法,主要从财务与非财务指标两方面共选择了19个指标来构建该指标体系,并采用因子分析法和调查问卷法确定了各指标的权重。应用该指标体系对典型案例企业进行了综合评价,认为该指标体系是有效且可行的。     

我国重污染行业上市公司环境经营等级评价研究构思

针对多起因上市公司故意拖延披露事故信息而加剧环境污染损害的现象,我国环境保护部发布相关文件,强制重污染行业上市公司披露环境信息.但仅解决公司环境信息披露规范问题,却不深度创新现行企业环境行为评价制度,环境责任难以内生为企业主动环境战略和环境策略行为,环境污染事故随时可能发生.鉴于日本众多企业通过环境经营实现可持续发展的事实,设计能够深入到企业环境管理具体层面,贯穿企业环境管理战略、计划和绩效三个层次,具备分行业评价能力的我国重污染行业上市公司环境经营等级评价体系将是一个值得研究的问题.对此,着重探讨了该评价体系的理论框架以及今后的研究构思.     

Quality Risk Ratings in Global Supply Chains

Extended enterprises face many challenges in managing the product quality of their suppliers. Consequently characterizing the quality risk posed by value‐chain partners has become increasingly important. There have been several recent efforts to develop frameworks for rating the quality risk posed by suppliers. We develop an analytical model to examine the impact of such quality ratings on suppliers, manufacturers, and social welfare. While it might seem that quality ratings would benefit high‐quality suppliers and hurt low‐quality suppliers, we show that this is not always the case. We find that such quality ratings can hurt both types of suppliers or benefit both, depending on the market conditions. We also find that quality ratings do not always benefit the most demanding manufacturers who desire high‐quality suppliers. Finally, we find that social welfare is not always improved by risk ratings. These results suggest that public policy initiatives addressing risk ratings must be carefully considered.     

故事化：电视节目的突围还是沦陷——以央视科教节目《走近科学》为例

故事化是当下众多电视节目争相采用的一种方式。在创造了高收视率的同时,过度的故事化也让许多电视节目进入＂泛故事化＂甚至＂泛娱乐化＂的误区。中央电视台科教节目《走近科学》可视为电视节目故事化的一个颇具代表性的文本。通过梳理《走近科学》节目的发展历程,我们可以清楚地看到电视节目故事化的优势和弊端。而收视率在推动电视节目＂泛故事化＂的过程中扮演了重要角色,但收视率毕竟不等于收视质量,无法反映观众的满意度。因此,提倡绿色收视率评价体系,强调收视率与满意度的协调发展,才能净化收视环境,维护电视生态,确保故事类电视节目的品质和内涵。     

我国不同付费模式信用评级校验机制研究

我国债券市场刚性兑付被打破后,不断出现高评级债券违约事件。为此,监管部门积极发展多种评级,以期提高债券评级质量。通过理论建模与实证分析,研究了不同付费模式信用评级如何综合发挥校验作用。基于博弈模型的理论分析发现,不同付费模式评级发挥校验作用的机制在于投资者的反应:当投资者付费和发行人付费两种模式评级差值增大,投资者不以单一评级结果进行债券定价,而是根据评级差值调整债券价格。基于2011—2020年企业债评级数据的经验证据显示,随着评级差值增大,发行人付费评级机构会降低后续评级,且评级差值对单一信用评级与债券信用利差之间的负向关系具有抑制作用。进一步检验发现,发行人付费评级机构提供的偏正面的私有信息会降低债券信用利差,而以中债资信为代表的投资者付费评级机构提供的私有信息则不会显著影响债券信用利差,均体现出单一评级模式在定价方面的弊端。因此,监管部门应继续鼓励发展投资者付费评级模式,并鼓励机构投资者发展内部评级,以充分发挥多种评级模式的交叉校验作用。     

城门失火殃及池鱼吗？来自债券违约的分析

近年来,我国债券违约事件频发,对债券市场的平稳运行造成威胁。以2020年11月永煤债券违约为外部冲击,从地区、行业、评级机构与承销商四个层面,基于2020年债券市场日度数据,利用事件研究法与双重差分模型分析了AAA级国有企业债券违约对债券市场影响的溢出效应。研究发现,永煤债券违约事件导致债券一级市场发行规模缩小与发行成本提升,并显著提高了二级债券市场存续债券的回报。从短期市场反应来看,违约事件造成的负面溢出效应(异常回报提升)同时存在于地区、行业、评级机构与承销商层面;从长期影响来看,违约事件导致的存续债券收益率提升的负面冲击仅在地区和行业间存在。异质性分析表明,违约事件对低承付能力地区、低市场竞争程度行业、由内资背景机构评级以及低声誉机构承销的债券负面影响更加显著。进一步检验发现,上述短期负面溢出效应在高等级(AAA)债券组中更加显著,并且评级机构的评价标准并没有受到该违约事件的影响,说明信用评级膨胀问题仍然严重。因此,监管部门应加强对债券市场的引导,从债券市场信息中介(评级机构与承销商等)角度采取措施来防范与降低债券违约风险。     

The Family Unpredictability Scale: Reliability and Validity

We developed the Family Unpredictability Scale (FUS) to better understand the factors that underlie the presence and consequences of family dysfunction. Familial unpredictability is defined as a lack of consistency in family behaviors and regulatory systems. Family researchers and therapists generated and evaluated items, which were self‐administered by married parents who had children aged 2 to 18 (N= 314 ). Principal‐components analysis yielded four subscales (discipline, nurturance, meals, and money; 22 items total) that were internally consistent; confirmatory factor analysis based on a separate subsample yielded an adequate preliminary representation of this factor structure. The FUS related significantly to known measures of family and individual functioning but not to social desirability. The present study provides preliminary reliability, construct validity, and concurrent validity for this new multidimensional, self‐report assessment of family unpredictability. Research and clinical implications are discussed.     

Cross‐Section Regression with Common Shocks

This paper considers regression models for cross‐section data that exhibit cross‐section dependence due to common shocks, such as macroeconomic shocks. The paper analyzes the properties of least squares (LS) estimators in this context. The results of the paper allow for any form of cross‐section dependence and heterogeneity across population units. The probability limits of the LS estimators are determined, and necessary and sufficient conditions are given for consistency. The asymptotic distributions of the estimators are found to be mixed normal after recentering and scaling. The t, Wald, and F statistics are found to have asymptotic standard normal, χ², and scaled χ² distributions, respectively, under the null hypothesis when the conditions required for consistency of the parameter under test hold. However, the absolute values of t, Wald, and F statistics are found to diverge to infinity under the null hypothesis when these conditions fail. Confidence intervals exhibit similarly dichotomous behavior. Hence, common shocks are found to be innocuous in some circumstances, but quite problematic in others. Models with factor structures for errors and regressors are considered. Using the general results, conditions are determined under which consistency of the LS estimators holds and fails in models with factor structures. The results are extended to cover heterogeneous and functional factor structures in which common factors have different impacts on different population units.