Heterogeneity in Parent‐reported Social Skill Development in Early Elementary School Children

Despite known risks associated with aberrant social skill development, there has been a relative dearth of literature on typical developmental changes in social skills over time. In this study, we examine systematic changes in social skills from kindergarten (typical age of 5–6 years) to third grade (typical age of 8–9 years), and focus on systematic heterogeneity across these developmental trajectories. Data came from the National Head Start—Public School Early Childhood Transition Demonstration Project (N = 6964). Mixture models provide evidence for multiple classes of individuals representing heterogeneity in the development of social skills. Classes were defined as a majority class (whose trajectories remained relatively stable over time), an increasing class (whose trajectories increased at a faster rate than the majority class), and a decreasing class (whose trajectories decreased at a faster rate than the majority class). Developmental trends accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in social skill components. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

A simplified taxonomy of 2 × 2 games

All 2 × 2 games are classified into eight configurations, following three natural criteria, and prototypes given for each, especially as concerns the Newcomb and chain-store paradoxes. Two pseudo-dynamic properties, move priority and dynamic inconsistency, are examined in that framework, as well as more specifically, the problem of the origin of social institutions.     

建设工程项目质量实施能力评价研究

建设工程项目质量实施能力评价是建设工程施工前质量监督的重要措施,本文论述了建设工程项目质量实施能力评价的意义,分析了影响质量实施能力的主要因素,构架了实施能力综合评价的指标体系,阐述了综合评价的三个基本功能:反映功能、监测预测功能和比较功能;综合评价的五个特点:具体性、模糊量化性、解释说明性、时间性、综合性和可比性,提出了实施能力评价的组织与机制要求。     

政府宣传对现代燃煤电厂公众支持度的影响——以平江燃煤电厂为例

近年来,中国发生了多起针对燃煤电厂建设的公众抵制事件,影响了现代燃煤发电项目的正常实施。以“平江燃煤电厂事件”为例,分析公众在政府宣传前后对煤电项目的态度变化,应用SIR传染病模型对公众支持率的变化进行系统仿真,通过计算基尼系数对政府宣传效果进行评价。结果表明:传染病模型可以较好地反映公众支持态度的动态变化过程,政府宣传促进了公众支持态度的确立,政府宣传行为的基尼系数值G=0.375<0.4,虽在合理范围内但仍存在优化空间。根据以上研究结果,从大型火电项目决策模式变革和宣传策略实施两个方面提出了政策建议。     

层次分析法在评级中的应用——建立商业银行评级模型

在分析信用评级模型的基础上,充分考虑层次分析法在建立信用评级模型中的优势,进而运用系统工程的思想方法——层次分析法搭建模型。本文的主要工作为:(1)对商业银行信用评级指标体系进行分析,并在我国原有影响较大的指标体系基础上采用专家调查和数理统计的方法,构思新的指标体系;(2)鉴于商业银行信用评级无法完全量化,在商业银行评级的模型研究中使用层次分析法建立评级模型,以达到定量与定性分析相结合的目的。     

Flood Risk,Flood Mitigation,and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals’ adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program—the Community Rating System (CRS)—on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS‐creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two‐stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals’ risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS‐creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.     

英译汉语篇翻译中评分量表的研发

通过设计问卷来调查英译汉语篇翻译的标准,并以问卷调查的结果为依据给英译汉语篇翻译研发了一个分析性的评分量表。实验性地测试了研发的量表:通过计算两个评分员给出分数的α相关系数来判断量表的信度;用回归分析来判断量表分数解释的效度。统计分析的数据表明此量表具有较高的信度和效度。     

Are football referees really biased and inconsistent?: evidence on the incidence of disciplinary sanction in the English Premier League

Summary.  The paper presents a statistical analysis of patterns in the incidence of disciplinary sanction (yellow and red cards) that were taken against players in the English Premier League over the period 1996–2003. Several questions concerning sources of inconsistency and bias in refereeing standards are examined. Evidence is found to support a time consistency hypothesis, that the average incidence of disciplinary sanction is predominantly stable over time. However, a refereeing consistency hypothesis, that the incidence of disciplinary sanction does not vary between referees, is rejected. The tendency for away teams to incur more disciplinary points than home teams cannot be attributed to the home advantage effect on match results and appears to be due to a refereeing bias favouring the home team.     

Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers

Laboratory and field studies of time preference find that discount rates are much greater in the short‐run than in the long‐run. Hyperbolic discount functions capture this property. This paper solves the decision problem of a hyperbolic consumer who faces stochastic income and a borrowing constraint. The paper uses the bounded variation calculus to derive the Hyperbolic Euler Relation, a natural generalization of the standard Exponential Euler Relation. The Hyperbolic Euler Relation implies that consumers act as if they have endogenous rates of time preference that rise and fall with the future marginal propensity to consume (e.g., discount rates that endogenously range from 5% to 41% for the example discussed in the paper).