Has the Lewis Turning Point Arrived in China?—Theoretical Analysis and International Experience

各国农业劳动力占总劳动力的比重随着各国人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减 速下降的趋势, 分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明, 刘易斯转 折点在人均GDP为3,000-4,000美元 (购买力平价2000年国际美元) 之间出现。中国的 人均GDP超越了这一水平, 但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水 平, 这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。

关键词: 刘易斯转折点 劳动力转移 跨国平行数据

Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars (PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000). GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.     

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