Spectral analysis of Markov switching GARCH models with statistical inference

We derive matrix expressions in closed form for the autocovariance function and the spectral density of Markov switching GARCH models and their powers. For this, we apply the Riesz–Fischer theorem which defines the spectral representation as the Fourier transform of the autocovariance function. Under suitable assumptions, we prove that the sample estimator of the spectral density is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Further statistical implications in terms of order identification and parameter estimation are discussed. A simulation study confirms the validity of the asymptotic properties. These methods are also well suited for financial market applications, and in particular for the analysis of time series in the frequency domain, as shown in some proposed real-world examples.     

工业遗产与地缘政治中的“东北接收”（1945—1948年）——对国共两党组织体制的比较分析

本文从国共两党对战后东北接收方案的比较入手，通过考察双方对区域工业遗产作出回应的具体策略及过程，揭示两党在接收中的不同组织困境以及各自的克服之策。复员和动员分别是国共两党在各自区域内的基本组织逻辑，而“条”“块”间的冲突与“统”“分”间的张力则是二者分别面对的结构性困难。在美苏对抗的地缘政治格局下，国民党坚守城市和铁路线，以技术官僚为主体的接收要员发挥空间受限；中共虽退居农村开展土地改革，但能接续既往的根据地建设经验，并促发军政和财经干部在组织上的创新。对东北的接收方案的差异既是两党利用组织原则应对地缘政治和区域制度遗产的体现，更折射出各自建国方略上的差别。从组织体制上来说，东北的接收恰恰是中国国家建设在20世纪中叶的转折点，其所激发出的政党在组织上的创制提供了由战时走向建政的组织上的转化机制。     

社会化服务能否促进农户林业生产要素的投入？

基于全国6省（区）2031个农户的调查数据，以病虫害统防统治服务为例，运用内生转换模型，探寻分工深化背景下的社会化服务对农户林业生产要素投入的影响机理。研究发现：基于反事实假设，病虫害统防统治服务显著提升了农户生产要素的投入水平，比未采用组提高了0.0836。分项而言，农户若不采用服务，林业资金投入和劳动力投入将分别下降2.2607、0.4692。进一步的分析表明，该服务对林业生产要素投入的影响效应具有区域差异，在东部地区能显著提高农户资金投入和劳动力投入水平，西部地区则完全相反。同时，资金投入和劳动力投入之间存在较强的互补性，总体、采用组和未采用组的要素替代弹性分别为0.5210、0.4570和0.5960。病虫害统防统治服务能显著激活农户林业生产要素配置水平，但采用单一环节的社会化服务，并不能达到节约资金或劳动力投入总量的目的；为了匹配社会化服务的要求，农户往往会选择追加资金和劳动力的投入量，以达到要素配置最优水平。因此，政府应进一步完善林业建设水平，提供符合农户现实需求的林业社会化服务，缓解现实中农户经营林业面临的困难。     

中华民族共同体视域下哀牢内属研究

探索各民族融入中华民族共同体的历史进程和路径研究已成为学界较为经典的研究命题。横断山区作为最为古老的民族走廊、文化通道，生活其间的各民族融入多元一体中华民族共同体的历程，是中国各民族共同开发祖国锦绣河山、携手创造中华优秀文化的历程，也是中华民族追求共生共融共长、和睦和谐和平发展的历程。哀牢内属千古盛事，流传至今不绝于史书，永昌盛名驰名中外，畅达南方丝绸之路。秦汉经营西南始为求道，后得一统，在“中原”与“西南”圈层互动融合影响之下，哀牢因文化认同求得内属积极融入中华民族共同体，具有典型的征候意义。从史籍脉络和神话隐喻中纵横梳理哀牢内属寻求中华民族认同的历程，解密哀牢内属的过程、策略、阶段和状态，并以此为着力点探析横断山区各民族融入中华民族共同体的历史经验，希冀为进一步铸牢中华民族共同体意识以及构建中华民族共同体、区域发展共同体和人类命运共同体提供更多的审视与思考。     

Elite mobility and continuity during a regime change

How does a regime change influence elite mobility? By collecting data on elites after the Meiji Restoration in Japan in 1868, through which Japan transitioned from a feudal regime to a modern regime, we provide new evidence that the impact of the regime change on elite mobility varies across the stages of the regime change. We analyze the impact of the regime change from two aspects: (1) the composition of elites or elite membership and (2) the internal hierarchy within them. The regime change opened an opportunity for commoners to join the elite group. After the Meiji Restoration, the share of elites whose fathers were commoners in the former regime increased, as did the influence of meritocracy on elite ranks. However, once the new regime was established, the elite hierarchy started to reflect the social stratum of the former regime and the influence of meritocracy declined.