Indirect membership function assignment based on ordinal regression

In many fuzzy sets applications, fuzzy membership functions are commonly developed based on empirical or expert knowledge. The equation of a membership function is usually determined somewhat arbitrarily. This paper explores a novel membership function design method based on ordinal regression analysis. The estimated thresholds between ordinal measurement categories are applied to calculate the intersection points between fuzzy sets. These intersection points are further applied to determine the equations of the membership functions. Information distortion due to empirical guess can thus be reduced and more latent information in the fuzzy responses can therefore be captured. A case study investigating the relationship between foster mothers’ satisfaction and the foster time and information provided has been conducted in this research. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed membership function assignment approach have been demonstrated through several case studies.     

博弈论视角下的"辛酉政变"与晚清政治格局

博弈论为我们研究历史提供了一个非常独特的、新颖的方法工具.在"辛酉政变"中,对阵博弈的一方是慈禧与奕訢领导的帝胤贵族,另一方是以肃顺为首的的宗室贵族;前者是君权的化身,后者是相权的代表.在这个过程中,西方列国介入"辛酉政变"参与博弈,并且在其中扮演了极其关键的角色,甚至起到指导性的引领作用.因此,"辛酉政变"在国内,表现为君权与相权的博弈;在对外关系上,则是妥协与固守的博弈.各方势力博弈的结果,由于慈禧、弈訢集团与西方列国的利益共存,使双方最终走上妥协与合作,从而达到晚清政治格局博弈的一种纳什均衡状态.     

博弈论的逻辑和认知基础

当代博弈论研究的重要课题是其逻辑和认知基础问题。知识模型的提出,澄清了博弈均衡与认知条件的关系。关于共同知识、共同信念的分析开拓了博弈论分析视野,推进了对冲突和合作的科学理解。从博弈均衡分析到认知逻辑分析、交互主体认识论的发展,表明博弈论的逻辑、认知以及哲学基础的深化,预示它正在成为社会科学的统一分析框架。     

我国旅游资源经营权转让中的制度安排研究

转让旅游资源经营权已成为当前我国许多景区管理和经营改革过程中引入企业化经营的一种制度创新模式,目前在旅游资源经营权转让问题上存在一些政策的禁区和理论的障碍。通过对经营权转让存在问题的分析,认为通过科学合理的制度安排是解决问题的关键。旅游景区(点)经营权转让中制度安排的重点是各利益主体的责、权、利制度安排。同时应用重复博弈中的重复剔除占优策略均衡模型,论证了在合理的制度安排下,旅游景区经营者为了长期的经济效益,必将采取保护景区生态环境的战略。     

消费者展厅行为和参考质量效应对O2O供应链动态运营策略的影响

本文研究消费者展厅行为和参考质量效应对O2O供应链动态运营策略的影响问题。分析了集中决策、分散决策和制造商分担实体店服务成本决策3种模式下的制造商产品质量策略、实体店和电商平台的服务竞争策略,以及品牌商誉变化和企业利润等问题。并进行了价格、实体店访问比例和展厅行为强度对企业绩效的影响。研究发现：展厅行为会挫伤实体店提供服务的积极性,降低品牌商誉,从而损害制造商和实体店的利润水平;而消费者的这种搭便车行为会提高电商平台利润,但由于参考质量效应的存在,其提升空间有限。综合而言,展厅行为对供应链总体绩效不利。应对展厅行为的长期战略有：1)加强上下游的纵向合作,制造商分担实体店服务成本契约,能实现供应链总体绩效的帕累托改进。2)从受展厅行为影响最大的实体店角度,保持线下产品高定价、高服务水平,提升消费者支付意愿,全面提升实体店的品牌溢价能力,获取长久生存之道。     

论可持续发展的代价调控与实现

可持续发展战略是人类在面临一系列冲突和矛盾时所作的一种选择,任何一种选择都不会是无代价的,可持续发展战略也不例外。面对可持续发展选择下的代价及其产生的根源,我们可以做积极的调控努力,一方面可以从发展伦理学中汲取有益的启示,同时在代价调控的宏观目标设定上要保持代价与创价的博弈均衡。     

Bayesian estimation of the efficient frontier

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the three determining parameters of the efficient frontier, the expected return, and the variance of the global minimum variance portfolio and the slope parameter, from a Bayesian perspective. Their posterior distribution is derived by assigning the diffuse and the conjugate priors to the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the asset returns and is presented in terms of a stochastic representation. Furthermore, Bayesian estimates together with the standard uncertainties for all three parameters are provided, and their asymptotic distributions are established. All obtained findings are applied to real data, consisting of the returns on assets included into the S&P 500. The empirical properties of the efficient frontier are then examined in detail.     

A primal dual active set with continuation algorithm for high-dimensional nonconvex SICA-penalized regression

The smooth integration of counting and absolute deviation (SICA) penalty has been demonstrated theoretically and practically to be effective in nonconvex penalization for variable selection and parameter estimation. However, solving the nonconvex optimization problem associated with SICA penalty in high-dimensional setting remains to be enriched, mainly due to the singularity at the origin and the nonconvexity of the SICA penalty function. In this paper, we develop a fast primal dual active set (PDAS) with continuation algorithm for solving the nonconvex SICA-penalized least squares in high dimensions. Upon introducing the dual variable, the PDAS algorithm iteratively identify and update the active set in the optimization using both the primal and dual information, and then solve a low-dimensional least square problem on the active set. When combined with a continuation strategy and a high-dimensional Bayesian information criterion (BIC) selector on the tuning parameters, the proposed algorithm is very efficient and accurate. Extensive simulation studies and analysis of a high-dimensional microarray gene expression data are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.     

基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习,造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈,采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法,得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后,结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析,比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明,根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值,政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析,不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程,而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

三级装备制造业供应链质量管理行为研究

作为我国工业化建设和国民经济发展的根本保证,供应链环境下装备制造企业的产品质量问题受到了广泛关注。本文重点考虑产品质量对供应链收益的影响,运用微分对策理论研究由单一制造商、单一部件供应商和单一零件供应商构成的三级装备制造业供应链质量管理行为的协调问题。通过对比Nash非合作博弈和Stackelberg主从博弈两种分散式决策模式及集中式决策模式下协同合作博弈的均衡结果,得到相关结论,并利用算例进行验证。研究表明,①分散式决策下,制造商的质量管理行为相同,但相比于Nash非合作博弈,Stackelberg主从博弈能够改善部件供应商和零件供应商的质量管理行为,提升供应链成员的收益水平;②集中式决策下,供应链成员的质量管理行为达到最优,系统整体收益实现最大。研究结论为装备制造业供应链成员间质量管理战略联盟的构建提供了理论依据。