家庭托育点管理实践及启示：政策工具的视角

家庭托育点的规范化对婴幼儿健康成长至关重要。通过文献收集和访谈获得既往管理举措和当前试点政策,运用政策工具进行分析和总结,探究管理家庭托育点的背景、对象和措施。结果表明：家庭托育点因经济优势而被纳入管理,现有征求意见稿管理对象偏向小规模邻托,但试点和市场偏向较大收托规模;消防审查依托既有消防验收,师资准入要求偏低,质量监管依靠政府。管理建议：应根据收托规模区分小型和大型家庭托育点开展试点;完善三方协同的管理架构,设定专门空间环境要求,提高师资准入要求,建立综合质量监管。     

Binary Dynamic Logit for Correlated Ordinal: estimation,application and simulation

We evaluate the estimation performance of the Binary Dynamic Logit model for correlated ordinal variables (BDLCO model), and compare it to GEE and Ordinal Logistic Regression performance in terms of bias and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results indicate that when the proportional-odds assumption does not hold, the proposed BDLCO method is superior to existing models in estimating correlated ordinal data. Moreover, this method is flexible in terms of modeling dependence and allows unequal slopes for each category, and can be used to estimate an apple bloom data set where the proportional-odds assumption is violated. We also provide a function in R to implement BDLCO.     

股票市场的极值风险测度及后验分析研究

通过对上证综指和世界股市若干重要指数的实证研究发现,无论是在成熟资本市场还是新兴资本市场当中,极值理论(EVT)及其工具都能更加准确地刻画实际市场的极端波动和风险状况.详细说明了不同收益分布假定下风险价值(VaR)的计算方法及其后验分析(Back-testing)过程,证明了与非条件和条件正态分布以及条件t分布等主流金融理论的收益分布假定相比,条件EVT分布在测度极端市场风险时所表现出的优越性,同时说明了在不同概率水平下各种收益分布假定的精确度和适用范围.     

我国农民收入增长缓慢的原因及对策分析

我国农民收入水平相对偏低且增长缓慢,依然是当前农业和农村经济发展面临的一个突出问题。造成农民收入增长缓慢的原因是多方面的,如农业发展阶段性变化,非农产业阶段性变化,过度松散的农业生产模式,农业投入不足、资金严重短缺等。要实现农民收入的增长,必须相应地采取各种有效措施,包括加快农业产业结构的调整,大力推进农业产业化经营、加大农业和农村的投入,改善农村金融服务等。     

Deciding with Thresholds: Importance Measures and Value of Information

Risk‐informed decision making is often accompanied by the specification of an acceptable level of risk. Such target level is compared against the value of a risk metric, usually computed through a probabilistic safety assessment model, to decide about the acceptability of a given design, the launch of a space mission, etc. Importance measures complement the decision process with information about the risk/safety significance of events. However, importance measures do not tell us whether the occurrence of an event can change the overarching decision. By linking value of information and importance measures for probabilistic risk assessment models, this work obtains a value‐of‐information‐based importance measure that brings together the risk metric, risk importance measures, and the risk threshold in one expression. The new importance measure does not impose additional computational burden because it can be calculated from our knowledge of the risk achievement and risk reduction worth, and complements the insights delivered by these importance measures. Several properties are discussed, including the joint decision worth of basic event groups. The application to the large loss of coolant accident sequence of the Advanced Test Reactor helps us in illustrating the risk analysis insights.     

提高高职院校教学质量的主要对策

提高教学质量是高职院校办学的关键,是发展高等职业教育实现高等教育大众化的重要内容。本文分析了高职院校教学质量存在的问题,并提出政府对高职教育进行政策引导以及高职院校自身在专业设置、课程体系、师资队伍、实践教学、教学质量的监控机制等方面加强建设的建议。     

试论图书馆读者权益保护问题

图书馆界迫切需要树立读者权益保护意识,研究和探讨读者权益保护问题.图书馆应满足读者的不断增长的文献需求、服务需求、信息需求以及读者接受文献信息教育的要求和读者参与图书馆管理的需求,坚持读者权益保护形式与内容的统一、权利和义务的统一、个体利益和群众利益的统一,切实保护读者权益,使图书馆读者权益的保护日益科学化、规范化、法制化.     

我国环境刑罚轻缓化探析

毋庸置疑,在整个国际社会对环境犯罪处以轻缓刑罚的背景下,我国亦应该对环境刑罚采用轻缓化的原则。诚然,我国的环境刑罚制度与其他国家相比还有许多亟待完善的地方,但这并不妨碍我们在借鉴其他国家先进的立法经验的基础上构建适合我国具体国情的环境刑罚制度。在环境刑罚中要突出自由刑的适用,扩大并完善财产刑的适用,明确财产刑中过于模糊的规定,逐步改善环境犯罪的刑事处罚措施过于单一的缺点和功能上的不足,同时提高对辅助刑罚措施的关注。在环境犯罪方面,在适用传统刑罚措施惩治的基础上配合适用辅助刑罚措施,使我国环境刑罚轻缓化实践不至于成为一纸空谈。     

元末顺帝时期“三农”问题研究

元末顺帝时期,政治腐败,＂三农＂问题突出,主要体现在农民生活困苦、农业生产落后、农村管理混乱、村社组织涣散等方面,腐败不堪的政府施政失败,导致了＂三农＂的相关政策执行不力,给当时的社会造成了严重影响,直接导致了元末经济的崩溃,同时激发了社会阶级矛盾和民族矛盾,加速了元朝的覆灭,还对明初的相关政策措施产生了深远的影响。     

Some maximum-indifference estimators for the slope of a univariate linear model

As known, the least-squares estimator of the slope of a univariate linear model sets to zero the covariance between the regression residuals and the values of the explanatory variable. To prevent the estimation process from being influenced by outliers, which can be theoretically modelled by a heavy-tailed distribution for the error term, one can substitute covariance with some robust measures of association, for example Kendall's tau in the popular Theil–Sen estimator. In a scarcely known Italian paper, Cifarelli [(1978), ‘La Stima del Coefficiente di Regressione Mediante l'Indice di Cograduazione di Gini’, Rivista di matematica per le scienze economiche e sociali, 1, 7–38. A translation into English is available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.4809 and will appear in Decisions in Economics and Finance] shows that a gain of efficiency can be obtained by using Gini's cograduation index instead of Kendall's tau. This paper introduces a new estimator, derived from another association measure recently proposed. Such a measure is strongly related to Gini's cograduation index, as they are both built to vanish in the general framework of indifference. The newly proposed estimator is shown to be unbiased and asymptotically normally distributed. Moreover, all considered estimators are compared via their asymptotic relative efficiency and a small simulation study. Finally, some indications about the performance of the considered estimators in the presence of contaminated normal data are provided.