建构云南文化产业的核心竞争力--关于文化产业与旅游业一体化发展的几点思考

作者认为,应结合云南实际,从各个层面推进文化产业与旅游业的一体化发展,从而建构自己的核心竞争力,围绕这一基本思路,踏踏实实制定并实施相关竞争战略.作者还从体制改革和机制创新、跨区域合作、特色资源与产品创新等方面提出了一些对策和建议.     

Weibull accelerated life tests when there are competing causes of failure

Accelerated life testing of a product under more severe than normal conditions is commonly used to reduce test time and costs. Data collected at such accelerated conditions are used to obtain estimates of the parameters of a stress translation function. This function is then used to make inference about the product's life under normal operating conditions. We consider the problem of accelerated life tests when the product of interest is a p component series system. Each of the components is assumed to have an independent Weibull time to failure distribution with different shape parameters and different scale parameters which are increasing functions stress. A general model i s used for the scale parameter includes the standard engineering models as special This model also has an appealing biological interpretation     

Nonparametric estimation of survival functions for incomplete observations when the life time distribution is proportionally related ot the censoring time distribution

Let X₁, X₂…,X_n be a random sample from [ILM0001] and let Y₁, …,Y_n be a random sample from [ILM0002]. Then instead of observing a complete sample X₁,…X_n, we can only observe the pairs Z_i. = min(X_i.,Y_i) and [ILM0003] In this paper, we consider estimation of survival function [ILM0004] when [ILM0005], where β is an unknown positive real number.

     

A relation between product-limit estimate and joint-risk estimate

The joint-risk estimate of the survival function, used for censored survival data grouped into fixed intervals, is shown to be the geometric mean of all the product-limit estimates that correspond to all the possible orderings of all the failure times and censoring times in the group. The joint-risk estimate is proposed as a more appropriate and better means of dealing with ties for data containing tied failure times and censoring times. It is also applicable to competing risk problems with tied failure times involving different causes. It could be used as a substitute for the product-limit estimate in discrete failure time analysis.     

Bayesian analysis for partially complete time and type of failure data

In this paper, we consider the Bayesian analysis of competing risks data, when the data are partially complete in both time and type of failures. It is assumed that the latent cause of failures have independent Weibull distributions with the common shape parameter, but different scale parameters. When the shape parameter is known, it is assumed that the scale parameters have Beta–Gamma priors. In this case, the Bayes estimates and the associated credible intervals can be obtained in explicit forms. When the shape parameter is also unknown, it is assumed that it has a very flexible log-concave prior density functions. When the common shape parameter is unknown, the Bayes estimates of the unknown parameters and the associated credible intervals cannot be obtained in explicit forms. We propose to use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique to compute Bayes estimates and also to compute associated credible intervals. We further consider the case when the covariates are also present. The analysis of two competing risks data sets, one with covariates and the other without covariates, have been performed for illustrative purposes. It is observed that the proposed model is very flexible, and the method is very easy to implement in practice.     

多渠道零售商线上线下协同营销研究综述与展望

开展线上线下业务成为传统零售商转型的方向,但多渠道策略会引发资源抢夺,造成线上线下渠道冲突,使协同效应被替代效应抵消,多渠道零售商如何实现协同营销成为研究的热点问题.文章从协同营销概念出发,厘清零售商线下“触网”线上和线上“进军”线下两种线上线下协同营销类型,从渠道整合、企业资源、商品和服务三个视角梳理多渠道零售商线上线下协同营销策略,系统回顾多渠道零售商线上线下渠道协同绩效、营销策略契合度、顾客信任等方面研究,展望该领域未来研究方向,以期为学术界开展协同营销理论研究和多渠道零售商实践线上线下协同营销提供参考.     

基于交叉销售的竞争供应链纵向契约研究

考虑市场上存在两个竞争性制造商和两个竞争性零售商,且每个制造商都由两个共同的零售商来分销产品,进而形成交叉销售的竞争供应链模型.研究该模型下制造商契约选择的动态演化过程.分析收益分享契约同时实现制造商与零售商利润改进的条件.结果显示:制造商的契约选择严重依赖于产品间的竞争强度,零售商间竞争强度只起到催化剂的作用.当产品间的竞争较弱,收益分享比例设置在合适范围内时,制造商由最初的批发价契约转化为收益分享契约,且此时收益分享契约为占优策略.否则,两者将因为收益分享比例无法达成一致,被迫以批发价契约进行交易.     

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates,with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

This article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.