An Integral Bhattacharyya Type Bound for the Bayes Risk

In this article, some results are derived on stochastic comparisons of the residual and past lifetimes of an (n ? k + 1)-out-of-n system with dependent components. These findings generalize some recent results obtained on systems with independent components and provide some interesting results for a system with dependent components following an Archimedean copula. An illustrative example is provided.     

Graphical Methods for Data Presentation: Full Scale Breaks,Dot Charts,and Multibased Logging

Experimentation with graphical methods for data presentation is important for improving graphical communication in science. Several methods—full scale breaks, dot charts, and multibased logging—are discussed. Full scale breaks are suggested as replacements for partial scale breaks, since partial breaks can fail to provide a forceful visual indication of a change in the scale. Dot charts show data that have labels and are replacements for bar charts; the new charts can be used in a wider variety of circumstances and allow more effective visual decoding of the quantitative information. Logarithms are powerful tools for data presentation; base 2 or base e is often more effective than the commonly used base 10.     

Approximate Bayes estimation of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring

The main goal of this paper is to develop the approximate Bayes estimation of the five-dimensional vector of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions (MTIWD) under Type-2 censoring. Usually, the posterior distribution is complicated under the scheme of Type-2 censoring and the integrals that are involved cannot be obtained in a simple explicit form. In this study, we use Lindley's [Approximate Bayesian method, Trabajos Estadist. 31 (1980), pp. 223–237] approximate form of Bayes estimation in the case of an MTIWD under Type-2 censoring. Later, we calculate the estimated risks (ERs) of the Bayes estimates and compare them with the corresponding ERs of the maximum-likelihood estimates through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we analyse a real data set using the findings.     

农户分化、财产价值认知与宅基地退出行为

基于长三角地区实地调查,分析了农户分化对宅基地退出意愿及受偿方式选择的影响路径,进一步探讨了财产价值认知的中介效应。结果发现:(1)农户分化对宅基地退出意愿既有直接影响也有间接影响,财产价值认知发挥中介作用,中介效应占比11.85％;(2)农户分化会显著负向影响农户对城镇房屋置换补偿方式的选择,显著正向影响农户的一次性货币补偿选择,中介效应占比分别为17.05％和12.70％;(3)相比较于远郊区,近郊区农户分化对宅基地财产价值认知和退出意愿都更加强烈,两个区域农户在受偿方式选择上存在一定差异。基于此,建议政府通过拓宽宅基地退出后农户的就业渠道、加强宅基地制度改革的政策宣传以及制定多元化的宅基地退出补偿机制等措施推进宅基地制度改革。     

基于多维度感知风险的中国公众无偿献血意愿及影响因素分析

基于多维度感知风险,调查中国公众的献血意愿现状,探讨其影响因素,为无偿献血者招募与保留工作提供科学依据。本文从公众对献血行为、心理、情境、制度、偏见、服务、宣传七个维度的感知风险入手,在问卷调查与因素分析的基础上,基于实证分析,解释各种因素之间的相互关系,揭示不同特征中国公众献血意愿的差异,进而有针对性地制定无偿献血招募及保留措施,促进我国无偿献血事业可持续发展。     

地缘政治风险的测度与经济效应分析

地缘政治风险日渐高企,冲击和影响着全球贸易与投资,构成左右全球经济复苏、政治格局演变和地缘关系重构的推力,也成为国内外国际政治、国际关系、国际经济等领域关注研究的前沿问题。通过梳理分析近些年地缘政治风险的经济效应,即地缘政治风险的技术创新效应、开放经济效应、经济增长效应等,试图为研究和制定相关政策提供研究脉络、研究内容、主要观点和前景展望等方面的一些有益启发。     

The asymptotic distribution of the partial attributable risk in cross-sectional studies

The partial attributable risk (PAR) has been introduced as a tool for partitioning the responsibility for causing an adverse event between various risk factors. It has arisen from epidemiology, but it is also a valid general risk allocation concept, which can, for example, be applied to data from customer satisfaction surveys. So far, a variance formula for the PAR has been missing so that the confidence intervals were not directly available. This paper provides the asymptotic normal distribution for the PAR determined from a cross-sectional study.     

Optimum Critical Value for Pre-Test Estimator

In this paper, methods are proposed in finding the robust design in both Taguchi and Standard setups when a signal factor is present. The robust design is a set of level combinations of control factors so that the effect of controllable noise factors on response is minimum. Both univariate and multivariate methods are used in finding the influential noise factors for the determination of robust designs.     

Quasi-optimal Bayesian procedures of many hypotheses testing

Quasi-optimal procedures of testing many hypotheses are described in this paper. They significantly simplify the Bayesian algorithms of hypothesis testing and computation of the risk function. The relations allowing for obtaining the estimations for the values of average risks in optimum tasks are given. The obtained general solutions are reduced to concrete formulae for a multivariate normal distribution of probabilities. The methods of approximate computation of the risk functions in Bayesian tasks of testing many hypotheses are offered. The properties and interrelations of the developed methods and algorithms are investigated. On the basis of a simulation, the validity of the obtained results and conclusions drawn is presented.     

Patterns of individual change and program satisfaction in a positive parenting program for parents at psychosocial risk

Despite the evidence of effectiveness of positive parenting programs, little is known about the typology of changes that parents at psychosocial risk undergo after an intervention. We compared individual patterns of change in three parenting outcomes in 256 at risk parents with young children attending the group‐based Growing Up Happily in the Family program delivered in municipal social services. We identified four clusters of individual change: Cluster 1 (30.6%) had negative changes in parental child‐rearing attitudes and parenting stress, Cluster 2 (27.7%) had positive changes in child‐rearing attitudes and negative results in parental perceived competence, and Cluster 3 (24.1%) and Cluster 4 (17.6%) showed overall better results. Residential area, type of social support, and quality of implementation characterized cluster membership. Participants in clusters with better results were more satisfied with the program than those with worse results. Practical recommendations are provided for the successful implementation of group parenting programs in family preservation services.