Domestic violence and child protection: exploring the role of perpetrator risk assessments

This article explores the issue of severity in relation to domestic violence and provides a number of reasons for the necessary engagement by workers with such a contentious issue. The specific role that the assessment of the risks posed by the perpetrator which has now developed in some police forces in the United Kingdom is examined, and its relevance to child welfare intervention discussed. A range of factors are identified that heighten the risks of increased violence. These include prior sexual assault; stalking and controlling behaviour; substance misuse and mental‐health problems; separation and child contact disputes; pregnancy; escalation including the use of weapons and psychological abuse; attempts and threats to kill; child abuse; isolation and barriers to help‐seeking. The ways in which perpetrator risk assessment can be used to inform the filtering of referrals to the statutory child care agency, enhance multi‐agency working, provide a structure for the assessment of the perpetrator, enhance partnership‐working with survivors (usually women) and inform the protection strategies for workers are explored.     

Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover, increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.

基于FS模型的设计施工总承包联合体领导-成员风险分配策略分析

合理的风险分配是实施设计施工总承包模式的重要保障。在分析联合体成员公平偏好的基础上,通过对FS模型的改进,构建了联合体牵头方与联合体成员之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,从联合体成员嫉妒负效用以及同情正效用两方面,对联合体牵头方的最优风险分配以及联合体成员的最优风险投入进行了均衡分析。最后,采用调研获取的参数分析了不同风险承担比例下联合体成员的公平偏好系数对联合体成员风险投入、联合体成员效用、联合体牵头方效用以及联合体整体绩效的影响。特别地,联合体成员应对不同风险分配方案时会产生不同心理偏好,低分配比例情景下嫉妒偏好的增强会提高自身效用但降低联合体牵头方的效用;高分配比例情景下嫉妒偏好的增强不仅会降低联合体成员效用还会降低联合体牵头方以及整体效用,相反,同情偏好对联合体绩效具有正向调节作用。