中国流动儿童政策分析

本文从儿童权利平等的角度出发,结合2003年“中国九城市流动儿童生活状况调查”数据,从国家和地方两个层面,主观和客观两个方面深入分析流动儿童政策的现状,剖析国家和地方政府之间的义务和责任关系,分析影响流动儿童政策制定、执行等环节的因素,针对流动儿童主要问题,提出政策建议。     

我国老年人临终前需要完全照料的时间分析

根据中国老年人健康长寿影响因素2005年第4周期调查数据,用多水平随机效应序列模型,对中国65岁及以上老年人临终前需要他人完全照料的天数进行较为系统的分析。结果显示照料时间与杜区社会经济发展因素无很大关联性,但与性别、受教育程度、有病及时治疗、子女可近度、经常参与宗教佛事活动和基期健康等个体因素存在一定依存关系。     

Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

“管他”的语法化

＂管他＂是一个至今未被收入虚词词典的连词性成分。在现代汉语中,＂管他＂虽然没有词汇化为一个词,但它是一个经过句法上的并入操作而实现的韵律词,比＂管＂更有资格充当连词性成分。＂管他＂语法化为连词性成分首先是语义条件,即＂管＂由行为动词演变为心理动词、代词＂他＂的意义虚化,其次是语音条件,即现代汉语双音节的自然音步模式。此外,＂管他＂语法化为连词的直接语境是反问句,相关语境是否定句。     

瑞典修改《医疗生物银行法》对我国的启示

瑞典的《医疗生物银行法》在实施过程中出现适用范围有限、伦理原则缺失、有关职责界定不清等问题,科学界和医疗界提议出台新的生物银行法以替代旧法,促进医疗领域健康发展。瑞典新的生物银行法报告在尊重个体完整和隐私的前提下,将监管所有人类组织样本的收集、存储和使用,并将完善样本捐献者的知情同意,强化样本捐献者的自决权,增加可追溯性规定和样本库个人资料处理原则,申明生物样本跨界合作的安全问题,对正在修订《涉及人的生物医学研究伦理审查办法》的我国具有借鉴意义。     

理解的三个过程

本文论述了阅读理解的三个过程 :语义辨析、语法分析和逻辑分析 ,并指出这三个过程相互影响 ,相互作用 ,缺一不可     

20世纪柳永词传播的定量分析

词选是词的主要传播媒介,20世纪词选的数量和种类与前代相比达到最大值,其对柳永词的著录篇数与著录名次亦创历史新高。这种传播盛况充分表明此期柳永词在读者心目中的重要地位和深远影响。俚俗词进入柳永“名词”排行榜与“名词”的分散、扩展趋势则表明此期词学观念、词学趣尚的深刻变化与多元化发展态势。     

Determinants of Social Expenditure in Sri Lanka

The study examines the determinants of social expenditure in Sri Lanka for the period 1970–2010. The data are from a new data set assembled by the authors. The social spending data are collected from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on education, health, and also on welfare spending. The study explains the determinants of social spending considering the demand‐side and the supply‐side driving forces and finds that inequality issues have been a major concern of social policy in Sri Lanka. Similarly, this study implies the influence of political behavior to satisfy voters as explained by the fiscal illusion theory. The globalization is not significant for social expenditure as commonly assumed in developed countries. Even the consequences of the self‐interested behavior of bureaucrats are not evident in the Sri Lankan welfare sector.     

The Middle‐class in the German Welfare State: Beneficial Involvement at Stake?

The working‐class is typically regarded as the driving force of welfare state development. Yet, some argue that the middle‐classes' beneficial involvement in the welfare state is crucial for its financial sustainability and popular legitimacy. Against this backdrop, we investigate how recent welfare state reforms in Germany which affect the status of the middle‐class are viewed and discussed by this group. Germany is a particularly interesting case because its welfare state is seen to be centred on the desires of the middle‐class, especially through its focus on status maintenance and horizontal redistribution over the life‐course. However, the move from status maintenance to minimum income support in unemployment provision and the strengthening of private old age provision challenge this assumption. Thus, we ask how the German middle‐class views the emerging abandonment of the principle of status maintenance and the shift from collective to individual responsibility. Based on qualitative material from focus groups, we find that individual responsibility is generally supported, but that the state is still assigned responsibility for providing basic levels of social security. Furthermore, for those groups seen as less capable of acting individually responsible (e.g. the poor or long‐term unemployed) the ‘inducement’ of – or assistance for – individually responsible behaviour by the state is demanded. Overall, while the principle of ‘individual responsibility’ seems to find some resonance among the middle‐class members interviewed, they still try to balance individual and collective responsibility.