An EM type estimation procedure for the destructive exponentially weighted Poisson regression cure model under generalized gamma lifetime

In this paper, we assume the number of competing causes to follow an exponentially weighted Poisson distribution. By assuming the initial number of competing causes can undergo destruction and that the population of interest has a cure fraction, we develop the EM algorithm for the determination of the MLEs of the model parameters of such a general cure model. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model and also provides an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of an event of interest. Instead of assuming a particular parametric distribution for the lifetime, we assume the lifetime to belong to the wider class of generalized gamma distribution. This allows us to carry out a model discrimination to select a parsimonious lifetime distribution that provides the best fit to the data. Within the EM framework, a two-way profile likelihood approach is proposed to estimate the shape parameters. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination is carried out by means of the likelihood ratio test and information-based methods. Finally, a data on melanoma is analyzed for illustrative purpose.     

VF与Excel结合制作复杂报表

论述了在VF中利用COM技术编程 ,使我们的应用程序可以和EXCEL有机的组合起来 ,进而为用户提供强大的数据处理与报表打印系统     

A new goodness-of-fit test for certain bivariate distributions applicable to traffic accidents

T. Cacoullos and H. Papageorgiou [On some bivariate probability models applicable to traffic accidents and fatalities, Int. Stat. Rev. 48 (1980) 345–356] studied a special class of bivariate discrete distributions appropriate for modeling traffic accidents, and fatalities resulting therefrom. The corresponding random variable may be written as $Z={(N,Y)}^{\prime }$, with $Y={\sum }_{j=1}^N{X}_j$, where ${\left\{X_j\right\}}_{j=1}^N$, are independent copies of a (discrete) random variable $X$, and $N$ is independent of ${\left\{X_j\right\}}_{j=1}^N$, and follows a Poisson law. If $X$ follows a Poisson law (resp. Binomial law), the resulting distribution is termed Poisson–Poisson (resp. Poisson–Binomial). L2-type goodness-of-fit statistics are constructed for the ‘general distribution’ of this kind, where $X$ may be an arbitrary discrete nonnegative random variable. The test statistics utilize a simple characterization involving the corresponding probability generating function, and are shown to be consistent. The proposed procedures are shown to perform satisfactorily in simulated data, while their application to accident data leads to positive conclusions regarding the modeling ability of this class of bivariate distributions.     

论历史知识生成及性质判断上的二元对立

长期以来,关于史学本质问题的各种认识存在着一种知识实在论的误导,即认为历史知识的性质是某种既定事实的客观性,只是有待人们去探索和揭示,并最终能够认识它。然而,历史知识在生成和被接受过程中,却表现为一种不断＂异化＂的特征：在由个人生成中,体现的是不同知识属性;而在社会生成上,则表现了对知识接受者的依赖性。事实上,从这一全部过程来看,关于历史知识性质的判定更取决于后者对它的重新规定。     

学术的评价机制和生成规律

创新性学术的生成需要以天赋、勤奋、灵感三位一体为基础,这就决定了优质学术研究者的稀缺性、学术作品自身成长的长期性、学术作品评价的公正性,学术生成规律是建立科学学术评价机制的基础.稀缺性要求学术评价机制的筛选性质,将具有学术天分和爱好的人挑选进学术队伍,没有学术天分和兴趣的人则排除出去;长期性要求不能急功近利年年考评,以三五年或更长为一个周期较为合理,优秀的学术作品需要一个如琢如磨的较长过程;公正性要求期刊的运行要规范,作者和论文要一致,论文质量和期刊档次要一致,避免平庸之作进入权威期刊而将学术庸才装扮为学术天才.     

指数母函数在数学期望计算中的应用

讨论指数母函数的性质，利用指数母函数得到几个结论的新证明；给出利用指数母函数计算随机变量数学期望的方法．利用这种方法，比直接利用数学期望和方差的定义计算更加简易．     

宪法实施的中国图景

世界各国的宪法实施可分为立法审查、司法审查、专门机关审查等模式;中国宪法的实施图景,就深深蕴藏于人民代表大会制度之中,但我国宪法和立法法所确立的违宪审查模式并没有相应践行,"适用宪法规范解决宪法争议"的实践在现实生活中也没有出现,学者们在认同我国现存政治制度正当性以及存在宪法实施的前提下寻求新的研究思路。我国完整的宪法实施制度包括宪法监督制度、宪法解释制度、备案审查制度、宪法日制度、宪法宣誓制度五部分内容。     

解读近年来中国大陆家庭伦理剧中的“第三者”想像

从电视剧类型的特征看，近年来中国大陆家庭伦理剧对“第三者”想像日呈类型化特点。这一特点不仅影响了家庭伦理剧对第三者想像的艺术创新，同时也给社会道德带来了一定的负面影响。本文从情节设置、人物角色安排两个方面分析描述了近年来家庭伦理剧对第三者想像的类型化特点，并对形成这种特点的原因作了一些揭示，对今后家庭伦理剧如何想像“第三者”做出一些思考。     

利用情绪生成心理机制培养学生的自我效能感

本文从情绪生成心理机制的角度论述了学生自我效能感的培养 ,着重强调了如何利用需要、客体与预期的关系、观察性学习、表情训练、认知和评价、兴趣等因素来培养学生的自我效能感 ,并指出自我效能感培养的最终目标是使学生能将之内化为自身性格并能有意识地在该方面进行自我教育。     

n元集r-可重复圆排列数

首先给出n元集每个元至少出现 1次的r -可重复圆排列数er(n)的计数模型 ,进而定义带符号的可重复圆排列数s(r ,n) =(- 1) r-ner(n) ,讨论了er(n)与s(r ,n)的性质 ,从而造出s(r ,n)表 .利用s(r,n)表可以方便地求出多项式数列对应的常生成函数