新时代美好生活的基本内涵、生成逻辑及实践路径

新时代美好生活是人们基于自由自觉的生存实践所产生的一种总体上幸福的主观体验和积极评价。它是人民共享发展成果的生活、人民享有自由平等的生活、人民享有优秀文化的生活、人民享有公平正义的生活、人与自然和谐共生的生活。它的生成是文化逻辑、理论逻辑、实践逻辑的有机统一。中国特色社会主义进入新时代,我们要牢牢把握社会主要矛盾的转化,实现发展理念的时代升华;发挥党的领导核心作用,弘扬“以人民为中心”的价值逻辑;坚定文化自觉和文化自信,实现社会主义文化大发展大繁荣;增强政府公共服务的职能,完善社会治理模式和公正机制;加快生态文明体制改革,构筑人与自然和谐共生的生命共同体,为实现人民美好生活和中华民族伟大复兴不懈奋斗。     

“人与自然生命共同体”理念的生成逻辑探究——基于唯物史观视角

人的实践联系着人与自然的关系，决定着对它们关系的认识程度。从唯物史观看，自然是被体验到、被认识到、被意识到和被实践的自然。人与自然的关系及其认识，有生成演变逻辑。全球生态问题和发展问题是构建人与自然生命共同体的现实基础和必然要求。"人与自然是生命共同体"强调人与自然辩证统一的关系； "人与自然生命共同体" ，强调人与自然内在同一性，是对马克思自然观的守正创新，是对生态文明建设的准确概括。     

A Generalization of the Childs-Moran Result for Orthoscheme Probabilities

van der Vaart (1953, 1955) introduced the orthoscheme probability R_n (c ₁,..., c_n−1 ), meaning the orthant probability of an n -dimensional normal random vector with zero mean and tridiagonal correlation matrix with elements c ₁,..., c_n−1 on the upper diagonal. Childs (1967) conjectured and Moran (1983) proved that the generating function of { R_n (½,...,½)} equals tan z + sin z . This paper derives the generating function of { R_n (τ,½,...,½)}.     

On some probability distributions associated with random walks

The probability distribution of the total number of games to ruin in a gambler's ruin random walk with initial position n, the probability distribution of the total size of an epidemic starting with n cases and the probability distribution of the number of customers served during a busy period M/M/1 when the service starts with n waiting customers are identical. All these can be easily obtained by using Lagrangian expansions instead of long combinatorial methods. The binomial, trinomial, quadrinomial and polynomial random walks of a particle have been considered with an absorbing barrier at 0 when the particle starts its walks from a point n, and the pgfs. and the probability distributions of the total number of jumps (trials) before absorption at 0 have been obtained. The values for the mean and variance of such walks have also been given.     

A family of bivariate binomial distributions generated by extreme bernoulli distributions

In this paper, bivariate binomial distributions generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distributions are obtained and studied. Representation of the bivariate binomial distribution generated by a convex combination of extreme bivariate Bernoulli distributions as a mixture of distributions in the class of bivariate binomial distribution generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distribution is obtained. A subfamily of bivariate binomial distributions exhibiting the property of positive and negative dependence is constructed. Some results on positive dependence notions as it relates to the bivariate binomial distribution generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distribution and a linear combination of such distributions are obtained.     

On the moment generating functions for integer valued random variables

Abstract

In this note, we give explicit expressions of moment generating functions for integer valued random variables in both univariate and multivariate cases, which extend the results obtained by Nadarajah and Mitov [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 32, 2003, 47–60] and more recently by Chakraborti, Jardim and Epprecht [The American Statistician, 2017], Kwong and Nadarajah [Communications in Statistics–Theory and Methods, 2017]. Some examples are also discussed.     

商业银行利率风险管理技术综述

一、引言(一)现实背景从2000年9月21日起,我国利率市场化改革进入实质性阶段,预计三年内完成。利率市场化是一场系统性的金融革命,必将对经济金融领域的方方面面产生重要影响。商业银行应积极采取措施,应对利率市场化将带来的一系列风险。近几年,我国发行了大量的国债和金融债,     

经济承压背景下中国能源经济预测与展望

2019年中央经济工作会议强调,中国正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期,经济下行压力不断加大。以此为背景阐述能源经济发展现状,分析重点行业发展前景,通过不同情景下的预测分析,探讨经济承压背景下中国能源经济发展的路径与趋势。根据预测结果,经济承压对各行业的能源消费量存在普遍影响,尤其是煤炭、黑色金属冶炼和汽车行业的能源消费量在未来一段时间将呈下降趋势;在基准情形下,预计到2030年,中国GDP将达到171.97万亿元（2018年不变价水平）,能源消费总量约57.09亿吨标准煤,煤炭消费占比将不断下降,清洁能源占比预计达到41.7%。根据预测结果,有针对性地在能源消费结构、能源效率和能源合作方面提出政策建议。     

Estimating the parameters of Poisson-exponential models

This paper proposes two methods of estimation for the parameters in a Poisson-exponential model. The proposed methods combine the method of moments with a regression method based on the empirical moment generating function. One of the methods is an adaptation of the mixed-moments procedure of Koutrouvelis & Canavos (1999). The asymptotic distribution of the estimator obtained with this method is derived. Finite-sample comparisons are made with the maximum likelihood estimator and the method of moments. The paper concludes with an exploratory-type analysis of real data based on the empirical moment generating function.     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.