The Role of Risk Perception in Flu Vaccine Behavior among African‐American and White Adults in the United States

Seasonal flu vaccination rates are low for U.S. adults, with significant disparities between African and white Americans. Risk perception is a significant predictor of vaccine behavior but the research on this construct has been flawed. This study addressed critical research questions to understand the differences between African and white Americans in the role of risk perception in flu vaccine behavior: (1) What is the dimensionality of risk perception and does it differ between the two races?  (2) Were risk perceptions of white and African‐American populations different and how were sociodemographic characteristics related to risk for each group? (3) What is the relation between risk perception and flu vaccine behaviors for African Americans and whites? The sample, drawn from GfK's Knowledge Panel, consisted of 838 whites and 819 African Americans. The survey instrument was developed from qualitative research. Measures of risk perception included cognitive and emotional measures of disease risk and risk of side effects from the vaccine. The online survey was conducted in March 2015. Results showed the importance of risk perception in the vaccine decision‐making process for both racial groups. As expected, those who got the vaccine reported higher disease risk than those who did not. Separate cognitive and emotional factors did not materialize in this study but strong evidence was found to support the importance of considering disease risk as well as risk of the vaccine. There were significant racial differences in the way risk perception predicted behavior.     

季节性需求下受资源限制及缺货之存货模型

目前,没有任何研究同时对季节性需求、允许缺货及受资源限制之存货管理问题加以探讨.所以,此研究使用整数规划之方法来求解此一存货管理问题,使用此方法所建立的模型不仅容易应用于现实生活之中.除此之外,决策者也可轻易地将限制式加入模型之内以符合其实际情况.最后,使用范例以说明如何实际应用此模型.     

Critical Review and Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Influenza Transmission

Influenza remains a significant threat to public health, yet there is significant uncertainty about the routes of influenza transmission from an infectious source through the environment to a receptor, and their relative risks. Herein, data pertaining to factors that influence the environmental mediation of influenza transmission are critically reviewed, including: frequency, magnitude and size distribution and virus expiration, inactivation rates, environmental and self‐contact rates, and viral transfer efficiencies during contacts. Where appropriate, two‐stage Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is used to characterize variability and uncertainty in the reported data. Significant uncertainties are present in most factors, due to: limitations in instrumentation or study realism; lack of documentation of data variability; or lack of study. These analyses, and future experimental work, will improve parameterization of influenza transmission and risk models, facilitating more robust characterization of the magnitude and uncertainty in infection risk.     

Time Series Properties of the German Production Index

Summary: The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly considered in the seasonal adjustment procedures used by statistical agencies. In this paper, we propose a more flexible specification for the seasonal and working day effects and introduce an indicator for the summer vacations effect. We allow for time-varying parameters and show that the resulting Unobserved Components Model delivers more reliable results for the trend and cycle components of the production index. * I am grateful to a referee and the participants of the ifo Lunchtime Seminar, the Pfingstkonferenz of the Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft and the annual conference of the Verein für Socialpoltik for helpful comments.     

Influenza vaccine efficacy trials: a simulation approach to understand failures from the past

The success of a seasonal influenza vaccine efficacy trial depends not only upon the design but also upon the annual epidemic characteristics. In this context, simulation methods are an essential tool in evaluating the performances of study designs under various circumstances. However, traditional methods for simulating time‐to‐event data are not suitable for the simulation of influenza vaccine efficacy trials because of the seasonality and heterogeneity of influenza epidemics. Instead, we propose a mathematical model parameterized with historical surveillance data, heterogeneous frailty among the subjects, survey‐based heterogeneous number of daily contact, and a mixed vaccine protection mechanism. We illustrate our methodology by generating multiple‐trial data similar to a large phase III trial that failed to show additional relative vaccine efficacy of an experimental adjuvanted vaccine compared with the reference vaccine. We show that small departures from the designing assumptions, such as a smaller range of strain protection for the experimental vaccine or the chosen endpoint, could lead to smaller probabilities of success in showing significant relative vaccine efficacy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

福建省社会消费品零售总额的预测

以2004年1月至2010年12月福建省社会消费品零售总额月度数据为样本,建立了时间序列季节模型和单整自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,并分别应用它们对2011年各月的指标值进行了预测。在此基础上进行组合预测,得出了2011年1-12月福建省社会消费品零售总额的预测值。预测结果对更好地引导消费具有重要作用,模型建立的过程和方法能为相关研究提供借鉴。     

无斑肥螈生殖腺季节性变化的初步研究

对分布在湖南、广东交界处的南岭地区的无斑肥螈（Pachytrion labiatus)雌、雄性生殖腺在不同月份的大小、重量和不同发育程度卵的数量变化进行了调查研究。结果表明：5-8月份为生殖腺的快速生长期,9-10月为产卵期。     

基于时间序列模型的海洋溶解氧分析与预测

季节效应是指某序列由于受自然气候等因素的影响,随季节的变化而呈现出周期性的变化规律。季节效应一般以月或季为单位。文中研究的海洋溶解氧含量因为受每日气温周期性变化的影响,以2 h为单位也呈周期性的变化规律,类似于季节效应。采用2 h为采样间隔,尝试模拟乘积季节模型来对溶解氧含量进行分析。利用条件期望预测的差分方程形式对序列进行短期预测,并在实践中比对预测数据和实际数据,证明取得了不错的预测精度。     

论近代粤丝出口的市场规律和特征

由于亚热带季风气候的影响 ,以蚕丝生产为基础的粤丝出口在量与质等方面都呈现出明显的季节变化 :一般 4、5月份第一造新丝上市 ,但质、量欠佳 ,对出口贸易影响不大 ;6月份第四造生丝质、量最优 ,形成出口交易高潮 ;前后多造蚕丝相继上市 ,使交易旺期持续到 10月份。同时在近代社会背景下 ,粤丝价格深受国际市场的支配和影响 ,并被欧美列强恣意操纵 ;其变化在宏观上形成由涨到落的趋势 ,微观上则呈现出波动频繁等特点     

从禽流感防控再看危机管理

文章介绍了禽流感的影响、我国对禽流感的防控现状以及危机和危机管理的基本内涵,并分析了我国在禽流感防控工作中进行的危机管理,最后详细地阐述了危机管理机制的建立。