Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food

We examine consumer certainty of future preferences and overconfidence in predicting future preferences. We explore how preference certainty and overconfidence impact the option value to revise today’s decisions in the future. We design a laboratory experiment that creates a controlled choice environment, in which a subject’s choice set (over food snacks) is known and constant over time, and the time frame is short – subjects make choices for themselves today, and for one to two weeks ahead. Our results suggest that even for such a seemingly straightforward choice task, only 45% of subjects can predict future choices accurately, while stated certainty of future preferences (one and two weeks ahead) is around 80%. We define overconfidence in predicting future preferences as: the difference between actual accuracy at predicting future choices and stated certainty of future preferences. Our results suggest strong evidence of overconfidence. We find that overconfidence increases with the level of stated certainty of future preferences. Finally, we observe that the option value people attach to future choice flexibility decreases with overconfidence. Overconfidence in future preferences affects economic welfare because it says people have too much incentive to lock themselves into future suboptimal decisions.     

Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation

We provide theoretical foundations for several common (nested) representations of intrinsic linear habit formation. Our axiomatization introduces an intertemporal theory of weaning a decision‐maker from her habits using the device of compensation. We clarify differences across specifications of the model, provide measures of habit‐forming tendencies, and suggest methods for axiomatizing time‐nonseparable preferences.     

Theory of mind,perceived intentions and reciprocal behaviour: Evidence from individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Evidence suggests that departures from pure self-interest are due, at least partly, to individuals conditioning their behaviour on the perceived intentions of others. We present a new experiment that refines the study of intention-based other-regarding motives. Using a series of mini-ultimatum games that have been extensively studied in the literature, we compare the behaviour of normally-developing (ND) children to that of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), who typically lack the ability to attribute intentions to the observed actions of others. We find that ND children’s rejection behaviour responds systematically to changes in the set of available options, in line with previous findings. ASD children’s rejections are virtually unaffected by the intentions that could be inferred from the games’ strategy space. These differences are mainly driven by ASD children with low mentalising abilities.     

Separable Preferences,Strategyproofness, and Decomposability

We consider strategyproof social choice functions defined over product domains. If preferences are strict orderings and separable, then strategyproof social choice functions must be decomposable provided that the domain of preferences is rich. We provide several characterization results in the case where preferences are separable only with respect to the elements of some partition of the set of components and these partitions vary across individuals. We characterize the libertarian social choice function and show that no superset of the tops separable domain admits strategyproof nondictatorial social choice functions.     

从“选择制”到“普惠制”——城市户籍改革政策取向与路径探析

城市类型、户口"含金量"与户籍改革进展存在一定的逻辑关系,大部分城市仍然存在依"身份"甄别的福利和权益歧视.城市户籍改革必然要进行利益关系的调整,促进流动人口市民化是城市户籍改革的重要环节.户籍改革的最终目标是从"完全的控制体制"回归"登记体制",过渡期内应由"选择型制度"走向"普惠型制度".     

Immigrant mothers’ preferences for children’s sexes: A register-based study of fertility behaviour in Norway

Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants’ preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitudinal register data from Norway, a country with a recent immigration history, we estimate hazards regression models of third birth risks by the sex composition of the first two children. A central question in the extant literature is whether the sex preferences of immigrant mothers match those observed in their country of origin, or if cultural adaption to local conditions is more important. Our analyses indicate that the sex preferences of immigrants generally match those previously documented for their native population, especially in the case of son preferences. The pattern of sex preferences is unmodified by the mother’s exposure to the host society. In sum, our evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity.     

我国少数民族互联网使用差异分析——基于第三期中国妇女社会地位调查数据

本文通过第三期中国妇女社会地位调查数据,分析我国少数民族在互联网接入和使用层面的差异。研究发现,少数民族在互联网的使用率上低于全国平均水平,每天上网时长与汉族相比更为有限;除了利用网络炒股/投资和网络购物等经济行为的参与率较低,呈现出明显的“数字鸿沟”。进一步分析发现,城乡和区域差异是造成这一现象的首要因素。此外,性别、年龄、受教育程度和职业类型对少数民族的互联网接入状况和使用偏好都有一定影响。因此,加快中西部经济建设、互联网基础设施建设,大力开展互联网的普及工作是弥合“数字鸿沟”的有效途径。     

Preferences,constraints or schemas of devotion? Exploring Norwegian mothers' withdrawals from high‐commitment careers1

Despite decades of focus on gender equality and work–family balance, parenthood still affects mothers' and fathers' careers differently. Drawing on in‐depth interviews with Norwegian mothers who are relinquishing high‐commitment careers of law and consultancy, this paper questions the adequacy of established explanations emphasizing constraints vs. individual preferences. Our sample of female professionals living in a well‐developed welfare state is particularly apt to explore the processes and mechanisms upholding the statistically gendered pattern of women reducing their work commitment after childbirth. These doubly privileged mothers might be considered to have the best odds for combining career and work commitment with motherhood. Thus, we argue that the approach emphasizing practical constraints does not sufficiently account for the withdrawal from high‐commitment careers among these female professionals. Nevertheless, we are not content with the claim of Preference Theory that this shift in commitment is merely a matter of ‘not‐so‐dedicated’ women discovering their ‘genuine’ preferences. Rather, in order to understand why and how this shift occurs, we explore the culturally constructed rationalities and schemas of both work and family devotions. We specifically examine the circumstances, mechanisms and steps in a seemingly individual process of making the shift in commitment from a promising career to a family‐friendly job. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates how generous parental leave arrangements designed to enhance gender equality and work–family balance by simply reducing practical constraints may have limited – or even counterproductive – impact within high‐commitment occupations where the ‘irreplaceability’ of workers is taken for granted. Our findings indicate that unless the culturally (re)produced discourses, demands and expectations of both work and family are exposed and challenged, even intentionally gender neutral work–family policies will continue to facilitate mothers' career withdrawals, expressed as modified individual preferences.     

考虑非对称风险偏好的第一价格密封拍卖

在独立私人价值(IPV)框架下,文章构建了投标者风险偏好非对称的第一价格密封拍卖模型.基于分布函数相同前提,对强、弱两种风险规避度情形进行分析,研究发现:风险偏好非对称的第一价格密封拍卖存在非对称均衡投标策略且风险规避度强者投标更为激进;若风险偏好对称,则存在对称均衡投标策略,且强风险规避水平上的投标更为激进;对风险规避强弱的对称与非对称情形投标策略进行排序;拍卖的非效率性可能出现在风险偏好非对称的密封拍卖中,而风险偏好对称的拍卖总是有效率的.