基于CVaR风险度量的V2G备用合约优化与协调决策

针对单一风险中性电网公司与单一风险规避电动汽车用户所组成的渠道结构,基于考虑V2G备用的备用交易及实践中普通存在的"保底收购,随行就市"合约价格机制,在CVaR风险度量准则下,构建了具有风险规避特性的电动汽车用户电量预留决策模型,先后考察并比较了分散和集成决策下电网公司与电动汽车用户的最优决策行为。研究发现：电动汽车用户的风险规避特性降低了渠道绩效水平,传统的"保底收购,随行就市"价格机制并不能很好地协调此类V2G备用渠道。在此基础上,利用"回购补贴+市场保护价+保证金"联合契约使得合作系统达到完美协调,且渠道双方的利润均得到Pareto改进。算例分析表明了上述提出模型与方法的基本特征。     

How does labour share respond to risk? Theory and evidence from the Chinese industrial sector

This study discusses the role of firm risk in the declining labour share in China. Based on the model developed by Holmström and Milgrom (1987), the authors demonstrate that lower firm risk can motivate workers to work harder, leading to higher output per worker and average wage. However, increased output will lower the labour share. Using data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database for the period 1998–2007 and the World Bank's Investment Climate Survey 2005, empirical evidence supports this hypothesis and performs robustly across various model specifications and proxies for firm risk, indicating a positive correlation between labour share and firm risk.     

数字付费电视的媒介环境及其定价策略

从微观经济学的生产和价格理论入手,结合中国数字付费电视的发展现状,从内容生产、市场竞争格局、用户需求细分、传输渠道等方面进行分析,认为付费电视的定价应当在借鉴国外同行的运作经验同时,实行“免费电视导视”这一体验性收视策略先行,多样化的价格歧视策略跟进的办法,实现运营方及广大用户利益的双赢和互动。     

Happiness of Hong Kong youth from 2000 to 2014: empirical evidence on the differential impact of socioeconomic conditions on youth versus other age groups

This paper aims to explain why Hong Kong youth have become unhappier than older people in recent years. We test in this connection six hypotheses, using random effects ordinal logistic regressions with a combined macro-micro dataset from official statistics and a longitudinal opinion survey project from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the decline in the happiness level in recent years is more significant for Hong Kong youth than for older people. We also find evidence of age heterogeneity in the impacts of both macroeconomic conditions and the housing price on happiness. GDP per capita has a weaker positive effect on youth’s happiness than it does on older people. The positive correlation between housing price and happiness is valid for older people only. Rapid economic growth and the rise in the price of housing have made older people happier than youth since the early 2010s.     

我国房地产内在发展路径分析

我国经济发展是房地产市场中长期稳中向好的支撑.我国的城镇化发展战略会迎来新一轮有效的住房需求.促进房地产市场的稳定发展,必须把握房地产市场的发展规律,增强政策制定的合理性和科学性,引导房地产开发商和消费者的理性行为.     

青海入境旅游客源市场结构演化的SSM分析

本文运用SSM分析方法,以2000—2009年青海入境旅游统计数据为依据,对青海入境旅游客源市场结构变化进行分析。结果表明:2000年以来,青海入境旅游客源市场总体发展水平远远低于全国水平;总结构偏离分量为正,市场结构效果较好;总竞争力偏离分量为负,市场竞争力较弱。同时,入境客源市场中台、日、新加坡呈现结构份额下降趋势,美、德、韩、英等市场结构份额呈上升趋势且增加幅度较大,其他市场结构增加幅度较小;美、德、韩、澳大利亚市场竞争潜力较强,台、港、日、新加坡市场竞争潜力呈现弱化趋势。在此基础上有针对性地提出了青海省入境旅游市场进一步拓展的建议。     

Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour

Sustaining declines in fertility have increasingly become an alarming issue in most of the world economies. Many governments have been making enormous efforts to alleviate such intertwined problems as falling fertility and soaring elderly dependency. What really makes fertility rates fall? Does housing price have a role (as many argue)? Most researchers addressed this issue from a demographic perspective, but have yet to fully unravel the mystery of human fertility behaviour. The paper aims to investigate the novel linkages between birth rate, housing price and elderly dependency, with the case of Hong Kong. It employs two key methods: (i) the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to co-integration procedure and (ii) Granger causality, to disentangle the complicated relationships, long-run and short-run. The empirical results show that a 1 percent increase in housing prices and elderly leads to 0.52% and 1.65% decreases in birth rate respectively. Besides, both housing price and elderly dependency Granger cause birth rate in the long-run. Our findings not only shed light on fertility behaviour, but also provide implications for policy change. That is particularly relevant to those economies whose low fertility situations need to be ameliorated.     

2011年上海住房价格指数研究报告

2012年房地产调控政策已明确定调,“促进房价合理回归”为2012年楼市调控目标,“巩固房地产市场调控成果”为2012年楼市调控主题。上海将贯彻落实中央关于加强房地产调控的政策措施,“实现全年新建住房价格稳中有降”。调控目标的实现须以准确把握市场价格走势为前提,基于2011年上海住房价格指数趋势,未来房地产市场调控政策的调整应强化差别化政策：一是明确并加强对“刚需”的支持,尤其是差别化金融支持;二是对现有的调控政策合理评估,根据市场情况,适时调整政策执行力度。     

Enhancing Estimation for Interest Rate Diffusion Models With Bond Prices

We consider improving estimating parameters of diffusion processes for interest rates by incorporating information in bond prices. This is designed to improve the estimation of the drift parameters, which are known to be subject to large estimation errors. It is shown that having the bond prices together with the short rates leads to more efficient estimation of all parameters for the interest rate models. It enhances the estimation efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimation based on the interest rate dynamics alone. The combined estimation based on the bond prices and the interest rate dynamics can also provide inference to the risk premium parameter. Simulation experiments were conducted to confirm the theoretical properties of the estimators concerned. We analyze the overnight Fed fund rates together with the U.S. Treasury bond prices. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

高管激励调整、会计信息质量与公司股价崩盘风险

高管作为企业运营的核心主体,其薪酬激励方式的选择与调整是决定公司风险防控和未来发展的关键因素。以2007—2020年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,实证检验了高管激励调整对公司股价崩盘风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现,高管激励调整、高管激励方式由现金调整为股票期权、高管激励调整次数上升均能够显著降低上市公司股价崩盘风险,且会计信息质量在高管激励调整对公司股价崩盘风险的影响中发挥了部分中介效应。异质性分析表明,高管激励调整对股价崩盘风险的缓解效应仅显著存在于处于成长期或成熟期(而非衰退期)以及分析师关注度较高的企业中。因此,企业应建立相对灵活的薪酬激励长效机制,根据不同生命周期设计合理的奖惩制度,并适度调整契约条款,进而防范公司股价崩盘风险。