伊迪丝·华顿在《纯真年代》中对人性的理解

伊迪丝·华顿是美国文学史上最具影响力的女性作家之一,她的作品体裁广泛,尤以小说见长.其中《纯真年代》是最具代表性的一部.通过分析华顿对几位主人公的细致刻画和描写来探寻她在这部小说中对人性的理解,认为其理解具有明显的矛盾性和局限性.这些在三位主人公身上有着很好的体现.纽兰·阿切尔是一个勇敢的懦夫和理想主义者；梅·伟兰是一个复杂的社会产物,貌似单纯无知的外表下深藏心机；艾伦·奥兰斯卡是一个对社会传统的温和的反派人物,神秘、勇敢、崇尚自由却最终只能向传统低头.这与当时的社会背景以及她本人的人生经历是密不可分的.     

Estimation of partially linear single-index additive hazards model with current status data

In this paper, we introduce a partially linear single-index additive hazards model with current status data. Both the unknown link function of the single-index term and the cumulative baseline hazard function are approximated by B-splines under a monotonicity constraint on the latter. The sieve method is applied to estimate the nonparametric and parametric components simultaneously. We show that, when the nonparametric link function is an exact B-spline, the resultant estimator of regression parameter vector is asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric information bound and the rate of convergence of the estimator for the cumulative baseline hazard function is optimal. Simulation studies are presented to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimation method. For illustration, we apply the method to a clinical dataset with current status outcome.     

Looking Upstream: Optimal Policies for a Class of Capacitated Multi‐Stage Inventory Systems

We consider a multi‐stage inventory system with stochastic demand and processing capacity constraints at each stage, for both finite‐horizon and infinite‐horizon, discounted‐cost settings. For a class of such systems characterized by having the smallest capacity at the most downstream stage and system utilization above a certain threshold, we identify the structure of the optimal policy, which represents a novel variation of the order‐up‐to policy. We find the explicit functional form of the optimal order‐up‐to levels, and show that they depend (only) on upstream echelon inventories. We establish that, above the threshold utilization, this optimal policy achieves the decomposition of the multidimensional objective cost function for the system into a sum of single‐dimensional convex functions. This decomposition eliminates the curse of dimensionality and allows us to numerically solve the problem. We provide a fast algorithm to determine a (tight) upper bound on this threshold utilization for capacity‐constrained inventory problems with an arbitrary number of stages. We make use of this algorithm to quantify upper bounds on the threshold utilization for three‐, four‐, and five‐stage capacitated systems over a range of model parameters, and discuss insights that emerge.     

再论过去分词形容词的语用制约

制约是一种对语言使用产生某种限制或规约的语言运作机制。“语用制约”是指HN（名词中心词）与其前置修饰语之间在使用过程中形成的互动和限制。纵聚合语义信息制约要求APP（过去分词式形容词）必须能刻画出HN所指的超越典型的区分性特征和非常状态。最简结构制约要求APP＋HN实现语符数最小化，同时达到所承载的语义信息量最大化。从属性上看，纵聚合语义信息制约为语义性制约；而最简结构制约则为结构性制约。     

西部水电开发的生态制约与对策

水电资源开发对生态环境的影响，既有积极一面，又有消极一面。从总体上说，大型水坝给有关生态系统，特别是物种所造成的影响往往是负面多于正面。西部水电建设进入了一个与过去的技术、资金、市场机制制约完全不同的阶段——生态制约阶段。鉴于水电开发已经面临生态之忧，应当适当调整开发政策，采取相应对策，以便加强开发中的生态保护。     

Bayesian Inference and Forecasting in Dynamic Neural Networks with Fully Markov Switching ARCH Noises

We deal with one-layer feed-forward neural network for the Bayesian analysis of nonlinear time series. Noises are modeled nonlinearly and nonnormally, by means of ARCH models whose parameters are all dependent on a hidden Markov chain. Parameter estimation is performed by sampling from the posterior distribution via Evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm, in which two new crossover operators have been introduced. Unknown parameters of the model also include the missing values which can occur within the observed series, so, considering future values as missing, it is also possible to compute point and interval multi-step-ahead predictions.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multinomial‐Poisson Models: A Generalization of Birch's Numerical Invariance Results

Abstract. This study gives a generalization of Birch's log‐linear model numerical invariance result. The generalization is given in the form of a sufficient condition for numerical invariance that is simple to verify in practice and is applicable for a much broader class of models than log‐linear models. Unlike Birch's log‐linear result, the generalization herein does not rely on any relationship between sufficient statistics and maximum likelihood estimates. Indeed the generalization does not rely on the existence of a reduced set of sufficient statistics. Instead, the concept of homogeneity takes centre stage. Several examples illustrate the utility of non‐log‐linear models, the invariance (and non‐invariance) of fitted values, and the invariance (and non‐invariance) of certain approximating distributions.     

社会资本投资与中小企业融资约束--基于中国中小板上市公司的实证分析

通过将社会资本投资因素引入欧拉投资模型,探析了社会资本投资对中小企业融资约束的动态影响,并以2008—2012年深交所中小板上市公司为研究样本,实证检验社会资本投资对中小企业融资约束的缓解作用。结果发现：中国中小企业投资支出与内部经营活动现金流显著正相关,普遍面临融资约束问题;而娱乐支出和获得直接政治关联是中小企业构建关系社会资本的有效措施,能在很大程度上缓解企业的融资约束。     

资源环境约束下的新疆工业发展方式研究

新疆工业化进程面临巨大的资源和环境约束,新疆脆弱的生态环境和有限的资源供给已经难以支撑粗放的工业发展方式。随着资源环境约束的日益显现,新疆必须通过技术创新、转变工业发展方式、发展循环经济来缓解资源环境压力,走新型工业化道路,实现资源环境约束下的新疆工业可持续发展。     

工具理性的拯救——中国特色社会主义市场经济下的道德约束重建

由于我国市场经济的发展一开始就融入到国际化的分工之中,因此不能像西方经典市场经济一样,自发地衍生出与之相匹配的道德约束,这也使得我国社会趋向"囚徒困境"。因此,只能依靠外在的有意识的道德约束建设来解决这个问题。而这种道德约束建设要通过信任的建立来降低利他行为作出的成本,从而建立起利他行为生发体系,进而达成道德约束的建设。