现金股利政策与股价崩盘风险——基于股利“替代”模型和“结果”模型之辨析

股价的崩盘严重干扰着我国资本市场的健康有序发展,也损害着投资者利益和公司价值.因此,探寻防范股价崩盘风险的机制具有重要的现实意义.以2007-2013年A股上市公司作为观测样本,实证考察了上市公司现金股利政策对股价崩盘风险的影响.研究发现,现金股利分配倾向与分配水平均与股价崩盘风险显著负相关;以会计稳健性水平作为信息披露质量的替代变量进一步研究后发现,信息披露质量的提升显著增强了现金股利分配与股价崩盘风险之间的敏感性.经验研究结果表明,我国上市公司的现金股利分配是公司治理改善的结果,从而支持了股利的“结果”模型,而非“替代”模型;同时也为现金股利政策与股市风险的相关性研究提供了增量的理论成果和经验证据,研究结论对于完善上市公司的现金股利政策和防范股市风险提供了一定的借鉴意义.     

公司治理对会计信息披露质量影响 ——基于我国生物医药业上市公司的实证研究

会计信息披露是企业向信息使用者揭示和反映企业价值运动,高质量的信息披露可以降低信息不对称程度,使投资者能更正确地做出判断.以生物医药业上市公司为例,采用Logistic回归分析方法,系统研究公司治理与会计信息的披露质量之间的关系,发现公司治理中的董事会规模、独立董事比例和监事会规模的提高会使得会计信息披露质量得到提高,董事会会议次数与会计信息披露质量显著负相关.     

A comparison study on modeling of clustered and overdispersed count data for multiple comparisons

Data collected in various scientific fields are count data. One way to analyze such data is to compare the individual levels of the factor treatment using multiple comparisons. However, the measured individuals are often clustered – e.g. according to litter or rearing. This must be considered when estimating the parameters by a repeated measurement model. In addition, ignoring the overdispersion to which count data is prone leads to an increase of the type one error rate. We carry out simulation studies using several different data settings and compare different multiple contrast tests with parameter estimates from generalized estimation equations and generalized linear mixed models in order to observe coverage and rejection probabilities. We generate overdispersed, clustered count data in small samples as can be observed in many biological settings. We have found that the generalized estimation equations outperform generalized linear mixed models if the variance-sandwich estimator is correctly specified. Furthermore, generalized linear mixed models show problems with the convergence rate under certain data settings, but there are model implementations with lower implications exists. Finally, we use an example of genetic data to demonstrate the application of the multiple contrast test and the problems of ignoring strong overdispersion.     

Conjugal intimacy,gender and modernity in contemporary China

The new generation of modernity theorists have forecast the democratization of gender relations within intimate relationships in late‐modern times. Chinese society has undergone rapid and dramatic changes in its unique trajectory of political, social and economic reform. Using China as an example of a region which has been largely ignored in contemporary social theory, this article enters the debate to contest the extent to which conjugal relationships are democratized in line with modernity. We further test the assertion that modern marriages are characterized by increased self‐disclosure and communication between partners. Data from a national survey on Chinese families is analysed in relation to the level of self‐disclosure between husbands and wives; gender division of housework; household decision‐making; and home ownership. We highlight the impact of gender, cohort and location (urban, rural or migrant) on experiences of modernity and draw attention to the material, social and cultural factors which continue to shape conjugal relations in contemporary Chinese society. Based on our findings, we contest the argument that disclosing intimacy between intimate partners is a defining characteristic of modern relationships, and suggest that other social factors may condition degrees of self‐disclosure in marriage. Similarly, we question the extent to which heterosexual conjugal equality is attained: the cultural practices and values of patrilineal family organization, together with material circumstances, continue to influence marital relations in China.     

Patterns of alcohol use and marijuana use among students at 2- and 4-year institutions

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand substance use patterns of alcohol, marijuana, and simultaneous alcohol and marijuana (SAM) use among 2- and 4-year college students. Participants: Participants were 526 young adults aged 18–23 (n?=?355 4-year students; n?=?171 2-year students) recruited from February 2015 to January 2016 who were participating in a larger longitudinal study. Methods: Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify past-month classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use. Results: Among both 2- and 4-year students, a four-class solution yielded the best-fitting model, with 2-year classes tending to include greater marijuana use and less alcohol use and 4-year classes tending to include heavy alcohol use. Demographic characteristics were largely similar across classes. Conclusions: Classes of alcohol, marijuana, and SAM use differed by education status. Screening and prevention efforts for 4-year students may need to be tailored for the needs of 2-year students.     

《电子商务法》视角下网约车平台的信息披露义务

近年来网约车平台的信息管控问题受到较多关注。网约车属于服务提供型电子商务平台,具有更强的人身安全保障需求,以区别于以实物商品为交易标的的商品提供型电子商务平台。网约车平台对于服务提供过程中的驾乘信息有强大的管控能力,同时也需承担承运人责任。《电子商务法》为电子商务平台直接或间接设定了信息披露义务,在《电子商务法》未明确规定或仅做原则性规定的情形下,网约车平台亦应当根据实际情况将相应信息做单独处理以满足乘客、利益相关人和国家机关合法的信息披露要求。在一般情况下,网约车平台需向一般公众提供平台信息与平台内经营者信息,特别是法律要求的基本信息,而在特殊情况下,网约车平台不仅需要提供相应个人信息与运营信息,还需满足披露质量上的即时性和全面性要求。     

公共企事业单位信息公开的路径选择——新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情引发的法律思考

新冠肺炎疫情中暴露出了信息公开制度的一系列问题,其中作为事业单位的疾控中心和医疗机构是否应当对相关疫情信息进行公开引起了公众的普遍关注。《中华人民共和国政府信息公开条例》对公共企事业单位只作了原则性的规定,现有的“最小存留适用”“最大限度适用”和“脱条例化”的公开路径理论均存在不同的缺陷。公共企事业单位作为一个整体对外虽然与行政机关存在相似性及差异性,但其相互之间也并不完全相同,公开主体与公开目的都存在一定的特殊性及不同之处,因而无法适用统一的公开路径,需遵循“入条例化”和“脱条例化”的双重路径进行信息公开。当公共企事业单位同时符合“实质控制”“公益性”和“弱竞争性”的标准时应当按照“入条例化”路径展开,否则按照“脱条例化”的路径进行公开。     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

论我国银行业信息披露的法律规制

国际经济一体化和金融全球化的背景下,银行业信息披露作为银行监管的必要补充,对保障银行业的投资者、存款人和其他利益相关人的利益,对促进银行业自身的发展,乃至整个银行体系的安全与稳健都具有重要意义。作者在介绍我国现行法律关于银行业信息披露规定的基础上,分析了存在的问题,并对完善我国银行业信息披露法律规制提出若干对策。