婚姻状态对老年人死亡概率的影响研究--基于CLHLS队列数据的实证分析

文章基于 CLHLS 队列数据,运用统计分析及经验论证,解析出婚姻状态影响老年人死亡概率的作用机理,即在婚状态以其“保护效应”减小老年人患病的机率,进而减小其死亡概率;相反,不在婚状态的“损害效应”会增加老年人患病的机率,进而增加其死亡的概率。在所得结论基础上,为促进老年健康和应对养老挑战,针对老年人婚姻问题提出了相关政策建议。     

基于职业性别隔离的女性就业创业问题研究--以成都市为例

女性就业是女性发展的基本内容,是女性获得经济独立并赢得社会性别平等的重要渠道。城镇居民就业普遍存在职业性别隔离且在水平与垂直方向均有所表现,女性职业（行业）普遍收入偏低,大量女性沉淀在职级较低岗位。文章以第六次人口普查数据为基础,统计了成都市30个服务行业与30个制造行业女性劳动力占所在行业的比例和女性就业结构构成,结合成都市人力资源市场岗位供给与求职需求分析,提出女性就业创业引导方向。     

Three notes on a political economy of youth

The paper seeks to makes a contribution to a recent debate in the Journal about what a political economy of youth might look like. The paper will take up aspects of Sukarieh and Tannock’s [2016. ‘On the political economy of youth: a comment.’ Journal of Youth Studies 19 (9): 1281–1289] response to the initial contributions by Côté [2014. ‘Towards a New Political Economy of Youth.’ Journal of Youth Studies 17 (4): 527–543, 2016. ‘A New Political Economy of Youth Reprised: Rejoinder to France and Threadgold.’ Journal of Youth Studies.] And France and Threadgold [2015. ‘Youth and Political Economy: Towards a Bourdieusian Approach.’ Journal of Youth Studies], and will take the form of three ‘notes’: Capitalism: From the first industrial revolution to the third industrial revolution; Youth as an artefact of governmentalised expertise; The agency/structure problem in youth studies: Foucault’s dispositif and post-human exceptionalism.

These notes will suggest that twenty-first century capitalism is globalising, is largely neo-Liberal, and is being reconfigured in profound ways by the Anthropocene, bio-genetics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). A political economy of twenty-first century capitalism, let alone a political economy of young people, must be able to account for a capitalism that in many ways looks like the capitalism of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions, but which is at the same time profoundly different as it enters what has often been described as the Third Industrial Revolution. It is these profound emergences that pose the greatest challenges for engaging with a political economy of youth.     

Confidence Corridors for Multivariate Generalized Quantile Regression

We focus on the construction of confidence corridors for multivariate nonparametric generalized quantile regression functions. This construction is based on asymptotic results for the maximal deviation between a suitable nonparametric estimator and the true function of interest, which follow after a series of approximation steps including a Bahadur representation, a new strong approximation theorem, and exponential tail inequalities for Gaussian random fields. As a byproduct we also obtain multivariate confidence corridors for the regression function in the classical mean regression. To deal with the problem of slowly decreasing error in coverage probability of the asymptotic confidence corridors, which results in meager coverage for small sample sizes, a simple bootstrap procedure is designed based on the leading term of the Bahadur representation. The finite-sample properties of both procedures are investigated by means of a simulation study and it is demonstrated that the bootstrap procedure considerably outperforms the asymptotic bands in terms of coverage accuracy. Finally, the bootstrap confidence corridors are used to study the efficacy of the National Supported Work Demonstration, which is a randomized employment enhancement program launched in the 1970s. This article has supplementary materials online.     

What Anonymous can tell us about the relationship between virtual community structure and participatory form

As a decentralised virtual community, Anonymous has been characterised by its oppositional tendencies. Helped by a collective persona and horizontal management structure, Anonymous has facilitated a myriad of differentiated agenda. However, we can observe a distinct change in its participatory form over time. So, while Anonymous, more broadly, functions as a virtual community, its means of engagement has shifted from a social movement to a decentralised cell network. This article explores the relationship between these changes, and its evolution as a virtual community. Drawing upon Iriberri and Leroy’s [(2009 Iriberri, A., and G. Leroy. 2009. “A Life-Cycle Perspective on Online Community Success.” ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 41 (2): 1–29. doi: 10.1145/1459352.1459356[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) “A Life-Cycle Perspective on Online Community Success.” ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 41 (2): 1–29] life cycle framework, the article maps Anonymous’ development and identifies the structural changes that have led to this transformation in its modes of participation.     

The Nature of the Political Reconsidered

I present an immanent, and explanatory, critique of reflections on the nature of politics and of power within political science. I argue that these reflections are problematic, to the extent that they presuppose an actualist conception of the political, and that this is generated by an empiricist way of thinking on the one hand and a constructivist way of thinking on the other. I show how re‐defining politics, power, and the political on the basis of a dialectical critical realist ontology resolves these problems and, thereby, allows us to understand the conditions for social change and the relationship between the political and the economic. My argument has two, important implications: first, that the proposal that those who study politics professionally should celebrate philosophical diversity is dangerous–at least if it makes it difficult to sustain a distinct, emancipatory form of political inquiry; and, second, that the nature of social reality justifies the need both for specialized forms of inquiry, such as politics and economics, and integrative forms of inquiry, such as political economy.     

教育期望中的班级效应分析

班级是中国基础教育领域重要的组织设置。利用“中国教育追踪调查”（CEPS）数据,应用分层线性模型,本研究关注班级设置,包括班级组织结构和班级氛围,对初中生教育期望的影响。研究结果表明,在多个组织结构变量中,班主任的受教育程度和教龄对学生教育期望影响显著,但任课老师的资历影响不显著;在多个班级氛围变量中,学生的教育期望既受到班级客观学业水平的影响,亦受到师生之间互动关系的影响。此外,在控制了班级氛围变量后,师资配置对学生教育期望的影响不再显著。总之,在以往研究重点关注个体、家庭和学校影响的基础上,本研究将对教育期望的研究进一步拓展到学校内部的班级环境,并发现师生之间建立的紧密互动关系及良好的班级氛围对学生的教育期望发挥着最重要的影响。     

Capital Structure of Nongovernmental Development Organizations

In the first international study of this kind, we analyze the capital structure of 364 nongovernmental development organizations (NGDOs) from three different countries: Belgium, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We observe lower debt ratio values in the United Kingdom, and significant differences between countries were found by testing an econometric model with the five classical determinants of leverage, considering total debt and both long‐ and short‐term debt. We find support for the pecking order theory, and we broadly discuss some possible reasons for the obtained differences.     

Structural and Contextual Factors Regarding the Accessibility of Elective Office for Women of Color at the Local Level

Different from the majority of past research on gender gaps in political officeholding, we adopt an intersectionality framework and move beyond traditional individual factors to explore what implications certain elements in the political opportunity structure may have for women and men of color elected officials serving in county, municipal, and local school board offices. We argue that structural and contextual factors, such as type of institutions, election systems, and jurisdictional racial makeup, may influence the calculations women of color make concerning the accessibility of elective office. Using data from the Gender and Multiracial Leadership (GMCL) project, we find county offices to be the least, and seats on school boards the most, accessible to women of color. Of the types of electoral arrangements, we find multimember districts (MMD) to be the most significant variable predicting the likelihood of women of color in office. Although both Black and Latina women benefit from having a significant share of coethnics or nonwhites in jurisdictions, the two groups of women have an opposite relationship to their racial constituent makeup than that held by their male counterparts.     

The expected and unexpected media effects on youth’s (mis)perceptions of peer norms: Chinese college students’ overestimation of peer smoking prevalence

Youth’s perceptions of peer norms have profound effects on their attitudes and behaviors. Unfortunately, their perceptions of peers tend to be biased. To investigate the role of media in the formation of misperceived peer norms, the current study tested and compared two media-effect mechanisms: the direct exemplar mechanism and the indirect influence of presumed influence (IPI) mechanism. The two mechanisms were tested in a sample (n = 1746) that is representative of college students in one large university in China, based on which the actual and perceived campus smoking rates were examined. The individual-level perceived peer smoking prevalence was then analyzed in comparison with the campus-level actual smoking prevalence. The results revealed serious overestimations of peer smoking prevalence. As predicted, pro-smoking media content significantly heightened smoking prevalence estimates through both exemplar and IPI mechanisms. In contrast, anti-smoking messages did not elicit any intended effect through the IPI mechanism, but showed a boomerang effect through the exemplar mechanism. These findings suggest that both pro- and anti-smoking media content may be responsible for inflated perceptions of peer smoking among youth.