基于VAR模型P2P网络借贷与传统金融市场之间的动态变化

基于P2P网络借贷市场2013年4月-2017年10月每日的综合利率数据进行脉冲响应分析,结果表明:P2P网络借贷利率与10年期国债收益率相互影响;P2P网络借贷利率与沪深300指数收益率不存在因果关系;P2P网络借贷利率与上海同业拆借利率（SHIBOR）存在相互影响。P2P网络借贷综合利率对于整体金融市场响应趋于零响应;10年期国债收益率对于P2P网络借贷利率正响应;上海同业拆借利率收益率对于P2P网络借贷利率是负响应;沪深300指数收益率对于P2P网络借贷利率是趋于零响应。最后,通过实证研究提出P2P网络借贷利率风险管理的建议。     

文化自为对文化自信的主体化建构

文化自信实现的关键在于文化自信的培育对象由被动盲目的他律客体转变为自觉主动的自律主体。文化自为以文化的反思性认知和创造性引领为核心内容,旨在使民族文化主体摆脱未展开的感性状态,走向理性自觉的发展阶段,推动民族文化实现真正意义上的自觉自信。文化主体身份意识的确认、文化黏性的增强和文化话语权的提升是文化自为证成文化自信的内在理路。而激活个体主体性、凝聚集体主体性和锻造话语主体性则是文化自为对文化自信的主体化建构路径。     

论马克思对康德先验时间理论的继承和超越

马克思的社会历史条件下的实践时间是一种原初的时间,是人与自然界显现的条件,因此,就时间作为经验的显现条件而言,马克思继承了康德的先验时间理论。但马克思的先验时间对康德的先验时间有三重超越。第一,马克思通过社会历史时间和实践时间的内容性,超越了康德先验时间的形式化、量化特征,实现了一种更优先的先验时间建构,并且包含更细致的对人的生存的关怀;第二,马克思通过其社会历史时间和实践时间,克服了主观先验时间带来的物自体概念,超越了主观时间对道德起源与结果解释的缺位,并且为主观时间本身奠基;第三,马克思的先验时间超越了康德先验时间的固化,实现了先验时间的自我建构,克服了固化时间在时间的唯一性和同时性等方面的局限性,扬弃了因果时间造成的显象界的不自由,以社会历史中的实践时间的不断进化超越了康德先验时间的故步自封。     

Heterogeneity: A Major Factor Influencing Microbial Exposure and Risk Assessment

Microbial risk assessment is dependent on several biological and environmental factors that affect both the exposure characteristics to the biological agents and the mechanisms of pathogenicity involved in the pathogen‐host relationship. Many exposure assessment studies still focus on the location parameters of the probability distribution representing the concentration of the pathogens and/or toxin. However, the mean or median by themselves are insufficient to evaluate the adverse effects that are associated with a given level of exposure. Therefore, the effects on the risk of disease of a number of factors, including the shape parameters characterizing the distribution patterns of the pathogen in their environment, were investigated. The statistical models, which were developed to provide a better understanding of the factors influencing the risk, highlight the role of heterogeneity and its consequences on the commonly used risk assessment paradigm. Indeed, the heterogeneity characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the pathogen and/or the toxin contained in the water or food consumed is shown to be a major factor that may influence the magnitude of the risk dramatically. In general, the risk diminishes with higher levels of heterogeneity. This scheme is totally inverted in the presence of a threshold in the dose‐response relationship, since heterogeneity will then have a tremendous impact, namely, by magnifying the risk when the mean concentration of pathogens is below the threshold. Moreover, the approach of this article may be useful for risk ranking analysis, regarding different exposure conditions, and may also lead to improved water and food quality guidelines.     

经济不确定性（风险）对股票流动性共性的影响

股票流动性共性可用来衡量股市系统流动性风险。双向固定效应的面板数据分析显示:由宏观经济变量的增长比率构建而成的经济不确定性减弱股票流动性共性，经济风险增强流动性共性；不确定性对股票流动性共性的影响并非对称于风险；不确定性（风险）对股票流动性共性的预测比对当期股票流动性共性的影响更为显著。向量自回归的脉冲响应函数分析显示:股票市场流动性共性对经济不确定性的冲击做出负响应，对经济风险的冲击做出正响应；响应的程度在未来一两个月增强，随后减弱。     

Aldrin and Dieldrin: A Reevaluation of the Cancer and Noncancer Dose‐Response Assessments

The dose‐response analyses of cancer and noncancer health effects of aldrin and dieldrin were evaluated using current methodology, including benchmark dose analysis and the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) guidance on body weight scaling and uncertainty factors. A literature review was performed to determine the most appropriate adverse effect endpoints. Using current methodology and information, the estimated reference dose values were 0.0001 and 0.00008 mg/kg‐day for aldrin and dieldrin, respectively. The estimated cancer slope factors for aldrin and dieldrin were 3.4 and 7.0 (mg/kg‐day)^?1, respectively (i.e., about 5‐ and 2.3‐fold lower risk than the 1987 U.S. EPA assessments). Because aldrin and dieldrin are no longer used as pesticides in the United States, they are presumed to be a low priority for additional review by the U.S. EPA. However, because they are persistent and still detected in environmental samples, quantitative risk assessments based on the best available methods are required. Recent epidemiologic studies do not demonstrate a causal association between aldrin and dieldrin and human cancer risk. The proposed reevaluations suggest that these two compounds pose a lower human health risk than currently reported by the U.S. EPA.     

Modeling U‐Shaped Exposure‐Response Relationships for Agents that Demonstrate Toxicity Due to Both Excess and Deficiency

Essential elements such as copper and manganese may demonstrate U‐shaped exposure‐response relationships due to toxic responses occurring as a result of both excess and deficiency. Previous work on a copper toxicity database employed CatReg, a software program for categorical regression developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to model copper excess and deficiency exposure‐response relationships separately. This analysis involved the use of a severity scoring system to place diverse toxic responses on a common severity scale, thereby allowing their inclusion in the same CatReg model. In this article, we present methods for simultaneously fitting excess and deficiency data in the form of a single U‐shaped exposure‐response curve, the minimum of which occurs at the exposure level that minimizes the probability of an adverse outcome due to either excess or deficiency (or both). We also present a closed‐form expression for the point at which the exposure‐response curves for excess and deficiency cross, corresponding to the exposure level at which the risk of an adverse outcome due to excess is equal to that for deficiency. The application of these methods is illustrated using the same copper toxicity database noted above. The use of these methods permits the analysis of all available exposure‐response data from multiple studies expressing multiple endpoints due to both excess and deficiency. The exposure level corresponding to the minimum of this U‐shaped curve, and the confidence limits around this exposure level, may be useful in establishing an acceptable range of exposures that minimize the overall risk associated with the agent of interest.     

涉农上市公司现金流量信息的市场反映检验

由于农业行业的特殊性,涉农上市公司的盈余信息质量一直以来受到投资者、监管者以及准则制定者的关注。现金流量信息是以收付实现制为基础的特殊盈余信息,投资者能否从涉农上市公司现金流量信息中,获取所需的决策信息值得研究。通过检验我国涉农上市公司的现金流量信息的市场反映后发现,投资者对不同内容的现金流量信息反映有所不同,而且农业上市公司现金流量信息的决策价值并不高,信息含量也有待提高。     

反语回应的关联度策略研究

近年来,对反语回应的认知研究突破实验语境,转向自然语料,但回应者的主体性尚未在语用层面得到充分重视。重审既有研究,本文从关联度着手对自然会话中的反语回应进行新的动态分析,认为:反语回应体现了人们对话语关联度的策略性选择,言者意图实现的交际效果是选择动因,对关联度的运用及动因的产生是多层面顺应交际语境的结果。     

同辈群体文化与当代学校道德教育

同辈群体文化是一种特殊形态的文化，是青少年学生自我实现一种方式。同辈群体文化的内容、性质、特征对青少年学生的思想价值观念和品德发展有着重要影响。合理利用同辈群体文化中的积极因素，通过转变德育观念，改进德育方法，增加德育途径，对提高德育实效有着不容忽视的作用。