Efficacy of Risk-Based, Culturally Sensitive Ogaa (Walleye) Consumption Advice for Anishinaabe Tribal Members in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) has produced Ogaa (walleye— Sander vitreus ) consumption advisories since 1996 for Anishinaabe from GLIFWC member tribes in the 1837 and 1842 ceded territories of Wisconsin. GLIFWC's advisory maps were revised in 2005 to address cultural sensitivities (to protect tribal lifeways), to utilize recent mercury exposure information, and to incorporate changes in advisory levels for methyl mercury. Lake-specific, risk-based, culturally sensitive consumption advice was provided on color-coded maps for two groups: children under age 15 years and females of childbearing age, and males 15 years and older and females beyond childbearing age. The maps were distributed to, and a behavioral intervention program developed for, the six GLIFWC member tribes in Wisconsin as well as member tribes in Minnesota and the 1842 ceded territory of Michigan. Tribal fish harvesters, tribal health care providers, women of childbearing age or with young children, tribal leaders, elders, and children were targeted specifically for the behavioral intervention. The efficacy of the behavioral intervention was assessed using surveys of 275 tribal fish harvesters from Wisconsin, 139 tribal harvesters from Michigan and Minnesota, and 156 Wisconsin women of childbearing age. Significant increases in the percentage of survey participants who indicated awareness of advisory maps occurred among Wisconsin harvesters (increase from 60% to 77%), Michigan and Minnesota harvesters (29% to 51%), and women of childbearing age in Wisconsin (40% to 87%). A significant increase in preference for smaller Ogaa occurred among tribal harvesters in Wisconsin (41% to 72%) and tribal harvesters in Michigan and Minnesota (49% to 71%), although not among women of childbearing age. The GLIFWC map-based advisory program did not adversely affect tribal harvest of Ogaa, which increased from 63,000 to 88,000 fish in the three states after the intervention.     

美国银行信用风险与宏观经济变量的实证研究

以2005年到2012年美国综合银行不良贷款的相关数据为样本，对影响美国银行信用风险的宏观经济变量进行实证检验。研究结果表明：美国综合银行的信用风险水平比较高，其信用风险水平与失业率有着显著的强正相关关系，而与 GDP增长率、消费者物价指数增长率、生产者物价指数增长率和广义货币增长率无关。实际上，美国银行业的信用风险经过金融衍生品分散转化后并没有消除，只是被隐藏起来了，并且逐步累积。有鉴于此，提高我国银行业信用风险管理水平措施包括：一是着重研究宏观经济波动以及政策的实施对信用风险的影响；二是提高就业率，保持宏观经济环境的良好状态；三是借鉴西方发达国家较为成熟的理论体系，形成适合我国的风险管理控制方法；四是提高对住房贷款业务的风险认识；五是重视信用文化建设和银行信用制度创新。     

试析反身宾语句的生成机制

反身宾语句生成有两个方面的因素，一是“身心二分”的“心支配身”认知框架，二是主观移情。反身宾语句有较强的描写性和事件伴随性，主要出现于文艺语体中。     

Social Support and its Correlation with Loneliness and Subjective Well-being: A Cross-cultural Study of Older Nepalese Adults

Population aging in Nepal is a recent phenomenon, due more to demographic changes than to socio-economic development. The study had three goals: to analyze the social support exchange among elderly men and women; to discover the main sources of support in loneliness and subjective well-being in the elderly; and to study the cross-cultural differences in support among elderly Chhetri ( N  = 137, mean age = 69.1 [7.2] years) and Newar people ( N  = 195, mean age = 68.8 [7.7] years) in one ward in Kathmandu. The data were collected using face-to-face interviews. The dependent variables were loneliness and subjective well-being (SWB). The results for both ethnic Chhetri and Newar respondents show that their major support comes from their children living in the same household and their spouses. I conclude that the sources of social support and social support exchange are similar between the two castes/ethnicities and that there are no cross-cultural differences between them in terms of support for loneliness and SWB-life stability, although there are cross-cultural differences in their SWB-life satisfaction. Providing social support to friends and neighbors appears to be related to less loneliness and increased SWB in both castes/ethnicities.     

Morality and Nuclear Energy: Perceptions of Risks and Benefits,Personal Norms,and Willingness to Take Action Related to Nuclear Energy

We examined factors underlying people's willingness to take action in favor of or against nuclear energy from a moral perspective. We conducted a questionnaire study among a sample of the Dutch population (N = 123). As expected, perceptions of risks and benefits were related to personal norms (PN), that is, feelings of moral obligation toward taking action in favor of or against nuclear energy. In turn, PN predicted willingness to take action. Furthermore, PN mediated the relationships between perceptions of risk and benefits and willingness to take action. In line with our hypothesis, beliefs about the risks and benefits of nuclear energy were less powerful in explaining PN for supporters compared to PN of opponents. Also, beliefs on risks and benefits and PN explained significantly more variance in willingness to take action of opponents than of supporters. Our results suggest that a moral framework is useful to explain willingness to take action in favor of and against nuclear energy, and that people are more likely to protest in favor of or against nuclear energy when PN are strong.     

试析涂尔干的社会学研究方法——以《宗教生活的基本形式》为例

社会学作为一门独立的学科 ,其研究对象和研究方法在其创始人孔德那里并不明确。只有到涂尔干的《社会学研究方法论》问世以后 ,这个问题才得以解决。但应该如何选择研究对象、界定研究概念、运用具体的研究方法 ,涂尔干在《宗教生活的基本形式》一书中给出了很好的答案。他的这些研究方法奠定了西方社会学方法论的基础。今天社会学的研究方法已经有了长足的发展 ,个案法、观察法、实验法、历史法、比较法、定性法、定量法等等早已运用于社会学研究的各个领域 ,但这些方法无一不是以包括涂尔干等人的方法论为基础发展起来的     

Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

Effect of family structure on life satisfaction: australian evidence

How do family arrangements affect subjective well-being? We investigate this issue using data pooled from the IsssA and HILDA, both large, representative national samples of Australia (pooled n=38 447). Our regression analysis of cross-sectional and panel data examines how large are the differences in life satisfaction according to marital status and cohabitation. We find that women and men in formal marriages experience higher levels of life satisfaction than do people in other family arrangements. Moreover, both multiple tests in the cross-section, and tests controlling for prior happiness in the panel analysis, suggest that this is a causal relationship. Aggregating up the levels of life satisfaction generated by different marriage and cohabitation arrangements across a lifetime, suggests that a life-long marriage is the most satisfying. Early divorce followed by an enduring second marriage is little worse (because little time is spent outside the married state). But divorce without remarriage, or long lasting cohabitation without formal marriage, reduce the lifetime sum of subjective well-being by 4–12% for both women and men.     

Subjective Distributions

A decision maker has to choose one of several random variables whose distributions are not known. As a Bayesian, she behaves as if she knew the distributions. In this paper we suggest an axiomatic derivation of these (subjective) distributions, which is more economical than the derivations by de Finetti or Savage. Whereas the latter derive the whole joint distribution of all the available random variables, our approach derives only the marginal distributions. Correspondingly, the preference questionnaire needed in our case is less smaller.     

教育创新:主体性教育与教育信息化的协同建构

"创新"是教育实践生命的源头.教育信息化为教育创新提供了前所未有的契机和条件;而主体性教育则为创新教育指示了方向,为教育信息化提出了内在的需求和动力.主体性教育与教育信息化交汇在此世纪之交有着教育发展规律的内在必然性,二者的协同建构将在人类教育创新史上产生一次巨大的质的飞跃.