Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?

Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by “exotic” or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low‐probability “failure modes” of well‐established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low‐probability (“small”) scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high‐probability high‐stakes risks following from low‐probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.     

"V他个C"句式的认知阐释

汉语中的"V他个C"作为一种完形句式,凸显主体计划通过某种活动达成某结果状态的决心。句式义的形成经历了一个模块分层组合的过程。先是C的[结果性]与[定量性]组合生成C的[目标性];接着,V的[自主性]、[未然性]与C的[目标性]合成VC的[计划性];最后,"个"、"他"对V、C语表距离的疏远与VC的[计划性]合成句式的决心义。句式义反作用于C,使C获得[主观大量]性。句式的决心义与"他"预指时的情态义相互匹配。     

信息不对称、道德风险与承担道德责任

人类理性化的征程试图建构的理性化世界是一个高度不确定性的世界,一个到处充满着信息不对称的世界。生活于这个世界中的人们面临着杂多的道德风险。为适应信息不对称时代的生存和发展,避免信息不对称招致的道德风险引发社会道德灾难,我们既需要通过制度化设计尽量使信息完全化,更需要唤醒社会成员的道德良知,使人们在道德良知的觉醒中自觉地承担道德责任。     

加强高校货币资金内部控制,降低财务风险

讨论了高校货币资金的内部控制和管理办法,并以北航为例,分别从货币资金 的岗位分工内部控制、授权审批控制、预算控制、日常管理以及监督检查几个方面介绍了北 航在货币资金内部控制中的管理办法,并指出高校财会人员自身素质的提高,将促进货币资 金内部控制制度的完善。     

The Rise and Fall of a Regulator: Adventure Sports in the United Kingdom

Following a tragic accident in 1993 involving the deaths of teenagers while kayaking a new regulatory regime was imposed upon some adventure sports providers in the United Kingdom. In particular, a new regulatory body, the Adventure Activities Licensing Authority (AALA), was established to oversee the sector. Yet in 2010, a government‐sponsored review recommended that AALA be abolished and this recommendation has been quickly accepted by government. This article explores the background to these developments through documentation, interviews with those affected by the AALA regime, and court cases. Evidence reported here, perhaps surprising, is that AALA itself is seen in a very positive light by many, even those it regulates. What may have happened is that AALA became caught up in a wider debate about the place and management of risk in life beyond the workplace, which has been simmering in the United Kingdom for a decade or more, and of which it fell foul. It may also be that adventure sports, because they entail voluntary engagement with high consequence hazards, starkly expose serious questions about the application of conventional, factory‐originated risk assessment approaches to life in general.     

Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks

Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible‐worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.     

城市农民工主观生活质量及其影响因素研究——基于上海浦东新区农民工调查数据的分析

本文基于2006年上海浦东新区农民工生活质量调查数据,对农民工的主观生活质量及其影响因素进行了研究。分析结果表明,1/3以上农民工对自己的总体生活质量表示满意;农民工的婚姻状况、月平均收入、居住类型和健康状况因素对其生活质量总体满意度有显著的影响,性别、年龄、受教育程度和居住时间因素对其生活质量总体满意度的影响不显著;通过因子分析得到的"工作和保障满意度"和"生活环境满意度"对农民工的生活质量总体满意度的影响最为显著。     

Judgments of Chemical Risks: Comparisons Among Senior Managers, Toxicologists, and the Public

Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.     

Risk Perceptions of Offshore Workers on UK Oil and Gas Platforms

Knowledge of the workforce's risk perceptions and attitudes to safety is necessary for the development of a safety culture, where each person accepts responsibility for working safely. The ACSNI Human Factors report stresses the importance of assessing workforce perceptions of risk to achieve a proper safety culture. Risk perception research has been criticized for insufficient analysis of the causal relationships between risk factors and perceived risk. The present study reports some of the factors which predicted risk perception in a sample of 622 employees from six UKCS offshore oil installations who completed a 15-section questionnaire. This paper focuses on the accuracy of workers' risk perceptions and what underlying factors predict the perception of personal risk from both major and minor hazards.     

对印度资本市场发展状况的考察

印度资本市场发展已近百年历史,其交易规模大,交易工具先进,且监管有力,尤其是以风险投资为特征的高技术企业的发展,对中国资本市场与企业发展具有诸多启示.