关于外语教学中多媒体辅助手段与传统教学模式契合的思考

二十一世纪多媒体技术的应用给外语教学带来了挑战和机会,打破以单一方式进行单向传播的传统教学模式创建多媒体环境下的英语教学模式势在必行。本文以构建主义理论,人本主义理论和互动主义理论为主要依据,结合外语教学特点从多媒体角度对课堂教学方式进行探讨,以期找出它与传统教学方式的最佳契合点。     

战后20年文学论纲

以"战时8年文学"和"战后20年文学"的思路替代以往的"40年代文学"和"17年文学"的思路,能立足于完整意义上的中国文学,打通原先被分割成"现代文学"和"当代文学"的"两种时期"文学间的内在联系。在战后东亚现代性曲折展开的背景下,1945年至60年代后期的中国文学,构成了一个新的时期。这一时期的中国大陆、台湾、香港的文学各有其流变脉络,战后香港文学在意识形态对峙中开始其文化个性和文学品格的寻求,战后台湾文学突破国民党政治高压,在文学思潮引发的文学传承和转换、创作多元典律的构建等方面呈现出影响中国文学整体格局的重要走脉,战后中国内地文学则开始了原旨意义的延安文学理想和激进实践的延安文学理想间的复杂纠结。这些流变恰恰呈现出战后中国文学的共同性,并从整体上构成了一个进入"民族新文学的自觉自立"前的过渡时期,其蕴含的丰富课题及其实践,初步形成了中国文学分合有致的多元格局;所提供的文学范式,则包含着民族新文学面临政治困境、经济转型、社会变革作出各种应对的历史经验。这种视野中的40年代至60年代的中国文学史,其丰富性和历史传承性,提供了20世纪中国文学历史整合的重要基石。     

论行政道德建设的运行机制

坚持行政目标管理与行政道德要求、精神激励与物质激励、政策保障与经济保障、领导与群众、法治与德治、全过程监督与全方位监督的相结合,从而建立并健全考核机制、激励机制、保障机制、互动机制、规范机制和监督机制是促进行政道德建设健康发展的根本措施。     

坚持用“三个代表”思想指导大学生理想信念教育

江泽民同志和党中央提出的"三个代表"思想不仅赋予理想信念教育以丰富内涵,而且对于深入开展理想信念教育具有极强的指导作用.必须正确认识"三个代表"思想与共产党人理想信念的内在联系,坚持用"三个代表"思想指导大学生理想信念教育,努力做好结合文章,把理想信念教育推向深入.     

日本现代化初期东西文化冲突给中国当代文化走向的启示

日本在明治初期东西方文化的激烈冲突中出现了一些失误 ,导致现代化进程很大程度上偏离了健康的轨道。吸取日本文化走向的经验教训 ,中国当代文化应该调整好中西文化的比例 ,调整好科技文化和人文文化的比例 ,确立中国文化的主体意识 ,积极扶持和发展人文文化     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

中小型商业裙楼经营模式研究与创新——以南京市为例

以南京市为例，分析中小型商业裙楼空置的原因，研究现有商业地产经营模式，进行租售结合模式创新，提出适合中小型商业裙楼项目的节点招商，对比其他租售结合模式，明确节点招商的权属、租务合同等问题，详述其适用性和操作过程，并提出可能存在的问题。     

论义务教育优质均衡发展之中国模式

改革开放以来，我国在基本普及九年义务教育的基础上，适时地提出了义务教育的优质均衡发展。在特殊的政治经济文化体制下，面对义务教育非均衡发展的客观现实，在科学发展观的指导下，义务教育优质均衡发展之中国模式，必须坚持党的领导，正确规划教师队伍建设，走稳步渐进改革的中国化道路，只有这样才能破解中国义务教育均衡发展中面临的一系列问题，为构建和谐社会打下坚实基础。     

企业投资风险的度量预测方法和防范策略研究

投资风险是投资活动中实际值达不到期望值的程度。利用期望值、标准差和标准差系数的概念 ,可以度量和预测企业投资项目风险的大小。作者从单个投资项目、二个投资项目和多个投资项目的角度给出了投资风险度量和预测的模型。最后指出企业投资风险的十条防范策略和四条具体措施