What to Do at Low Doses: A Bounding Approach for Economic Analysis

To quantify the health benefits of environmental policies, economists generally require estimates of the reduced probability of illness or death. For policies that reduce exposure to carcinogenic substances, these estimates traditionally have been obtained through the linear extrapolation of experimental dose-response data to low-exposure scenarios as described in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment (1986). In response to evolving scientific knowledge, EPA proposed revisions to the guidelines in 1996. Under the proposed revisions, dose-response relationships would not be estimated for carcinogens thought to exhibit nonlinear modes of action. Such a change in cancer-risk assessment methods and outputs will likely have serious consequences for how benefit-cost analyses of policies aimed at reducing cancer risks are conducted. Any tendency for reduced quantification of effects in environmental risk assessments, such as those contemplated in the revisions to EPA's cancer-risk assessment guidelines, impedes the ability of economic analysts to respond to increasing calls for benefit-cost analysis. This article examines the implications for benefit-cost analysis of carcinogenic exposures of the proposed changes to the 1986 Guidelines and proposes an approach for bounding dose-response relationships when no biologically based models are available. In spite of the more limited quantitative information provided in a carcinogen risk assessment under the proposed revisions to the guidelines, we argue that reasonable bounds on dose-response relationships can be estimated for low-level exposures to nonlinear carcinogens. This approach yields estimates of reduced illness for use in a benefit-cost analysis while incorporating evidence of nonlinearities in the dose-response relationship. As an illustration, the bounding approach is applied to the case of chloroform exposure.     

乐教与儒者的宗教情怀

乐教是理解儒家精神不可忽视的重要方面。乐教扎根于“亲亲”之情,具体体现为与“忧患意识”有别,而与“安”“乐”相协调一致的“怛”和“哀”“悲”之情。此情实质上是超越的天道内化为人的心性而落实下来的生命意义与价值得以呈现的方式。儒者虽深知人生之哀、悲,但以乐入手,解悟和转化现实的人生与宇宙,是一大特色。如此,宗教情怀转化为现实的人生关怀,成为特有的礼乐文明的核心内涵。     

The State of Care Management in Learning Disability and Mental Health Services 12 Years into Community Care

This paper reports on the organization of care management froma longitudinal study of community care for people resettledfrom long-stay learning disability and psychiatric hospitals.The findings from a 12-year follow-up of care management arrangementsin 12 learning disability and eight mental health study siteservices are described. The diversity of care management arrangementsfound at earlier points in the evaluation remained evident.Also, many of the former ‘care in the community’service users were excluded from mainstream care managementarrangements in their localities. The difficulty of developingperson-centred arrangements in learning disability and the lackof integration of the Care Programme Approach and care managementwere evident. The findings and observations are placed in thewider policy and practice context, with suggestions for takingcare management forward nationally and locally.     

Improving Convergence of the HastingsMetropolis Algorithm with an Adaptive Proposal

The HastingsMetropolis algorithm is a general MCMC method for sampling from a density known up to a constant. Geometric convergence of this algorithm has been proved under conditions relative to the instrumental (or proposal) distribution. We present an inhomogeneous HastingsMetropolis algorithm for which the proposal density approximates the target density, as the number of iterations increases. The proposal density at the n th step is a non-parametric estimate of the density of the algorithm, and uses an increasing number of i.i.d. copies of the Markov chain. The resulting algorithm converges (in n ) geometrically faster than a HastingsMetropolis algorithm with any fixed proposal distribution. The case of a strictly positive density with compact support is presented first, then an extension to more general densities is given. We conclude by proposing a practical way of implementation for the algorithm, and illustrate it over simulated examples.     

维护校园网络环境纯洁促进教育管理工作发展--网络文明调查带来的思考

通过调查,掌握第一手资料,了解目前我院校园网络中存在的问题与不足,并从我院的实际出发,结合学生教育管理工作的特点,提出了一些创造性的观点与建议,为我院学生教育管理工作更好开展提供了借鉴.     

思想政治教育的文化本性与文化选择

思想政治教育具有其特殊的文化本性。从教育内容上看 ,思想政治教育是一种特殊的文化传播 ;从教育的主客体属性及其运作过程看 ,它主要是文化原理的运作 ,是一个文化过程 ;从其作为社会统治和控制手段看 ,它是一种人文力。这种文化本性要求思想政治教育必须遵循文化的逻辑 ,进行正确的文化选择。一是要弘扬中国传统文化精华 ,抵御西方文化中的消极因素 ,二是要严格按照教育目的进行文化选择 ,三是要提高教育者的文化素质 ,强化文化选择 ,四是要加强亚文化建设 ,引导受教育者的文化选择。这既有助于实现思想政治教育的目的 ,而且达到了文化价值的展现     

Developing a typology of the 'duty to work', as experienced by lay persons with musculoskeletal disorders

Musculoskeletal diagnoses account for the majority of cases of reduced work capacity. This article investigates lay persons' strategies in relation to work and musculoskeletal disorders. Twenty interviews were conducted and analysed using grounded theory. A typology of self-presentations was developed. The interviewees' self-presentations revealed a strong sense of a 'duty to work'. This sense of duty took four different forms, leading us to categorise persons expressing particular forms as workaholics, work manics, workhorses or relaxed workers. Relaxed workers seem to have the best prognosis for recovery as they had a confident self-agency and worked to fulfil their own needs rather than those of others. This was in contrast to work manics, with an uncertain self-agency and driven to work by others' needs. In conclusion, awareness of such linguistic forms as self-attributions and idiomatic phrases provides an opportunity to identify and talk about individual's self-agency and driving forces in the recovery process.     

论工艺的观念和审美属性

工艺不仅是一种现象 ,而且还是一种精神。对工艺内涵的界定 ,如果仅凭直观 ,是不可能满足定义要求的。为了正确地把握工艺的本质 ,需要运用辩证的思维和发展的眼光 ,在精神层面展开研究。同时 ,将其纳入人类审美文化发展的广阔的视野 ,才能进一步看清工艺的审美属性 ,了解它的价值和意义     

The Experience of Gender Change in Public Sector Organizations

The state has a twofold relationship to gender change in society, through its overall steering capacity and through the gendered character of its constituent agencies. It is therefore important to understand the experience of gender change in state organizations. The findings from a study of gender relations in ten public‐sector worksites in New South Wales, Australia are presented. There is a widespread consciousness of gender change linked with new labour processes, restructuring and new patterns of management. These changes are uneven and limits to change are visible. Gender is recognized as an organizational problem in specific circumstances, most visibly where men’s resistance to change appears. A number of mechanisms limit the consciousness of gender as a problem. Several trends, including the current strength of neo‐liberalism, converge to make the gender‐neutral workplace the principal goal of gender reform in the public‐sector workplace. This, however, limits the state’s steering capacity in regard to societal gender relations.     

Community-based household waste management: Lessons learnt from EXNORA's ‘zero waste management’ scheme in two South Indian cities

This paper presents two case studies on the efforts by a community-based organisation to promote a sustainable integrated waste management system in Indian mega cities. This effort was initiated in 1989 by a local non-governmental organisation (NGO) called EXNORA and is based on a ‘zero waste management scheme’ set up, run and financed by the residents themselves. As this model has been widely quoted as successful, the study aims at learning from two communities implementing this model.Results are reported from a survey of the two schemes that used various tools to assess both their performance and sustainability in selected residential areas of two Indian cities, Chennai and Hyderabad. The results indicate limited success of the schemes both in saving a significant fraction of the generated waste from dumping, and in rehabilitating the local poor. However, they show that motivated individuals can successfully set up and manage waste collection systems that lead to overall environmental improvements. The differences in the two schemes reflect how the local assets and contexts impact on the success of the scheme. The scheme in a rich neighbourhood of Hyderabad was less ambitious in its overall objectives and focussed on the provision of a waste management service, using the opportunity to provide local employment to a socially deprived fraction of the population. The scheme in a middle-class area of Chennai, although pioneering in its approach, suffered from diseconomies of scale and lack of social integration, making it less viable in the medium to long term. Both schemes suffered from a lack of community involvement, motivation and political support, which threatens the long-term sustainability of the enterprise. The research concludes that the role that communities can realistically play in management of their own waste depends on the local context. The system advocated by EXNORA seems to require significant local resources, and political and technical support which are hard to find and sustain without strong local leaders. Another model set up in the city of Visakhapatnam is finally introduced as an alternative. This is based on triangular contracts between the municipality, the residents and micro-enterprises and may provide a good solution in dealing with the technical and commercial aspects which communities find difficult.