Small area estimation for longitudinal surveys

Over the last few years many studies have been carried out in Italy to identify reliable small area labour force indicators. Considering the rotated sample design of the Italian Labour Force Survey, the aim of this work is to derive a small area estimator which borrows strength from individual temporal correlation, as well as from related areas. Two small area estimators are derived as extensions of an estimation strategies proposed by Fuller (1990) for partial overlap samples. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the gain in efficiency provided by our solutions. Results obtained for different levels of autocorrelation between repeated measurements on the same outcome and different population settings show that these estimators are always more reliable than the traditional composite one, and in some circumstances they are extremely advantageous.The present paper is financially supported by Murst-Cofin (2001) Lutilizzo di informazioni di tipo amministrativo nella stima per piccole aree e per sottoinsiemi della popolazione (National Coordinator Prof. Carlo Filippucci).     

Industrialization, class structure, and social mobility in postwar Japan

This study examines intergenerational class mobility in Japan using cross-national comparisons with Western nations and cross-temporal comparisons of five national surveys conducted in postwar Japan. Cross-national comparisons highlight the similarity in relative mobility pattern between Japan and Western nations and at the same time the Japanese distinctiveness in absolute mobility rates especially regarding the demographic character of the Japanese manual working class. The results of cross-temporal comparisons of mobility pattern report some systematic trends in total mobility, inflow and outflow rates, reflecting the Japanese experience of late but rapid industrialization. The pattern of association between class origin and class destination, however, was stable in postwar Japan. It is therefore the combination of distinctive absolute mobility rates and similar relative mobility rates that characterizes the Japanese mobility pattern in comparison with the Western experience. Furthermore, Japan's distinctive pattern of postwar social mobility is characterized by a combination of rapidly changing absolute mobility rates and comparatively stable relative mobility rates.     

时间贝叶斯网络及其概率推理

针对贝叶斯网络应用中出现的循环和动态问题,研究贝叶斯网络的时间扩展.给出了时间贝叶斯网络的定义;探讨了时间贝叶斯网络中环的存在合理性判断问题;给出了时间贝叶斯网络的概率推理算法,应用示例说明了方法的可行性.     

从人才流动的视角看政府对企业年金的指导

企业年金制度是企业自愿采用的旨在为本企业职工提供退休生活保障的一种制度,同时它对企业人才也具有激励作用。本文从企业年金计划中的缴费、既得收益权、年金基金的转移及领取等环节说明企业年金制度会对人才流动产生双重影响,从而指出政府对企业年金制度进行指导的必要性。     

没收财产刑中“财产”的时间限定

我国刑法关于没收财产刑的规定有一定缺陷,基于刑事责任的确立根据、刑罚的功能、他人合法行为的效力、刑罚的确定性、刑事政策等五个方面的理由,没收财产刑中的“财产”应当限定为犯罪行为实施时的财产。     

中国城乡居民代际收入流动分析

利用CGSS提供的中国28个省区微观调查数据,应用Atkinson回归模型和转移矩阵两种度量代际收入流动性的方法,研究了中国2005年的城乡居民代际收入流动性及其影响因素。研究发现：代际收入在不同的分类下流动弹性并不大,其中城市的流动高于农村;东、中、西部的流动弹性呈现逐渐递减趋势。利用转移矩阵对流动性进行测度,研究表明：总体的代际收入流动有一种保持效应,即从最低等级转向高一等级的概率较小,从最高等级转向低一等级的概率也较小,总体的不同等级间的流动性较差。性别、年龄、受教育年限和家庭背景对个人收入的高低起着积极的作用。     

子女教育与家庭贫困的代际变动

子女教育是影响农村家庭贫困变动的一个重要因素。本文通过对14省区609户农村家庭调查结果分析,发现子女教育有加深父代家庭贫困状况的迹象,子女接受教育程度越高,自身一代家庭摆脱贫困的比例越高,并且能传承下代家庭使其免受贫困;家庭贫困代际变动的教育断裂点为15年(大专教育)。     

人口流动对健康的影响

在当今世界,人口流动的重要性日益突出,其对健康的影响也日益扩大。尽管涉猎人口流动与健康这个交叉领域的学者很多。但致力于考察前者对后者的影响的作品却为数不多。原因在于流行病学的视角局限了大家的视野。为了扭转这种局面,笔者强调指出,要考察人口流动对健康的影响,必须比较流动前后人群在健康状况方面的变化。以此为导向。在回顾文献的基础上。笔者初步回答了两个问题：流动对健康的影响体现在何处？这些影响得以实现的机制是什么？最后,笔者还为将来的研究提供了一些建议。     

要素跨国流动与比较优势变形:实证与理论拓展

比较优势理论是国际贸易理论的基石。通过考察"金砖国家"外资流入与显性比较优势指数变化,发现两者存在正相关性。在全球化经济下,对比较优势的把握应深入到要素层面,即要素质量、数量和要素组合共同决定比较优势。要素跨国流动对要素价格、质量、组合以及规模经济形成产生影响进而影响比较优势,由此,中国应立足提升要素质量的规划,参与全球化经济。     

Begging as work: a study of people with mobility difficulties in Accra, Ghana

Even though begging is illegal in Ghana, an increasing number of disabled people engage in it. Begging is not only abhorred by the law, but also regarded by many Ghanaians as stigmatizing and devaluing. Successive governments of the country and some non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have made efforts either to reduce or eliminate begging. The attempts made have, however, been unsuccessful and the disabled beggars involved have returned to the streets of Accra. The question is why is it difficult to reduce begging in the research area. While poverty, mobility needs, lack of education and employable skills and employment avenues are factors that explain the decision to start begging, it also seems that the ways in which beggars justify their activities contribute to its perseverance. The study aims at sensitizing policy-makers and other stakeholders in attempts to find empowering alternatives to begging.