Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

Examining cross-state variation in the increase in father-only families

Each state has the power to establish its own policy and laws relating to child custody determination. The number of single-parent families with children that are headed by fathers has been growing in the United States. This paper explores the extent of cross-state variation in the prevalence in father-only families in 1990, and the extent to which there was cross-state variation in the increase in father-only families in the 1980s. The 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) drawn from the US decennial censuses are used. Decomposition analyses of growth indicate that increases in the number of father-only families occurred across all states during this period, but at varying rates. The primary reason for the increase in most states is an increase in the proportion of ever-married single-parent families that are headed by a father. It is for these families that are headed by divorced or separated parents that state policy relating to child custody determination is most relevant.     

蒙古国的民族问题与民族政策

蒙古国的民族构成以蒙古族为主,占总人口的90％以上,蒙古族内的十几个部族虽然在方言、风俗习惯和服饰上有所差别,但能自由交流。哈萨克、乌梁海、图瓦、霍屯等突厥民族只占6％多一点。蒙古国民族问题的主要表现是哈萨克族的迁徙问题。在1991-1992年间就有4.1万人迁居到哈萨克斯坦国。迁徙的主要原因：一是蒙古国历届政府对民族理论和民族宗教政策的研究落实不得力;二是受国际大气候的影响,泛民族主义意识抬头。针对这种情况,蒙古国政府采取了协商解决一切问题的方针,及时出台了一些政策法规,收到了较好的成效。     

论中共二大提出"民族自决"的历史原因

本文认为,中共二大提出并不符合中国国情的民族自决主张,有其一定的必然性.这种必然性来自当时国际与国内、主观和客观诸种因素相互作用而产生的"历史合力".     

家庭托育点管理实践及启示：政策工具的视角

家庭托育点的规范化对婴幼儿健康成长至关重要。通过文献收集和访谈获得既往管理举措和当前试点政策,运用政策工具进行分析和总结,探究管理家庭托育点的背景、对象和措施。结果表明：家庭托育点因经济优势而被纳入管理,现有征求意见稿管理对象偏向小规模邻托,但试点和市场偏向较大收托规模;消防审查依托既有消防验收,师资准入要求偏低,质量监管依靠政府。管理建议：应根据收托规模区分小型和大型家庭托育点开展试点;完善三方协同的管理架构,设定专门空间环境要求,提高师资准入要求,建立综合质量监管。     

房价波动、宏观审慎及与货币政策的协调

运用QVAR模型和内嵌宏观审慎工具的DSGE模型,阐释了宏观审慎调控对房价波动的作用机制、政策效率以及与货币政策的协调。研究表明,宏观审慎政策通过规范居民住房融资行为,削弱了抵押品渠道所产生的金融加速器效应,从而实现了稳定房价波动和改善居民福利状况的调控目标。当存在供给侧价格黏性时,货币政策对房价波动作出反应有助于提升宏观审慎调控效果。因此,为实现宏观经济与金融体系的稳定,货币当局应采用盯住房价波动的货币政策来配合宏观审慎调控,充分发挥政策组合的协同效应。     

我国困境儿童政策优化与精准服务策略:文化敏感与需要满足

儿童具有天然的脆弱性和依存性,因而需要对其进行关爱保护和福利保障。近十年来,我国针对社会转型过程中大量出现的失依、残疾、重病、流浪、贫困、受虐、监护缺失等类型困境儿童出台了一系列生活保障和关爱保护的政策,试图构建适度普惠型儿童福利制度以促进儿童的福祉和发展。但受制于专业人才配置不足、专业理论指引不强以及基层工作人员行政思维惯性固化等因素,导致困境儿童政策与服务层面均存在文化敏感性不足的问题,表现于注重对象资格识别而对对象内部需求差异关注不足;注重儿童工作网络建设而对福利传递效能关注不足;注重货币化救助帮扶而对专业服务提供关注不足;注重活动化短期服务而对全生命周期服务关注不足。因此,在探索困境儿童政策优化和精准服务创新过程中,很有必要在文化敏感和需要理论指引下,应采取服务理念更新、福利制度优化、专业人才配置、多元主体整合、整体性服务供给等策略,以促进中国特色的儿童福利体系。     

Trade, education, and innovation: Prospects for the U.S. economy

This paper examines international trade issues as vital indicators of the economic prospects of the United States and other developed economies. In particular, it challenges misuses of the doctrine of mutual gains from trade and instead argues that comparative advantage does not guarantee increases in benefits to both trading partners—especially when one partner seeks to distort the market mechanism in its favor. In the face of such mercantilist or protectionist practices, efforts to advance innovation, without retaining manufacturing jobs, will not ensure continued prosperity, as the number of jobs entailed in the invention process is small compared with the number of jobs associated with manufacturing an innovative product for mass consumption. These matters call for the urgent rethinking of trade policy by the United States and other developed nations, if they are to balance their imports and exports and ensure continued economic growth.     

Child custody issues and co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence and child maltreatment: controversies and points of agreement amongst practitioners

The situation of families undergoing separation in a context of co‐occurrence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment raises certain issues related to child custody. The results presented in this paper were collected and analysed within the framework of a qualitative study aiming to identify the principal points of agreement and the main controversies amongst practitioners in several different types of organizations. Focus groups were held with a total of 43 practitioners from six different settings concerned with child custody in cases of co‐occurrence of IPV and child maltreatment. Although they agreed on the importance of ensuring the safety of victims of violence, their views diverged on three points: (1) the importance of preserving the father–child relationship; (2) collaboration between voluntary organizations and semi‐voluntary or legal agencies; and (3) consideration of cultural differences.     

抗战时期“近卫声明”的来龙去脉

1938年的三次“近卫声明”,都是日本政府为找到一个代表中国的谈判对手达到其侵略的目标而发布的。第一次近卫声明打开了诱降的大门,第二次、第三次近卫声明则是在日本大规模侵华军事进攻告一段落和汪精卫暗通日本的情况下发布的,完全体现了政治谋略为主、军事进攻为辅的方针,目的在于从政治上瓦解国民政府。三次近卫声明之中,以第二次近卫声明影响最为巨大而深远。