Rapid Climate Change and Society: Assessing Responses and Thresholds

Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.     

The preoccupation with thresholds in cases of child death or serious injury through abuse and neglect

Thresholds into and between services emerged as a significant theme in the biennial analysis of cases of child death and serious injury through abuse and neglect ‘serious case reviews’ carried out in England for the (then) Department for Education and Skills between 2003–05. The preoccupation with thresholds was one of a number of interacting risk factors and many children's cases were on the boundary of services and levels of intervention. In most cases child protection did not come ‘labelled as such’ which reinforces the need for all practitioners, including those working with adults to be alert to the risks of significant harm. Policy makers should acknowledge that staff working in early intervention are working within the safeguarding continuum and not in a separate sphere of activity. The emotional impact of working with hostility from violent parents and working with resistance from older adolescents impeded engagement, judgement and safeguarding action. In the long term neglect cases that were reviewed, the threshold for formal child protection services was rarely met and some agencies and practitioners coped with feelings of helplessness by adopting the ‘start again syndrome’. Adequate resources are essential but not sufficient to redress the problems. Effective and accessible supervision is crucial to help staff to put into practice the critical thinking required to understand cases holistically, complete analytical assessments, and weigh up interacting risk and protective factors. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

RANDOM THRESHOLD MODELS APPLIED TO INFLATED ZERO CLASS DATA

For a random component threshold model, the threshold parameters are functions of a linear combination of fixed and random components. This paper describes estimation procedures in terms of composite link functions. The models give a good fit to the frequency of use of medical procedures in the different counties of Washington State, USA. Suitable models for studying change in county effects in successive years are developed.     

Joint modeling of multivariate hearing thresholds measured longitudinally at multiple frequencies

Pure-tone thresholds are used to estimate hearing acuity and, when measured longitudinally, can characterize age-related changes in hearing. Measured at multiple-frequencies, multiple-irregular time points, for right and left ears, these longitudinal studies of age-related hearing loss produce data of inherent complexity due to: 1) multivariate outcomes at different frequencies; 2) longitudinal measurements taken at subject-specific time intervals; and 3) inter-ear correlations due to clustering and nesting. To address limitations in existing methods, we propose a multivariate generalized linear mixed model (mGLMM) and assess its performance. We demonstrate its application using a unique dataset from a cohort study of age-related hearing loss.     

Pathway Analysis for Population-Total Health Impacts of Toxic Metal Emissions

This article describes a simple model for quantifying the health impacts of toxic metal emissions. In contrast to most traditional models it calculates the expectation value of the total damage (summed over the total population and over all time) for typical emission sites, rather than "worst-case" estimates for specific sites or episodes. Such a model is needed for the evaluation of many environmental policy measures, e.g., the optimal level of pollution taxes or emission limits. Based on the methodology that has been developed by USEPA for the assessment of multimedia pathways, the equations and parameters are assembled for the assessment of As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, and Pb, and some typical results are presented (the dose from seafood is not included and for Hg the results are extremely uncertain); the model is freely available on the web. The structure of the model is very simple because, as we show, if the parameters can be approximated by time-independent constants (the case for the USEPA methodology), the total impacts can be calculated with steady-state models even though the environment is never in steady state. The collective ingestion dose is found to be roughly 2 orders of magnitude larger than the collective dose via inhalation. The uncertainties are large, easily an order of magnitude, the main uncertainties arising from the parameter values of the model, in particular the transfer factors. Using linearized dose-response functions, estimates are provided for cancers due to As, Cd, Cr, and Ni as well as IQ loss due to Pb emissions in Europe.     

Nonparametric predictive inference for diagnostic test thresholds

Abstract

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and surface are useful tools to assess the ability of diagnostic tests to discriminate between ordered classes or groups. To define these diagnostic tests, selecting the optimal thresholds that maximize the accuracy of these tests is required. One procedure that is commonly used to find the optimal thresholds is by maximizing what is known as Youden’s index. This article presents nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for selecting the optimal thresholds of a diagnostic test. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modeling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. Based on multiple future observations, the NPI approach is presented for selecting the optimal thresholds for two-group and three-group scenarios. In addition, a pairwise approach has also been presented for the three-group scenario. The article ends with an example to illustrate the proposed methods and a simulation study of the predictive performance of the proposed methods along with some classical methods such as Youden index. The NPI-based methods show some interesting results that overcome some of the issues concerning the predictive performance of Youden’s index.     

Measures for Studying Poverty in Family and Child Research

Most family scholars take the concept of poverty for granted. The variety of ways people have chosen to define and measure this concept, however, often makes it difficult to interpret or compare research results. We review and critique the ways that poverty has been measured in the family and child literatures as well as the measures that have been used to help understand variations in adaptation among those in poverty. In addition to reviewing more common measures, we include discussions of two new measures that have the potential to contribute to the literature on poverty: basic family budgets and social exclusion.     

A model for extreme wind gusts

Estimates of the largest wind gust that will occur at a given location over a specified period are required by civil engineers. Estimation is usually based on models which are derived from the limiting distributions of maxima of stationary time series and which are fitted to data on extreme gusts. In this paper we develop a model for maximum gusts which also incorporates data on hourly mean speeds through a distributional relationship between maxima and means. This joint model is closely linked to the physical processes which generate the most extreme values and thus provides a mechanism by which data on means can augment those on gusts. It is argued that this increases the credibility of extrapolation in estimates of long period return gusts. The model is shown to provide a good fit to data obtained at a location in northern England and is compared with a more traditional modelling approach, which also performs well for this site.     

Dimensions for argument and variability in child protection decision-making

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this article is to analyse the arguments presented by 181 professionals in the child protection system of the Basque Country (Spain) to justify their decisions regarding the implementation of measures related to family preservation or separation. The implementation of a case vignette demonstrated variability in professional decision-making, with 62% of professionals choosing family preservation and 38% opting for family separation. A series of argument categories which can be used by most professionals when making decisions are extracted from analysis of the content. However, in spite of using similar types of arguments, the professionals differed in the importance they attributed to such criteria and their interpretations. Differences in decision thresholds were directly related to professionals’ beliefs regarding the benefits of the interventions analysed. To reduce this variability, reflecting on these beliefs and analysing the effectiveness of interventions in child protection to incorporate evidence of professional judgement are recommended. The present study, on the one hand, identifies the argument categories used to justify decisions and, on the other, analyses the existing variability when interpreting these categories.