Opting Out and Buying Out: Wives' Earnings and Housework Time

It has been proposed that the negative association between wives' earnings and their time in housework is due to greater outsourcing of household labor by households with high-earning wives, but this hypothesis has not been tested directly. In a sample of dual-earner married couples in the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey of the Health and Retirement Study (N = 796), use of market substitutes for women's housework was found to be only weakly associated with wives' time cooking and cleaning. Furthermore, expenditures on market substitutes explain less than 15% of the earnings-housework time relationship. This suggests that use of market substitutes plays a smaller role in explaining variation in wives' time in household labor than has previously been hypothesized.     

The puzzles of daily life: The temporal orders of families when parents have non-standard work schedules

This article investigates the temporal orders of families as the daily rhythms and schedules when one or both parents work non-standard hours. Our focus is especially on the often asynchronous times of non-standard work, on one hand, and of early childhood education and care (ECEC) services and other institutions, on the other hand. The data consist of semi-structured qualitative interviews of Finnish parents with a four-year-old child. The results show that the asynchronous times generated by non-standard working hours cause a wide range of collisions both in relation to childcare and ECEC and to the division of labour between parents. The parents are ‘wrestling’, not only because of the asynchrony of their own work but also because of the ‘pedagogical rhythm’ created by ECEC professionals. However, the parents also find ways to manage time, facilitated by workplace flexibility or spousal negotiations over the sharing of responsibilities.     

Short-term forecasting with a computationally efficient nonparametric transfer function model

In this paper a semi-parametric approach is developed to model non-linear relationships in time series data using polynomial splines. Polynomial splines require very little assumption about the functional form of the underlying relationship, so they are very flexible and can be used to model highly non-linear relationships. Polynomial splines are also computationally very efficient. The serial correlation in the data is accounted for by modelling the noise as an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process, by doing so, the efficiency in nonparametric estimation is improved and correct inferences can be obtained. The explicit structure of the ARIMA model allows the correlation information to be used to improve forecasting performance. An algorithm is developed to automatically select and estimate the polynomial spline model and the ARIMA model through backfitting. This method is applied on a real-life data set to forecast hourly electricity usage. The non-linear effect of temperature on hourly electricity usage is allowed to be different at different hours of the day and days of the week. The forecasting performance of the developed method is evaluated in post-sample forecasting and compared with several well-accepted models. The results show the performance of the proposed model is comparable with a long short-term memory deep learning model.     

西方“空间批判”论著出版情况及其对我国的学术影响

自20世纪末以来,随着西方“空间批判”论著在我国的陆续出版,国内在这一领域的研究日益增多,且向多个学科扩散。通过对中国国家图书馆藏书和当当网上书店在售图书进行数据检索分析,分时段、分学科地探究了这个超过二十年的出版过程的具体状况;同时对照国外论著在我国出版的情况,以同样的数据检索方法对近二十年来我国学者在这一领域的研究成果进行分析,揭示了相关领域译作出版对国内研究的重要影响,从而得出西方“空间批判”论著的出版对我国学界相关研究具有重要的促进作用这一结论。     

A principles-focused evaluation of community mental health short-term case management

Principles-focused evaluations allow evaluators to appraise each principle that guides an organization or program. This study completed a principles-focused evaluation of a new community mental health intervention called Short Term Case Management (STCM) in Toronto, Canada. STCM is a time limited intervention for clients to address unmet needs and personalized goals over 3 months. Findings showcase that a principles-focused evaluation, assessing whether program principles are guiding, useful, inspiring, developmental and/or evaluable (GUIDE), is a practical formative evaluation approach. Specifically, offering an understanding of a novel intervention, including its key components of assessment and planning, support plan implementation and evaluation and care transitions. Findings also highlight that STCM may work best for those clients ready to participate in achieving their own goals. Future research should explore how best to apply the GUIDE framework to complex interventions, including multiple principles, to increase evaluation feasibility and focus.     

中国嫁接技艺起源的考辨与勘误

我国是有着悠久农业历史的文明古国,但由于很多珍贵古籍已经失传或是难以考证其具体成书年代,故难以明确关于我国古代嫁接的缘起和最早记载年代,导致异说纷呈。通过对大量文献的考证分析,认为中国古代可能是受天然嫁接和寄生植物的启发,或因扦插技术的发展而发明了人工嫁接技术。目前考证出比较可靠的最早记载我国人工嫁接的古籍是《尔雅》中的《释木》篇,大致出自春秋至西汉初年,更具体的成书时期还有待进一步考证。此外,对一些文献中关于植物嫁接起源的错误进行了探讨。     

A Year Then Forever: Personal Resolution Making and the Temporal Bridge of the Near Future

Based on in-depth interviews and drawing exercises with 25 resolution makers, this paper explores the use of time in structuring and enacting improvement projects of the self. Resolutions are intentional, identity-laden moments when people bring the future into the present. They provide a window into the identity work of the “near future”—an underresearched but fascinating site where individuals transition between what they see as an immediate, controllable future to a more distant one that is less certain. In attempt to mitigate the emotionally and cognitively daunting prospects of the distant future, resolution makers enlist time as a form of capital, constructing the “temporal bridge” of the near future by engaging in three interrelated processes: structuring and remembering, being flexible, and maintaining optimism.     

康德时间理论中虚无主义的问题——雅各比和海德格尔的诊断

雅各比在其康德批判中洞见到了整个现代哲学的虚无主义倾向。通过对康德“先验对象”理论和时间性的想象力学说的考察,这种倾向可以被明白地洞见到。“先验对象”被看成是思维构造出来的意识相关项,而时间性想象力就是思维的自构造和自成形活动。雅各比认为,这是混淆了构造性时间和发生性时间的结果,但费希特却在他的启发下,力图深化康德的道路。双方从而产生了多次论争,且德国古典哲学的进程受此影响极深。而这条道路的现代继承者海德格尔,同样也面对雅各比式的质疑。     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

Variable selection for first‐order Poisson integer‐valued autoregressive model with covariables

In recent years, modelling count data has become one of the most important and popular topics in time‐series analysis. At the same time, variable selection methods have become widely used in many fields as an effective statistical modelling tool. In this paper, we consider using a variable selection method to solve a modelling problem regarding the first‐order Poisson integer‐valued autoregressive (PINAR(1)) model with covariables. The PINAR(1) model with covariables is widely used in many areas because of its practicality. When using this model to deal with practical problems, multiple covariables are added to the model because it is impossible to know in advance which covariables will affect the results. But the inclusion of some insignificant covariables is almost impossible to avoid. Unfortunately, the usual estimation method is not adequate for the task of deleting the insignificant covariables that cause statistical inferences to become biased. To overcome this defect, we propose a penalised conditional least squares (PCLS) method, which can consistently select the true model. The PCLS estimator is also provided and its asymptotic properties are established. Simulation studies demonstrate that the PCLS method is effective for estimation and variable selection. One practical example is also presented to illustrate the practicability of the PCLS method.