投资者彩票偏好对股票价格行为的影响研究

首次使用百度搜索指数来度量我国股市投资者的彩票偏好程度,并从市场整体层面研究了投资者彩票偏好对股市收益及其波动的影响.分析了和彩票销售数据的相关性,结果表明彩票偏好指数是有效的.随后使用巨潮系列规模指数进行实证研究后发现:投资者彩票偏好会显著降低滞后1期的股市收益率,这种影响在中、小盘股票中体现得尤为明显;对波动率的影响方面,彩票偏好会显著降低小盘股的当期波动率,并且这种影响主要是通过移动端体现出来的,表明不同端口投资者的彩票偏好对股票价格行为的影响存在异质性.使用上证A股系列指数进行的稳健性检验发现实证结果是基本一致的.     

Preference in flower visits and partitioning in pollen diets of stingless bees in an Asian tropical rain forest

Floral resource partitioning among stingless bees (Trigona, Meliponini, Apidae) in a lowland rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia, was investigated using tree towers and walkways in a 4-year study that included a general flowering period. We obtained 100 collections of insect visitors to flowers of varying floral location and shape representing 81 plant species. The tendency of 11 species of stingless bees to visit specific flowers with a particular floral location and shape was analyzed by logistic regression analysis. This analysis showed that the proportion of flower visitor collections containing Trigona fuscobalteata and T. melanocephala differed according to floral location. The former was frequently collected at canopy and gap flowers, whereas the latter was most often collected at understory flowers. The analysis also suggested that T. erythrogastra was more rarely collected at shallow flowers than at deep flowers. Analysis of the pollen diets of T. collina, T. fuscobalteata, T. melanocephala, and T. melina revealed that similarity of pollen sources differed among the six permutated pairs of the four species. The lowest mean rank of similarity found was between T. fuscobalteata and T. melanocephala. This result supports the hypothesis that preference in visiting flowers in different locations leads to pollen resource partitioning. Received: May 14, 1997 / Accepted: April 23, 1999     

政府产业管制的理性和非理性

政府的产业管制行为存在着被经济学家潜在察觉到、但没有专门予以研究的理性和非理性的融合。从有限理性约束来理解政府的产业管制行为,可以从理性和非理性融合的角度展开分析。这种分析视角认为:经验和理论在强化政府理性行为的同时会导致政府管制行为的非理性,它反映政府选择行为的理性和非理性的融合。政府产业管制会引致的多种交易费用,这是一个未被经济理论分析引起高度关注的问题。以抽象的数学模型刻画出的由产业管制行为所引起的交易费用,是对政府理性和非理性行为之效应的一种现实分析。     

基于三角形分布的无线电频谱拍卖竞价策略研究

在频谱拍卖中,电信运营企业的竞价策略非常重要。以为电信运营企业提供最优竞价策略为思路,根据频谱对企业的价值分布特点,以及现阶段我国电信行业的市场特征和无线电运营企业频谱拍卖竞价的风险态度和偏好特点,运用不完全信息静态博弈理论,构建基于三角形分布的无线电频谱使用权拍卖竞价博弈模型,并对其均衡结果进行了分析,提出了一种综合考虑风险偏好和集中趋势的竞价策略。通过均衡分析还发现,企业估价的集中趋势或风险偏好度同向激励其均衡出价。     

An Evaluation of Stimulus Preference Assessment Methodology in Organizational Behavior Management

The organizational behavior management literature has yielded few stimulus preference assessment methodologies for use with employees. The current investigation compared three preference assessments (ranking, survey, and multiple stimulus without replacement procedures) found in the organizational behavior management literature for their ability to predict reinforcers for direct care staff members’ behavior. In the first experiment all assessments were effective for predicting reinforcers, but the results were limited by a lack of control items in the assessment. In the second experiment the survey and ranking assessments both proved to be effective for identifying reinforcers and neutral or ineffective stimuli. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

Interdependency among addictive behaviours and time/risk preferences: Discrete choice model analysis of smoking, drinking, and gambling

This paper simultaneously measures the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion, as well as investigates the interdependencies of four addictive behaviours: smoking, drinking, pachinko (a popular Japanese form of pinball gambling), and horse betting among a sample of the Japanese population. We reach two main conclusions. First, there are significant interdependencies among the four addictive behaviours, in particular between smoking and drinking and between gambling on pachinko and the horses. Second, we conclude that the higher the time preference rate and the lower the risk aversion coefficient becomes, the more likely individuals smoke, drink frequently, and gamble on pachinko and the horses.     

广州番禺垃圾焚烧发电厂冲突事件分析

发生在2009年的广州番禺垃圾焚烧发电厂公共决策事件,就系统工程冲突分析的视角而言,存在着八种可行结局,局中人广州番禺区政府和当地居民有着不同的偏好向量。从冲突中的稳定性分析可以得出两个整体稳定性结局,一个合作解和一个非合作解,而合作解的实现需要政府认真切实地对待才能实现。     

△-correct decision for location and scale parameters

In selecting t out of k populations, a △-correct decision is said to be made if the smallest location parameter for the selected populations is not more than △ below the largest location parameter for the non-selected populations. (For seal? parameters there is a similar definition in terms of ratio3.) The minimum probability of △-correct decision over the entire parameter pace is shown to be equal to the minimum probability of correct selection over a preference zone determined by △.     

我国非营利组织税收优惠法律制度完善的研究

我国为鼓励非营利组织的发展,为捐赠人和非营利组织自身都制定了一系列税收优惠措施。但是现阶段的税收优惠制度存在的诸多不足不能满足我国非营利组织的发展要求。我国应从合理区分非营利组织性质,对非营利组织的营利收入予以合理免税、改进捐赠激励机制等方面完善非营利组织的税收优惠法律制度,以便实现非营利组织的可持续发展。     

Children Selectively Trust Individuals Who Have Imitated Them

We investigated the influence of being imitated on children's subsequent trust. Five‐ to six‐year‐olds interacted with one experimenter who mimicked their choices and another experimenter who made different choices. Children were then presented with two tests. In a preference test, the experimenters offered conflicting preferences for the contents of two opaque boxes, and children were asked to choose a box. In a factual claims test, the experimenters offered conflicting claims about the referent for a novel word, and children were asked to state which object the word referred to. Children were significantly more likely to endorse both the preferences and the factual claims of the experimenter who had mimicked them. These results demonstrate that imitation is a powerful means of social influence in development.