航空快递业特性分析及其在中国发展的设想

在对航空快递业务的内涵、产品特征、运输组织特点、承运方式等特性进行分析的基础上,结合国际快递巨头加快拓展中国业务、国内航空快递业尚处于起步阶段的现状,从理顺行业管理体制和提高企业竞争力两个方面提出了中国快递业发展的设想。     

对重庆市区建立巴士快速交通的探讨

介绍巴士快速交通系统的由来、优点以及在世界各国中的成功范例。巴士快速交通系统是解决城市交通问题的革命性方案。阐明巴士快速交通系统在重庆市实施的前景。     

《道路交通安全法》76条第2款与保险公司无缘吗?--对否定论的一种反驳

当前对于<道路交通安全法>76条第2款存在不同的理解.其实,无论从文本的客观语义和保险法的基本原则,还是从保险学的基本原理和法律的实践效果看,都应该认为道路法的立法本意是:完全由行人一方故意制造的交通事故,保险公司同样不承担保险赔偿责任.     

道路拥挤收费定价分析

利用路段交通流量、交通密度及交通空间平均速度的关系，通过选择合理的参量——路段交通载量，解决了由于拥挤路段流量与费用的非单调关系产生的拥挤收费为负的问题，给出了基于交通载量及交通密度比的拥挤收费定价公式，通过建立路段社会总收益函数，分析交通路网供需特性，给出了拥挤收费起点的一个解释。     

Participatory analysis of accidents and incidents as a tool for increasing safety behaviour in fishermen. A pilot intervention study

Although occupational accidents are common in fishery, safety work is often not given priority by the fishermen. The aims of this study were to test a group-based intervention for increased activity in safety work through group discussion of accident/incident experience; to study occurred incidents/accidents and how such events were managed; and to study intervention effects on activity in safety work, risk acceptance and perceived manageability of risks. A sample of men from five crews (11 men) of Swedish fishermen participated. The study had a one group pre-test-post-test design for questionnaire data. The emphasis was on qualitative information collected during the intervention and interviews. The results indicated that accident causes could be appraised as being unmanageable even when technical solutions were possible. Psychological factors may cause incidents not to be documented or discussed. Incident experience seldom leads to preventive measures. Interaction between structural, social and psychological factors seemed to explain this. Questionnaires, observations and interview data suggested that some increase in safety work took place during the intervention. After the discussions the participants perceived risks to be less manageable. The study indicated that, although sensitive to dropout, participative safety interventions in fishery are feasible and may be effective. A longer or more intensive intervention may be necessary in order to progress from problem orientation to action orientation.     

Effects of Increased Auto Safety Belt Use Levels on Fatalities

To reduce the annual toll of highway deaths, more than 30 states have passed laws mandating the use of safety belts. All have been effective at raising safety belt use; equipped with different provisions and enforced with unequal care, however, they have done so to different degrees. The article estimates the relationship between attained belt use and fatalities averted. Monthly 1982-1986 fatality, collision, belt use, and other data from 64 areas in nine states were collected, then analyzed using a Poisson multiple regression model. The analysis indicates that an increase in belt use from 14-40% averts about 13% of fatalities; a more pronounced increase to 50% averts about 18%. An increase from 50-75% averts about 16% of remaining fatalities. Three significant conclusions emerge. First, previous estimates appear to have understated, in general, the overall effectiveness of belt use laws. Second, the benefits of programs to boost safety belt use in this country from its current level of about 50% to up to 75%, estimated on the basis of more direct evidence from U.S. data than previously available, appear to be very large. Third, Poisson and other multiple regression models including explicit allowance for other causal factors can usefully complement other statistical approaches in traffic safety studies.     

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation‐based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source‐to‐source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.     

高校在学生伤害事故中的法律责任探讨

近年来,高校在学生伤害事故中承担了过于沉重的赔偿责任,严重影响高校的正常发展。为正确处理学生伤害事故,充分保护学校和学生的合法权益,可从高校与学生之间的法律关系、归责原则、责任构成要件等几方面,对高校在学生伤害事故中的法律责任进行系统分析和研究,以期为处理高校学生伤害事故提供参考。     

Modelling Poisson marked point processes using bivariate mixture transition distributions

A class of bivariate continuous-discrete distributions is proposed to fit Poisson dynamic models in a single unified framework via bivariate mixture transition distributions (BMTDs). Potential advantages of this class over the current models include its ability to capture stretches, bursts and nonlinear patterns characterized by Internet network traffic, high-frequency financial data and many others. It models the inter-arrival times and the number of arrivals (marks) in a single unified model which benefits from the dependence structure of the data. The continuous marginal distributions of this class include as special cases the exponential, gamma, Weibull and Rayleigh distributions (for the inter-arrival times), whereas the discrete marginal distributions are geometric and negative binomial. The conditional distributions are Poisson and Erlang. Maximum-likelihood estimation is discussed and parameter estimates are obtained using an expectation–maximization algorithm, while the standard errors are estimated using the missing information principle. It is shown via real data examples that the proposed BMTD models appear to capture data features better than other competing models.     

道路交通公示语汉英翻译研究——以长株潭城市群为例

道路交通公示语既是一座城市的名片,也是一座城市文化程度的标志。在实地考察基础上收集第一手资料,结合跨文化交际原理,简要分析了长株潭城市群道路交通公示语汉英翻译中漏译、误译的原因,并为解决和消除此类问题提出了多方协调、和谐发展等有益的对策和建议。